Status: green

Executive summary

Key items this week are:

• Economy and trade: Trump's new tariff rates for most of the world took effect on August 7. Trump partially followed through on threats of secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners if there wasn’t a stop to the Ukraine war by last Friday, by placing an additional 25% tariff on India, which has been buying Russian oil, starting near the end of this month.

• Geopolitics: Putin and US envoy Witkoff met in Moscow to discuss conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump and Putin plan to meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss a path towards a ceasefire, without Ukraine. Israel's security cabinet approved a plan to take over Gaza City. [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:33) Biorisk

(04:09) Geopolitics

(04:12) Russia/Ukraine

(07:48) Middle East

(07:51) Israel and Gaza

(09:22) Iran

(11:26) United States

(14:53) Asia-Pacific

(15:59) Europe and the Caucasus

(16:27) Africa

(16:58) Tech and AI

(21:10) Economy

(21:12) Tariffs

(22:30) US housing market

(23:41) Climate and Nature

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Executive summary

Key items this week are:

• Economy and trade: Trump announced new tariffs. US GDP growth is driven by AI capex spending while labor slumps. In response to an unfavorable labor report, Trump fired the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Geopolitics: UK, France and Canada announced their intention to recognize a Palestinian state. Hunger is widespread in Gaza and might meet the technical definition of famine later this year, which could serve as a Schelling point for change.

• Biorisks: Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever and Chikungunya are spreading. A paper on an AI pipeline for AI-aided discovery of antivirals provides hope for a favorable defense/offense balance change for AI.

• AI: Mark Zuckerberg wrote about personal superintelligence [...]

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Outline:

(00:17) Executive summary

(03:05) Economy

(06:47) Geopolitics

(06:50) Middle East

(12:46) United States

(15:24) Asia-Pacific

(17:31) Europe

(19:43) Africa

(20:13) Biorisk

(21:00) Artificial Intelligence

(21:03) Meta and Mark

(23:36) Climate and Nature

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Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached...

Executive summary

Key items this week are:

• Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Zelensky faced his first large-scale domestic protests over a law weakening the independence of anti-corruption bodies.

• Economy and trade: The US and the EU reached a trade deal that would tariff EU goods coming into America at 15%. A similar agreement was reached between the US and Japan, which will now also face 15% tariffs on its goods [...]

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Outline:

(00:27) Executive summary

(02:28) Geopolitics

(02:31) Asia

(02:34) Thailand and Cambodia

(04:15) China and Taiwan

(05:51) Singapore

(06:12) Europe

(09:46) United States

(11:40) Africa

(12:01) Middle East

(12:03) Iran

(13:21) Gaza

(14:09) Syria

(14:44) Afghanistan

(15:06) Economy

(16:35) AI and Technology

(24:41) Biorisks

(26:01) Climate and Nature

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Executive summary

Taiwan conducted its largest-ever defense drills to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion, while the US has been pushing Japan and Australia to clarify whether they would get involved in a US-China war over Taiwan. Forecasters estimated the probability of a Chinese invasion by 2027 conditional on Japan saying it would not intervene to be 11.5%, and 22% conditional on Trump or the Defense Secretary saying the US would not intervene.

In the Middle East, the Houthis continue to attack Israel, and Israel responded today with strikes on a Houthi-controlled port in Yemen. Israel also intervened in Syria following renewed sectarian violence between Druze and Sunni Bedouin groups, later reaching a ceasefire deal with the Syrian government.

OpenAI launched ChatGPT Agent and [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(01:32) Geopolitics

(01:35) Asia-Pacific

(03:43) Middle East

(05:47) Europe

(06:52) United States

(08:20) Africa

(08:30) Technology

(14:21) Biorisk

(14:40) Economy

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The Houthis sank two ships last week, new powerful open source model released.

Executive summary

The Houthis sank two ships last week, and forecasters estimated the following:

• Will the Houthis sink at least two ships by August 15? 51% (40% to 60%)

• Will the US attack the Houthis in the next 30 days? 26.5% (20% to 36%)

• By the end of August, will the US lower the copper tariff from the promised August 1 rate of 50% to 25% or less? 61% (45% to 70%)

xAI released Grok 4, and a Chinese lab, Moonshot AI, released a powerful open-source model, Kimi K2, with 1T parameters.

Trump announced another volley of tariff threats unless deals are reached by August 1.

[...]

