Executive summary

Trump federalized National Guard troops and ordered them to be deployed to Los Angeles amid anti-deportation protests, against the California governor's wishes. Federal officials are calling the protests an insurrection, setting the stage for the possibility that the Insurrection Act may be invoked, which would allow the military to be used for law enforcement within the US. Forecasters estimate that there is a 40% (range: 25% to 65%) chance that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act in the next two months.

Our forecasting team updated their estimates of the probability that Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine by July 1st. Last week we forecasted a 0.4% chance for this possibility; we now estimate a ~0.04% chance (range: 0.02% to [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:20) Geopolitics

(02:22) United States

(12:06) Europe

(12:41) Ukraine

(15:10) Greenland

(15:50) Middle East

(17:19) Asia

(17:35) Africa

(18:00) Economy

(20:56) Artificial Intelligence and Technology

(23:54) Biorisks

(26:53) Climate and Nature

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Executive summary

On Sunday, Ukraine carried out a drone attack on five Russian military airbases, destroying 41 military planes, including strategic bombers. The attack took 18 months to plan and execute, and some Russian military bloggers are calling it “Russia's Pearl Harbor.”

The budget bill passed by the US House contains a provision that would allow the federal government to increase taxes on foreign investments, which would make refinancing US debt more expensive. The Trump administration halted all student visa applications and moved to revoke the visas of all Chinese students. A US federal judge granted DOGE access to a major Treasury payment system.

The IAEA found that Iran has been enriching uranium rapidly. Talks between the US and Iran over Iran's nuclear program [...]

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Outline:

(00:18) Executive summary

(02:01) Economy

(04:02) Geopolitics

(04:04) Europe

(07:49) United States

(10:54) Middle East

(13:18) Gaza

(14:01) Yemen

(14:25) Asia

(14:28) East Asia

(15:00) India/Pakistan

(15:27) Biorisks

(16:45) AI and Technology

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...and the short term-chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year and the next.

Executive summary

The fifth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded with no agreement, but the two sides agreed to meet again. US intelligence suggests that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear sites, with or without Trump's blessing, if the talks break down. Forecasters estimate a 22% chance of a US and/or Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites by the end of August.

Anthropic released their latest and most powerful AI model, Claude 4, and activated their ASL-3 safety protections for the first time. Pre-release testing revealed some worrying but rare tendencies, while users have already started to jailbreak the model.

Trump threatened to impose tariffs [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(01:25) Geopolitics

(01:28) Middle East

(04:22) Asia-Pacific

(06:10) Europe

(08:46) United States

(09:56) Africa

(10:05) Technology

(13:21) Global economy

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Executive summary

Moody's downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West.

Google announced a new coding agent, AlphaEvolve, that has creative problem-solving abilities. Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the Middle East, including joint AI ventures. Forecasters estimated a 28% chance (range, 25-30%) that the US will pass a 10-year ban on states regulating AI by the end of [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(04:16) Geopolitics

(04:19) United States

(06:06) Europe

(08:27) Asia

(09:23) Middle East

(11:17) Gaza

(12:22) Turkey

(13:24) Africa

(13:44) AI and Technology

(20:38) Biorisks

(22:01) Climate

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Executive summary

• India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, and despite initial breaches, it now seems to be holding.

• The Trump administration and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. Markets rejoiced.

• The Trump administration continues to look into ending due process for immigrants to be deported and is making arrangements to deport undocumented immigrants to many countries around the world.

• Israel is set to start a major operation in Gaza soon.

• The nonprofit OpenAI will retain control of the for-profit arm after restructuring.

Global Economy

After talks [...]

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Outline:

(00:17) Executive summary

(00:58) Global Economy

(05:14) Geopolitics

(05:17) India/Pakistan

(08:07) United States

(13:13) Europe

(15:17) Middle East

(16:39) Gaza

(18:47) Syria

(18:54) Yemen

(19:50) Iran

(20:31) Africa

(21:07) Biorisk

(22:11) AI

(25:49) Climate and Nature

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Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, and Lisa discuss the possibility of nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan.

Timestamps

(00:16:00) - Intro

(00:43:00) - Background on the conflict

(02:26:13) - Direct forecasts of nuclear weapons use

(15:45:10) - The role of other nations

(20:26:09) - What if Pakistan collapses?

(22:45:16) - Russia's incentives in global conflicts

(25:40:08) - What are the forecasters looking out for next?

(29:28:06) - Outro

Transcript

The transcript is AI-generated and slightly differs from the phrasing used in the recording.

Rai Surhttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/the-risk-of-nuclear-war-between-india

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Executive summary

• Shortages of some goods expected in the US starting later this month, because of tariffs.

• The power outage on the Iberian Peninsula was the worst in Europe since 2003, and Europe may have been close to a more widespread blackout.

• Trump wants to involve the military in policing within the US.

• Negotiations between the US and Iran over its nuclear weapons program have stalled.

• Microsoft will host xAI's Grok model in its cloud service, in a move to reduce Microsoft's dependency on OpenAI.

• Gaza is running out of food, and the UN warns of famine.

• India-Pakistan tensions remain high.

Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-182025

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Executive summary

After a terrorist attack in Kashmir left 26 dead, relations between India and Pakistan sharply deteriorated, culminating in the exchange of fire across the border between the two countries. Forecasters examined the possibility of escalation.

The third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded. On the same day, a blast at Iran's Bandar Abbas port left hundreds injured, while Trump had a positive face-to-face meeting with President Zelensky in the Vatican City following another rocky week for US-Ukraine relations.

OpenAI's new models suggest that the length of tasks that AIs can do is now doubling roughly every four months.

Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-172025

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Also Iran nuclear talks, dollar falling, trade disruptions.

Executive summary

Fallout from Trump's tariffs continues: trade patterns are shifting, Trump is feuding with the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the dollar is falling relative to other currencies, and US imports and exports are plummeting, as are manufacturing indicators in the US.

The Trump administration continues to clash with the judicial branch about deportations without due process. The Supreme Court halted another round of deportations to the jail in El Salvador. You can read our brief on this topic here. Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far.

The US and Iran have concluded two rounds of nuclear talks and a third is [...]

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Outline:

(00:26) Executive summary

(01:25) Economy

(04:54) AI and Technology

(04:58) OpenAI

(06:59) Other AI news

(08:13) Other Technology

(08:23) Bio

(10:40) Geopolitics

(10:43) United States

(14:29) Asia

(16:21) Africa

(17:25) Middle East

(18:00) Iran

(18:44) Gaza

(19:04) Yemen

(19:40) Weird

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Forecaster perspectives

Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” (65% to 100%) the statement that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far. On the one hand, the Trump administration has done nothing to “facilitate” bringing Abrego García back to the US, and the White House's tweet shown above clearly indicates that it won’t try to; on the other hand, it could yet still do so when the current news cycle subsides. On April 17th, forecasters estimated a 66% chance (50% to ~100%) that Abrego García will not be brought back to the US within the next 60 days (by June 17).

Our forecasters estimate a 14% (range, 10% to 25%) probability that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act by July [...]

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Outline:

(00:11) Forecaster perspectives

(03:19) Summary of events

(03:34) The Abrego García US Supreme Court case.

(05:45) Developments since the Abrego García Supreme Court case

(08:16) Next steps for the court case

(09:45) Plans for further deportations

(11:38) The Insurrection Act

(12:58) Implications and recommendations

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