Sentinel Minutes

By Sentinel Team

What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out.

Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team ... more

Download on the App Store

Download on the App Store

Get it on Google Play

FAQs about Sentinel Minutes:

How many episodes does Sentinel Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 66 episodes available.

Sentinel Minutes episodes:

September 08, 2025“Possible postwar Ukraine security guarantees ready, chikungunya outbreak grows in China, weak jobs numbers suggest Fed rate cut likely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Executive Summary

Economy: Weak August US jobs numbers make a September Fed rate cut look more likely. Bond markets are showing signs of stress, and gold prices continue to rise, reflecting growing risks.

Geopolitics: French President Macron said 26 nations are ready to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine. China hosted foreign leaders for talks on economic cooperation and held a large military parade.

Biorisk: A large chikungunya outbreak continues to grow in China.

Artificial Intelligence: OpenAI faces significant criticism from the attorneys general of California and Delaware over the recent cases of ChatGPT-associated suicide and murder-suicide.
Forecastshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/possible-postwar-ukraine-security
---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
24min
September 01, 2025“Houthi PM and cabinet killed, RFK Jr. fires CDC director, Trump fires Federal Reserve Governor, $200M pro-AI lobbying group launched || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #35/2025.” by Nuño Sempere
43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September.

Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: Israeli strike on Yemen kills Houthi prime minister and several cabinet members.

Biorisk: New World screwworm spreading northward through the Americas. RFK Jr. fired the CDC director, replacing her with a Thiel protégé.

Artificial Intelligence: Anthropic identifies AI-driven cyberattacks. $200M pro-AI lobbying group started by OpenAI President and a16z.

Economy: Trump attempted to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over irregularities in her real estate filings, raising the prospect of reduced Fed independence in the future.
Forecaster estimates:

42% probability that the Supreme Court upholds at least three quarters of Trump's tariffs by [...]

---
Outline:
(00:28) Executive summary
(01:53) Geopolitics
(01:56) Middle East
(04:47) Europe
(05:43) United States
(07:51) The Rest of the Americas
(08:50) Asia
(09:42) Africa
(10:31) Economy
(15:16) Artificial Intelligence
(19:02) Biorisks
(23:17) Other

---
First published:
September 1st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthi-pm-and-cabinet-killed-rfk

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
24min
August 25, 2025“UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, anpaure
22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025.

Executive summary
Top items:

Famine: The UN declared a famine in Gaza.

Geopolitics: Putin clarifies Russia's stringent terms for a ceasefire. The US is moving Navy ships with 2.2K Marines to waters off the coast of Venezuela.

Tech and AI: DeepSeek released its V3.1 model, a more capable open-source model.

Biorisk: The American Academy of Pediatrics’ recommendations for Covid vaccines for children now differ from those of the CDC; recommendations that diverge from the CDC's official list are not shielded from liability.
Forecaster estimates:

What is the chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between [...]

---
Outline:
(00:31) Executive summary
(02:07) Geopolitics
(02:09) Europe
(05:08) Middle East
(05:11) Gaza
(08:06) Iran
(08:29) Yemen
(08:40) United States
(12:00) The Rest of the Americas
(13:58) Asia
(14:00) South Asia
(14:29) East Asia
(16:52) Africa
(17:46) Artificial Intelligence
(20:34) Economy
(21:46) Other technology
(22:15) Biorisks
(22:57) Climate and Nature

---
First published:
August 25th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/un-famine-declaration-us-moving-22k

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
24min
August 18, 2025“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK.

Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”

And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military.
Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/a8f8dd54-e796-4d55-af82-882c3a2f7dd6
---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
14min
August 18, 2025“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK.

Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”

And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military.
We are bottlenecked on distribution, so we’d appreciate it if you shared our work with your networks. [...]

---
Outline:
(00:29) Executive summary
(01:30) Geopolitics
(01:33) Trump/Putin summit in Alaska
(05:46) Middle East
(06:57) Europe
(07:44) United States
(09:11) Elsewhere in the Americas
(09:21) Asia
(10:19) Africa
(10:53) Artificial Intelligence
(13:02) Biorisk

---
First published:
August 18th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-putin-talks-end-with-no-ceasefire

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
15min
August 11, 2025“Israel preparing to take over Gaza City, ceasefire in Ukraine unlikely to happen soon, Trump deploying National Guard in DC, GPT-5 released | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #32/2025” by Nuño Sempere
Status: green

Executive summary
Key items this week are:

Economy and trade: Trump's new tariff rates for most of the world took effect on August 7. Trump partially followed through on threats of secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners if there wasn’t a stop to the Ukraine war by last Friday, by placing an additional 25% tariff on India, which has been buying Russian oil, starting near the end of this month.

Geopolitics: Putin and US envoy Witkoff met in Moscow to discuss conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump and Putin plan to meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss a path towards a ceasefire, without Ukraine. Israel's security cabinet approved a plan to take over Gaza City. [...]

