Sentinel Minutes

By Sentinel Team

What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out.

Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team ... more

Download on the App Store

Download on the App Store

Get it on Google Play

FAQs about Sentinel Minutes:

How many episodes does Sentinel Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 51 episodes available.

Sentinel Minutes episodes:

October 13, 2025″🟢 Gaza ceasefire agreed, Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China, OpenAI subpoena controversy || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #41/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. The Trump administration rejected an offer from Maduro that would’ve allowed the US increased access to Venezuela's oil and gold resources and reduced Venezuela's ties to China and Russia.

Economy: Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on imports from China. The S&P 500 fell by 2.71% on Friday but partially rebounded on Monday morning.

Tech and AI: OpenAI's used subpoenas against advocacy orgs described by critics as overreaching and intimidating. Its deal with AMD resulted in the chipmaker's stock price soaring.
Forecasts:

Forecasters assigned a 55% probability (range: 40% to 70%) to there being fewer than 150 deaths in [...]

---
Outline:
(00:21) Executive summary
(02:40) Geopolitics
(02:43) Middle East
(05:44) The Americas
(05:47) South America
(07:42) United States
(09:38) Asia
(10:09) Africa
(10:28) Europe
(10:38) Technology and artificial intelligence
(13:02) Economy
(15:01) Biorisk

---
First published:
October 13th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/gaza-ceasefire-agreed-trump-threatens

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
16min
October 06, 2025“California AI bill passed, Trump tries to send National Guard to Portland, US economy warning signs | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #40/2025” by Nuño Sempere
Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries.

Executive summary
Top items

Geopolitics: Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries.

US politics: The Trump administration was blocked three times from sending National Guard troops to Portland.

Artificial Intelligence: AI progress continues with the releases of Claude 4.5 and Sora 2. California makes addressing AI catastrophic risk a legal requirement. US Senators Hawley and Blumenthal introduce a bill to address the worst risks of AI.

Economy: The US economy continues to display indicators of distress.

Biorisks: ∅

Climate and nature: ∅
Forecaster estimates:

Will [...]

---
Outline:
(00:25) Executive summary
(02:14) Geopolitics
(02:17) Europe
(04:51) United States
(06:46) The Rest of the Americas
(08:56) Middle East and South Asia
(11:02) Africa
(11:29) Asia-Pacific
(11:56) Economy
(14:41) Artificial Intelligence
(17:55) Biological risks
(18:41) Climate and Nature

---
First published:
October 6th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
20min
September 29, 2025“EU may shoot down Russian jets next time, US gov shutdown, no global AI red lines | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising

Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising.

US Politics: US government may face a shutdown, former FBI director indicted.

Artificial Intelligence: USG advisors against global governance of AI.

Climate and nature: Up to half of Prochlorococcus, a plankton at the bottom of the ocean food chain that produces about 5% of the planet's oxygen through photosynthesis, may die off if the climate significantly rises.
Forecaster estimates:

1.2% that [...]

---
Outline:
(00:29) Executive summary
(02:10) Geopolitics
(02:12) Europe
(05:13) United States
(07:35) The Rest of the Americas
(08:38) Middle East
(09:17) Asia
(09:45) Economy
(10:28) Artificial Intelligence
(10:31) Policy
(14:08) Chips, Datacenters, and Investments
(14:39) Evals and Research
(16:05) Other AI
(17:26) Other technological risks
(18:03) Climate and Nature

---
First published:
September 29th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-may-shoot-down-russian-jets-next

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
21min
September 22, 2025″🟡 US comedian’s show suspended after government pressure, Russian jets flew over Estonia, open-source AIs designed new genome variants || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #38/2025″ by Nuño Sempere
Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: Russian jets entered Estonia's airspace. An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could bring Saudi Arabia under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella.

US Politics: A US comedian's show was suspended after the FCC chair exerted pressure on his network and on companies that own local TV stations. The Trump administration plans to announce actions targeting left-wing groups.

Tech and AI: Open-source AIs were used to design variants of a simple virus genome, eliminating the need for most lab work.

Economy: The US Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, in line with expectations. The Shiller PE ratio is 39.95, the highest since the dotcom bubble.
Forecaster estimates:

What is the chance that Maduro will [...]

---
Outline:
(00:19) Executive summary
(02:48) Geopolitics
(02:51) Europe
(05:28) United States
(09:46) The Rest of the Americas
(12:48) Middle East and Asia
(12:51) Pakistan-Saudi Arabia agreement
(13:58) Lebanon and Syria
(14:06) Iran
(14:19) Israel and Gaza
(14:51) Indian subcontinent
(15:38) Asia-Pacific
(16:25) Africa
(17:03) Economy
(18:04) Artificial Intelligence
(23:12) Other technology
(24:51) Biorisks
(25:55) Climate and Nature

---
First published:
September 22nd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-comedians-show-suspended-after

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
27min
September 15, 2025″🟢 Russian drones shot down over Poland, Israel strikes Qatar, Trump ally assassinated | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
OpenAI and Oracle signed a $300B deal, which would lead to Oracle displacing Microsoft to become OpenAI's largest compute provider; the deal lifted Oracle's stock price.

Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: Multiple Russian drones entered Poland's airspace, some of which were shot down. Forecasters examined the probability of a Russian incursion by air, land or sea that (accidentally or deliberately) results in the death of a citizen of a NATO country within the next 6 months. Israel carried out an airstrike on Qatar, killing multiple members of Hamas’ political leadership. The US condemned the strike.

US Politics: A close Trump ally, conservative activist Charlie Kirk, was assassinated in the US state of Utah, leading to predictions of a rise in [...]

---
Outline:
(00:32) Executive summary
(02:16) Geopolitics
(02:19) Europe
(05:09) Middle East
(06:18) The Americas
(06:21) The United States
(08:06) Venezuela
(09:27) Brazil
(09:54) Asia-Pacific
(11:20) Technology and artificial intelligence
(15:38) Economy

---
First published:
September 15th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/russian-drones-shot-down-over-poland

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
19min
September 08, 2025“Possible postwar Ukraine security guarantees ready, chikungunya outbreak grows in China, weak jobs numbers suggest Fed rate cut likely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Executive Summary

Economy: Weak August US jobs numbers make a September Fed rate cut look more likely. Bond markets are showing signs of stress, and gold prices continue to rise, reflecting growing risks.

Geopolitics: French President Macron said 26 nations are ready to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine. China hosted foreign leaders for talks on economic cooperation and held a large military parade.

Biorisk: A large chikungunya outbreak continues to grow in China.

Artificial Intelligence: OpenAI faces significant criticism from the attorneys general of California and Delaware over the recent cases of ChatGPT-associated suicide and murder-suicide.
Forecastshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/possible-postwar-ukraine-security
---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
24min
September 01, 2025“Houthi PM and cabinet killed, RFK Jr. fires CDC director, Trump fires Federal Reserve Governor, $200M pro-AI lobbying group launched || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #35/2025.” by Nuño Sempere
43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September.

Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: Israeli strike on Yemen kills Houthi prime minister and several cabinet members.

Biorisk: New World screwworm spreading northward through the Americas. RFK Jr. fired the CDC director, replacing her with a Thiel protégé.

Artificial Intelligence: Anthropic identifies AI-driven cyberattacks. $200M pro-AI lobbying group started by OpenAI President and a16z.

Economy: Trump attempted to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over irregularities in her real estate filings, raising the prospect of reduced Fed independence in the future.
Forecaster estimates:

42% probability that the Supreme Court upholds at least three quarters of Trump's tariffs by [...]

---
Outline:
(00:28) Executive summary
(01:53) Geopolitics
(01:56) Middle East
(04:47) Europe
(05:43) United States
(07:51) The Rest of the Americas
(08:50) Asia
(09:42) Africa
(10:31) Economy
(15:16) Artificial Intelligence
(19:02) Biorisks
(23:17) Other

---
First published:
September 1st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthi-pm-and-cabinet-killed-rfk

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
24min
August 25, 2025“UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, anpaure
22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025.

Executive summary
Top items:

Famine: The UN declared a famine in Gaza.

Geopolitics: Putin clarifies Russia's stringent terms for a ceasefire. The US is moving Navy ships with 2.2K Marines to waters off the coast of Venezuela.

Tech and AI: DeepSeek released its V3.1 model, a more capable open-source model.

Biorisk: The American Academy of Pediatrics’ recommendations for Covid vaccines for children now differ from those of the CDC; recommendations that diverge from the CDC's official list are not shielded from liability.
Forecaster estimates:

What is the chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between [...]

---
Outline:
(00:31) Executive summary
(02:07) Geopolitics
(02:09) Europe
(05:08) Middle East
(05:11) Gaza
(08:06) Iran
(08:29) Yemen
(08:40) United States
(12:00) The Rest of the Americas
(13:58) Asia
(14:00) South Asia
(14:29) East Asia
(16:52) Africa
(17:46) Artificial Intelligence
(20:34) Economy
(21:46) Other technology
(22:15) Biorisks
(22:57) Climate and Nature

---
First published:
August 25th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/un-famine-declaration-us-moving-22k

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
24min
August 18, 2025“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK.

Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”

And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military.
Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/a8f8dd54-e796-4d55-af82-882c3a2f7dd6
---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
14min
August 18, 2025“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK.

Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”

And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military.
We are bottlenecked on distribution, so we’d appreciate it if you shared our work with your networks. [...]

---
Outline:
(00:29) Executive summary
(01:30) Geopolitics
(01:33) Trump/Putin summit in Alaska
(05:46) Middle East
(06:57) Europe
(07:44) United States
(09:11) Elsewhere in the Americas
(09:21) Asia
(10:19) Africa
(10:53) Artificial Intelligence
(13:02) Biorisk

---
First published:
August 18th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-putin-talks-end-with-no-ceasefire

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
...more
15min

FAQs about Sentinel Minutes:

How many episodes does Sentinel Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 51 episodes available.