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Outline:

(00:29) Executive summary

(01:42) Geopolitics

(01:45) Middle East

(03:18) Iran

(04:03) Europe

(05:52) United States

(07:01) Asia

(07:48) Africa

(08:02) Economy

(09:12) AI and Technology

(12:34) Biorisks

(13:10) Climate and Nature

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Executive summary

A major budget reconciliation bill (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) passed in the US and was signed into law—it's massive and might have impacts for your industry. In response, Musk announced the creation of a new “America Party”. Geopolitical conflicts did not flare up.

This week, forecasters produced estimates on four questions:

• Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that begins within the next 30 days and holds for at least a week? 44% (35% to 55%)

• WIll Israel and Hamas still be fighting at the end of the year? 64% (45% to 77%)

• Will a ban or moratorium on states regulating AI be part of federal law by 2027? 17% (10% to 35%)

• What's the [...]

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Outline:

(00:17) Executive summary

(01:24) Geopolitics

(01:27) Middle East

(05:05) United States

(06:33) Europe

(08:38) Asia

(09:17) Africa

(10:02) Economy

(10:53) Artificial Intelligence

(13:19) Climate

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Iran, NATO increased spending, video addictions.

Executive summary

After US airstrikes damaged Iranian nuclear facilities, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has so far largely held. Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei and the Islamic Republic remain in power; Khamenei is still in hiding and may not be well. Iranian officials have expressed their intent to resume the country's nuclear program, which is a sticking point for potential future negotiations with the US.

Forecasters estimate an 8% (5% to 30%) chance of regime change in Iran by the end of August, and a 19% (10% to 70%) chance by the end of the year. On whether Khamenei specifically will officially be in power, their estimates are 85% (65% to 92%) [...]

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Outline:

(00:15) Executive summary

(01:59) Geopolitics

(02:02) Middle East

(02:05) Iran

(08:44) Gaza

(09:44) United States

(09:47) Legal

(10:37) Tariffs and trade

(13:03) Europe

(14:07) Asia

(14:31) Africa

(14:49) AI and Technology

(18:12) Biorisks

(19:21) Climate and Nature

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Executive summary

The US attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, likely setting back their nuclear program by by years, but the locations and future of Iran's nuclear stockpile remain unknown.

A weakened Iran will likely respond meekly, although forecasters now deem it more likely than not that Iran will attack a US base in the region. A nuclear detonation in the Middle East is extremely unlikely.

Trump suggested that regime change could “Make Iran Great Again”.

India continues to oppose the key Indus Waters Treaty that it had previously agreed with Pakistan.

Anthropic continued its research into blackmail by AI models.

Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-bombs-iran-india-again-rejects

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and, the Gentle Singularity.

Executive summary

• Israel attacked Iran's nuclear weapons program and military leadership - Israel and Iran are now at war

• Anti-ICE and No Kings protests took place in over 2,100 locations in the US and remained largely peaceful

• Trump steps up deportation plans, backs down from targeting agricultural, hotel and restaurant workers

• China simultaneously deployed two aircraft carriers in the Pacific

• The US seeks a peace deal in the Rwanda-Congo conflict by July

• Sam Altman writes about the “Gentle singularity”

• The bird flu virus strain that infected a Michigan dairy farmer is capable of airborne transmission

Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/israel-attacks-iran-us-protests-continue

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until midnight NYC time.

This article was collaboratively written by: Nuño Sempere, Brian Yu, Kati Conen, Alex Lyzhov, Jaeho Lee and 30+ other contributors. Those of us who are in the US are going to sleep, but the document continues being available and freely editable here, and by the time US readers wake up many new developments may have arisen.

Last week, the IAEA found Iran in non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The previous day saw an escalation of tensions and a breakdown of dialogue around the nuclear programme.

Today, Israel struck Iran, with known sites being Tabriz, Tehran, Natanz, Kermanshah, Arak, Isfahan, Sanandaj, Ilam, Ahvaz (provincial capital of Khuzestan, Iran's oil-producing province), Chazabeh border crossing in Khuzestan. Israel has aimed for both Iran's nuclear program and its leadership.

Although this is a greatly escalatory step, our sense is that this will play out over [...]

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Outline:

(02:43) Likely developments

(08:02) Markets and Prediction Markets

(09:41) Live questions

(13:49) Worst-case scenarios

(16:15) International Reactions

(17:45) Possible actions

(18:32) What are some good signals that were right/are useful to look at

(19:26) License for this doc: MIT.

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