Serious Trouble

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The verdict is in! Ken and Josh discuss the jury's relatively quick decision, the path to sentencing, whether Trump is likely to face a custodial sentence or community service or what, and (for paying subscribers) the arguments Trump will raise on appeal, which courts he can raise them in, and what prospects he has for getting his conviction overturned.

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It’s Wednesday, and the jury in Donald Trump’s Manhattan criminal trial has had his case for about half a day. On Wednesday morning, Judge Juan Merchan instructed the jury on the law — a long and boring process that Ken says jurors often basically ignore — and sent them out to deliberate. And now we wait.

Ken and Josh discuss closing arguments in which prosecutors dryly laid out the facts of the case they had presented, while Trump’s attorney Todd Blanche employed the “cockroach in the spaghetti” strategy, arguing the government’s case relied on claims and observations from Michael Cohen, whom a reasonable person would not trust. Indeed, Blanche deemed Cohen the G.L.O.A.T. — the “Greatest Liar of All Time” — a phrase that may overstate how great Cohen is at lying.

Plus: updates from the documents case in Florida, Rudy agrees to stop lying, Jenna Ellis gives up her law license and the Menendez case hits a speedbump.

We'll be back when there's a verdict... Sign up for updates at serioustrouble.show.

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Happy Birthday to America’s Mayor, now 80 years old! Rudy had a big bash to celebrate his 80th birthday last Friday, down in Palm Beach. He posted a photo from the party on social media, taunting Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes for her failure to serve a summons on him for his indictment for trying to steal that state’s presidential election. And then, around 11pm, agents from Mayes’s office approached him to serve his summons on person.

Plus: the cross-examination of Michael Cohen, Trump reportedly edits the statements of the given by his surrogates who say what he’s not allowed to under the gag order, Paul Pelosi's attacker is sentenced but there's a hitch, and Hunter Biden is in serious trouble.

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New York prosecutors have been using Michael Cohen not just as a vehicle to introduce documents, but to offer his own recollections and assessments of Donald Trump’s state of mind, including why he chose to pay for Stormy Daniels’ silence. Meanwhile, Trump has had friends visiting him at court — Republican politicians, some of them vice presidential hopefuls, who have made statements to the press that Trump himself is gagged from making. Indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar looks to be in even more serious trouble than he was last week, and Sen. Bob Menendez's trial has begun, with jury selection aided by a high-priced jury consultant. Steve Bannon has lost his appeal and will likely to have to serve out his (short) sentence for contempt of Congress before Trump has a chance to pardon him. And Rudy Giuliani is being sued again, this time in pursuit of a court order to bar him from lying — good luck with that.

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Josh thoughtfully attempted to wreck Ken right out of the gate by using the terms “missionary position” and “Donald Trump” in the same sentence of the cold open, live, in person, in Ken's office. He’s referring, of course, to Stormy Daniels’ frankly disturbing testimony about a sexual encounter with Trump, an encounter that sounded not particularly consensual. The rest of the proceedings were more substantive than salacious, with the prosecution steadily building a case through notes, Michael Cohen’s secretly recorded conversations with Trump, and witness observations. But can they convince the jury this was all in service of a different crime, as required for a felony?

Meanwhile, Judge Merchan found Trump in contempt over a whiny social media post about jurors but rejected the DA’s motion as to three other posts. In Florida and Georgia, the prosecutions of Trump are lagging. Who's surprised?

Plus: Nathan Wade thinks workplace romance is as American as apple pie, Rep. Henry Cuellar is in trouble, and the beef between Kendrick Lamar and Drake.

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Judge Juan Merchan has found Trump in contempt of court and fined him $9,000 — $1,000 per violation of the terms of his gag order, the maximum authorized by New York law. He also noted those fines might not be large enough to influence Trump's behavior, and he threatened to jail him if he violates the order again. Is that threat credible? Ken says so.

Plus: witness testimony in Merchan's courtroom, another New York judge declines to reduce E. Jean Carroll's award, the Supreme Court hears oral argument about presidential immunity, Arizona announces a fake electors indictment, and Harvey Weinstein's New York convictions have been overturned.

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The trial has begun! Judge Juan Merchan seated 12 jurors and 6 alternates in three days of voir dire. We discuss the pace of jury selection and complicating factors (that strong opinions about this defendant are common and often expressed on social media), plus: Ken discusses his philosophy of choosing a jury as a defense lawyer, why it’s more of an art than a science, and how it will matter that this Manhattan jury is unusually highly educated.

We also discuss a question that, as we sent out this episode, remains before Judge Merchan — should Trump be held in contempt for his repeated public statements about witnesses and the jury, in spite of the gag order on him? And we talk about the theories of the case laid out in opening statements from the prosecution and the defense.

And amid all this, George Santos has clawed his way back into the news in a small way. Yay! Visit serioustrouble.show to sign up for our newsletter and find a transcript of this episode.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.serioustrouble.show/subscribe

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Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York has begun, with jury selection underway. Ken and I discuss Trump’s last-ditch efforts to get this trial delayed, and public support he has gotten from a surprising advocate: imprisoned ex-attorney Michael Avenatti, who phoned into MSNBC from his oceanfront Los Angeles home to say he thinks the case is seriously flawed. Meanwhile, in Florida, Judge Aileen Cannon did something we said she might: She declined to make any decisions about those jury instructions she asked attorneys a bunch of weird questions about. Smith is in a bind. We discuss why.

Plus: Incompetent ratfucker Jacob Wohl and his sidekick Jack Burkman are in trouble again. And actress Gina Carano (from Disney's "The Mandalorian") is a character on Serious Trouble for the first time this week.

Sam Bankman-Fried has been sentenced. And at his sentencing, we saw a not-too-uncommon pattern for sentencings in major white-collar cases: Judge Lewis Kaplan read him the riot act, ruled against him on all the key issues driving the sentence guideline calculation; accused him of lying on the stand; and then sentenced him to far less than the guideline sentence.

Speaking of BS of interest to investors, Trump Media & Technology Group is worth billions of dollars, at least for now. Donald Trump has to wait six months for his share lockup to expire before he can start passing his shares off to new bagholders. So in the meantime, he’s suing his co-founders, saying they were bad at their jobs and therefore shouldn’t get to keep their shares. Is that how it works? Plus, Trump faces an expanded gag order in his Manhattan trial — one whose limits he appears intent to continue to push. And in Florida, after we recorded, Judge Aileen Cannon ruled (sort of) about issues related to the Presidential Records Act.

Plus: updates on Hunter Biden and John Eastman

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.serioustrouble.show/subscribe

A panel of New York appellate judges has reduced Donald Trump’s bond in the New York Attorney General’s civil case to $175 million, an amount he can probably afford. Ken and I discuss possible reasons the court took this surprise action — as is typical for this kind of decision in New York, the judges didn’t really explain their reasoning — and the likely course of Trump’s appeal to come later this year. Meanwhile, in New York Supreme Court (which is the trial court), Trump’s criminal trial over falsification of business records starts next month — we have pretrial updates, including on the gag order for the former president modeled on another recent gag order.

Plus: why are law clerks quitting Judge Aileen Cannon's chambers? And Rod Blogojevich is told to "just go."

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