Executive summary

The Trump administration backtracked from his tariff plan, reducing tariffs from most countries to 10%, but imposing tariffs of 145% on China, which answered with 125% tariffs on US imports and export controls on rare earth metals.

The US saw protests against Trump and DOGE, and the US Supreme court ruled that the administration must facilitate the return of an immigrant wrongly deported to El Salvador.

OpenAI is slashing the amount of safety testing they will do of their new AI models, from months down to days, and Google launched a new AI chip for inference.

Negotiations between the US and Iran on its nuclear program are starting, reducing our estimated probability of a US strike to 15%.

The number of US [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(01:22) Economy

(04:26) Tech and AI

(05:57) Geopolitics

(05:59) Middle East

(06:02) Iran

(08:09) Gaza

(08:26) Yemen

(08:59) Africa

(09:20) Americas

(13:10) Asia

(14:33) Europe

(16:10) Biorisk

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Executive summary

China carried out more aggressive live-fire military exercises around Taiwan. The US relocated missile batteries from the Pacific into the Middle East, raising some concerns that it was leaving the Pacific region vulnerable.

Le Pen, the frontrunner for the 2027 French elections, was barred from running in those elections after being found guilty of embezzlement.

Global stock markets have been falling sharply since Trump announced new tariffs on April 2; these new tariffs are larger than those imposed by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. Crude oil prices have been falling as well, in another sign of economic weakening. Sentinel forecasters estimate that there is a 63% chance of a global recession this year.

Meta started releasing distilled models from their Llama [...]

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Outline:

(01:15) Global Economy

(04:09) Geopolitics

(04:11) US

(07:44) Europe

(09:03) Middle East

(10:48) Asia

(11:49) Africa

(12:20) Biorisk

(12:37) Artificial Intelligence

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Executive summary

Tensions between the US and Iran continued, as Iran replied to Trump's letter demanding that a new nuclear agreement be reached, and the US directed more military assets to positions near Iran. Last week, we estimated that there is a 1 in 3 chance that the US will strike Iran by the end of April, but have since lowered our estimate a bit.

There are large-scale demonstrations in Turkey, although our forecasters assign only a ~4% chance that Erdoğan will be out of power by the end of the year.

Food is running out in Gaza as Israel's blockade continues, and some demonstrators protested against Hamas.

The Chinese state and media appear to be emphasizing more anti-Taiwan-independence sentiment, in a way reminiscent [...]

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Outline:

(01:24) Geopolitics

(01:27) Middle East

(01:52) 1 in 3 chance that US will strike Iran by end of April

(04:50) Europe

(06:54) Asia-Pacific

(08:01) The Americas

(10:08) Africa

(10:49) Tech

(12:54) Biorisks

(13:40) Global economy

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Sentinel forecasters jointly estimate that there is a 36% chance (range, 25%-60%) that the US will launch airstrikes against nuclear weapons program facilities in Iran by the end of April, starting most likely between April 10 and April 25 and ending likely before May 1.

The US military is bringing approximately six B-2 stealth bombers to a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean that is well-positioned for staging attacks on either Yemen or Iran. The B-2 bomber is one of the only US military aircraft capable of carrying the GBU-57A/B MOP, the largest of the US "bunker buster" bombs that can penetrate fortified underground facilities; it can also drop a wide range of other bombs, including smaller bunker busters. In addition, three C-17 cargo aircraft have flown to Diego Garcia to support the B-2s, and one to support KC-135 Stratotankers that refuel [...]

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:51) Forecaster Estimates

(01:56) Geopolitics

(01:59) United States

(04:32) Europe

(06:00) Middle East

(08:16) Africa

(08:57) Asia

(10:26) Biorisk

(10:39) Tech and AI

(13:39) Climate

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Status: Greenish 🟢

Executive summary

Forecasters believe there's an 18% chance (range: 4%-50%) that there will be a famine in any part of Gaza by the end of 2025, according to the UN and its Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). A Category 5 rating would result in a positive resolution, with the last IPC update suggesting that all of Gaza was in Category 4.

As the US is becoming a less reliable geopolitical ally, countries from France to South Korea are making their own moves. The UK Government hosted military leaders in London to plan for a possible deployment of troops to Ukraine, with the French President saying that Russia's permission is not needed for this. On whether there will be a [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(02:25) Long tail of events

(02:35) Biorisks

(06:13) Geopolitics

(06:17) Middle East

(07:16) Europe

(09:33) Asia-Pacific

(10:00) The Americas

(12:23) Tech

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:52) Forecaster Estimates

(01:54) Geopolitics

(01:57) United States

(04:27) Europe

(05:52) Middle East

(08:01) Africa

(08:40) Asia

(10:10) Biorisk

(10:24) Tech and AI

(13:25) Climate

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:53) Forecaster Estimates

(02:01) Geopolitics

(02:04) United States

(04:47) Europe

(06:19) Middle East

(08:34) Africa

(09:17) Asia

(10:52) Biorisk

(11:08) Tech and AI

(14:26) Climate

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Market uncertainty and political turmoil over Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China

• Increasing US-China tensions

• Anthropic’s Claude Code displays reward-hacking tendencies.

Forecaster Estimates

Taiwan has been a hot topic in the last week as China ramps up their military exercises. On the question of whether China would attempt to invade Taiwan by 2030, forecasters estimated a 43% chance of this occurring (range: 20% to 70%).

There has been significant speculation online over whether OpenAI has lost its edge. Our estimates on which AI company currently has the most capable general-purpose AI model internally are:

• P(OpenAI is in the lead) = 40%

• P(Google DeepMind is in the lead) = [...]

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Outline:

(00:35) Forecaster Estimates

(01:34) Geopolitics

(01:37) United States

(05:54) Canada

(06:07) Europe

(09:00) Middle East

(10:02) Africa

(10:28) Asia

(13:13) Biorisk

(14:35) Artificial Intelligence

(19:39) Miscellanea

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