---
Outline:
(00:21) Executive summary
(02:33) Biorisk
(04:09) Geopolitics
(04:12) Russia/Ukraine
(07:48) Middle East
(07:51) Israel and Gaza
(09:22) Iran
(11:26) United States
(14:53) Asia-Pacific
(15:59) Europe and the Caucasus
(16:27) Africa
(16:58) Tech and AI
(21:10) Economy
(21:12) Tariffs
(22:30) US housing market
(23:41) Climate and Nature

---
First published:
August 11th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/israel-preparing-to-take-over-gaza

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
26min
August 04, 2025“Gaza hunger, US GDP growth driven by AI capex, US fires labor statistics commissioner | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2025” by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary
Key items this week are:

Economy and trade: Trump announced new tariffs. US GDP growth is driven by AI capex spending while labor slumps. In response to an unfavorable labor report, Trump fired the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Geopolitics: UK, France and Canada announced their intention to recognize a Palestinian state. Hunger is widespread in Gaza and might meet the technical definition of famine later this year, which could serve as a Schelling point for change.

Biorisks: Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever and Chikungunya are spreading. A paper on an AI pipeline for AI-aided discovery of antivirals provides hope for a favorable defense/offense balance change for AI.

AI: Mark Zuckerberg wrote about personal superintelligence [...]

---
Outline:
(00:17) Executive summary
(03:05) Economy
(06:47) Geopolitics
(06:50) Middle East
(12:46) United States
(15:24) Asia-Pacific
(17:31) Europe
(19:43) Africa
(20:13) Biorisk
(21:00) Artificial Intelligence
(21:03) Meta and Mark
(23:36) Climate and Nature

---
First published:
August 4th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/gaza-hunger-us-gdp-growth-driven

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
25min
July 28, 2025″🟢 Thailand v. Cambodia clashes erupted and resolved, White House AI Action Plan released, Anthropic faces billion-dollar lawsuit | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2025″ by Nuño Sempere
Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached...

Executive summary
Key items this week are:

Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Zelensky faced his first large-scale domestic protests over a law weakening the independence of anti-corruption bodies.

Economy and trade: The US and the EU reached a trade deal that would tariff EU goods coming into America at 15%. A similar agreement was reached between the US and Japan, which will now also face 15% tariffs on its goods [...]

---
Outline:
(00:27) Executive summary
(02:28) Geopolitics
(02:31) Asia
(02:34) Thailand and Cambodia
(04:15) China and Taiwan
(05:51) Singapore
(06:12) Europe
(09:46) United States
(11:40) Africa
(12:01) Middle East
(12:03) Iran
(13:21) Gaza
(14:09) Syria
(14:44) Afghanistan
(15:06) Economy
(16:35) AI and Technology
(24:41) Biorisks
(26:01) Climate and Nature

---
First published:
July 28th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/thailand-v-cambodia-clashes-erupted

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
27min
July 21, 2025 ″🟢 Taiwan defense rehearsals, Israel-Syria ceasefire, IMO Gold at OpenAI | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #29/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com
Executive summary
Taiwan conducted its largest-ever defense drills to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion, while the US has been pushing Japan and Australia to clarify whether they would get involved in a US-China war over Taiwan. Forecasters estimated the probability of a Chinese invasion by 2027 conditional on Japan saying it would not intervene to be 11.5%, and 22% conditional on Trump or the Defense Secretary saying the US would not intervene.
In the Middle East, the Houthis continue to attack Israel, and Israel responded today with strikes on a Houthi-controlled port in Yemen. Israel also intervened in Syria following renewed sectarian violence between Druze and Sunni Bedouin groups, later reaching a ceasefire deal with the Syrian government.
OpenAI launched ChatGPT Agent and [...]

---
Outline:
(00:21) Executive summary
(01:32) Geopolitics
(01:35) Asia-Pacific
(03:43) Middle East
(05:47) Europe
(06:52) United States
(08:20) Africa
(08:30) Technology
(14:21) Biorisk
(14:40) Economy

---

First published:
July 21st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/taiwan-defense-rehearsals-israel

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
17min
July 14, 2025“Houthis sink ships, US tariffs for US allies and secondary tariff threats for Russia, Grok and Kimi model releases | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com
The Houthis sank two ships last week, new powerful open source model released.

Executive summary
The Houthis sank two ships last week, and forecasters estimated the following:

Will the Houthis sink at least two ships by August 15? 51% (40% to 60%)

Will the US attack the Houthis in the next 30 days? 26.5% (20% to 36%)

By the end of August, will the US lower the copper tariff from the promised August 1 rate of 50% to 25% or less? 61% (45% to 70%)
xAI released Grok 4, and a Chinese lab, Moonshot AI, released a powerful open-source model, Kimi K2, with 1T parameters.
Trump announced another volley of tariff threats unless deals are reached by August 1.
[...]

---
Outline:
(00:29) Executive summary
(01:42) Geopolitics
(01:45) Middle East
(03:18) Iran
(04:03) Europe
(05:52) United States
(07:01) Asia
(07:48) Africa
(08:02) Economy
(09:12) AI and Technology
(12:34) Biorisks
(13:10) Climate and Nature

---
First published:
July 14th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthis-sink-ships-us-tariffs-for

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
15min

FAQs about Sentinel Minutes:

How many episodes does Sentinel Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 66 episodes available.