LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“shortest goddamn bayes guide ever” by lukehmiles


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// ODDS = YEP:NOPE
YEP, NOPE = MAKE UP SOME INITIAL ODDS WHO CARES
FOR EACH E IN EVIDENCE
YEP *= CHANCE OF E IF YEP
NOPE *= CHANCE OF E IF NOPE

The thing to remember is that yeps and nopes never cross. The colon is a thick & rubbery barrier. Yep with yep and nope with nope.

bear : notbear =
1:100 odds to encounter a bear on a camping trip around here in general
* 20% a bear would scratch my tent : 50% a notbear would
* 10% a bear would flip my tent over : 1% a notbear would
* 95% a bear would look exactly like a fucking bear inside my tent : 1% a notbear would
* 0.01% chance a bear would eat me alive : 0.001% chance a notbear would

As you die you conclude 1*20*10*95*.01 : 100*50*1*1*.001 = 190 : 5 [...]






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First published:

May 10th, 2024

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w6vEJD3dtekaLgLME/shortest-goddamn-bayes-guide-ever

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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