Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:51) Forecaster Estimates

(01:56) Geopolitics

(01:59) United States

(04:32) Europe

(06:00) Middle East

(08:16) Africa

(08:57) Asia

(10:26) Biorisk

(10:39) Tech and AI

(13:39) Climate

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Status: Greenish 🟢

Executive summary

Forecasters believe there's an 18% chance (range: 4%-50%) that there will be a famine in any part of Gaza by the end of 2025, according to the UN and its Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). A Category 5 rating would result in a positive resolution, with the last IPC update suggesting that all of Gaza was in Category 4.

As the US is becoming a less reliable geopolitical ally, countries from France to South Korea are making their own moves. The UK Government hosted military leaders in London to plan for a possible deployment of troops to Ukraine, with the French President saying that Russia's permission is not needed for this. On whether there will be a [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(02:25) Long tail of events

(02:35) Biorisks

(06:13) Geopolitics

(06:17) Middle East

(07:16) Europe

(09:33) Asia-Pacific

(10:00) The Americas

(12:23) Tech

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:52) Forecaster Estimates

(01:54) Geopolitics

(01:57) United States

(04:27) Europe

(05:52) Middle East

(08:01) Africa

(08:40) Asia

(10:10) Biorisk

(10:24) Tech and AI

(13:25) Climate

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:53) Forecaster Estimates

(02:01) Geopolitics

(02:04) United States

(04:47) Europe

(06:19) Middle East

(08:34) Africa

(09:17) Asia

(10:52) Biorisk

(11:08) Tech and AI

(14:26) Climate

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Market uncertainty and political turmoil over Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China

• Increasing US-China tensions

• Anthropic’s Claude Code displays reward-hacking tendencies.

Forecaster Estimates

Taiwan has been a hot topic in the last week as China ramps up their military exercises. On the question of whether China would attempt to invade Taiwan by 2030, forecasters estimated a 43% chance of this occurring (range: 20% to 70%).

There has been significant speculation online over whether OpenAI has lost its edge. Our estimates on which AI company currently has the most capable general-purpose AI model internally are:

• P(OpenAI is in the lead) = 40%

• P(Google DeepMind is in the lead) = [...]

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Outline:

(00:35) Forecaster Estimates

(01:34) Geopolitics

(01:37) United States

(05:54) Canada

(06:07) Europe

(09:00) Middle East

(10:02) Africa

(10:28) Asia

(13:13) Biorisk

(14:35) Artificial Intelligence

(19:39) Miscellanea

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket’s forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:50) Forecaster Estimates

(01:56) Geopolitics

(01:58) United States

(04:36) Europe

(06:07) Middle East

(08:19) Africa

(09:00) Asia

(10:32) Biorisk

(10:47) Tech and AI

(13:40) Climate

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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