LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Short Timelines don’t Devalue Long Horizon Research” by Vladimir_Nesov


Listen Later

Short AI takeoff timelines seem to leave no time for some lines of alignment research to become impactful. But any research rebalances the mix of currently legible research directions that could be handed off to AI-assisted alignment researchers or early autonomous AI researchers whenever they show up. So even hopelessly incomplete research agendas could still be used to prompt future capable AI to focus on them, while in the absence of such incomplete research agendas we'd need to rely on AI's judgment more completely. This doesn't crucially depend on giving significant probability to long AI takeoff timelines, or on expected value in such scenarios driving the priorities.

Potential for AI to take up the torch makes it reasonable to still prioritize things that have no hope at all of becoming practical for decades (with human effort). How well AIs can be directed to advance a line of research [...]

---

First published:

April 9th, 2025

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3NdpbA6M5AM2gHvTW/short-timelines-don-t-devalue-long-horizon-research

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

LessWrong (30+ Karma)By LessWrong


More shows like LessWrong (30+ Karma)

View all
Making Sense with Sam Harris by Sam Harris

Making Sense with Sam Harris

26,368 Listeners

Conversations with Tyler by Mercatus Center at George Mason University

Conversations with Tyler

2,397 Listeners

The Peter Attia Drive by Peter Attia, MD

The Peter Attia Drive

7,808 Listeners

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas by Sean Carroll | Wondery

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

4,108 Listeners

ManifoldOne by Steve Hsu

ManifoldOne

87 Listeners

Your Undivided Attention by Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin, The Center for Humane Technology

Your Undivided Attention

1,451 Listeners

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg by All-In Podcast, LLC

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

8,774 Listeners

Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST) by Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

89 Listeners

Dwarkesh Podcast by Dwarkesh Patel

Dwarkesh Podcast

354 Listeners

Hard Fork by The New York Times

Hard Fork

5,363 Listeners

The Ezra Klein Show by New York Times Opinion

The Ezra Klein Show

15,028 Listeners

Moonshots with Peter Diamandis by PHD Ventures

Moonshots with Peter Diamandis

461 Listeners

No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups by Conviction

No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups

127 Listeners

Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast by swyx + Alessio

Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast

65 Listeners

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley by BG2Pod

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

432 Listeners