Josh, Ben, Megan and special guest Nate Silver stress-test alternative ends to the government shutdown. What outcomes were actually available to Democrats? Then: Donald Trump’s poll numbers have materially deteriorated in the last month, and Democrats way outran their polls in elections last week. Are national polls understating Democrats’ national strength?

Also in this episode: Nate’s take on the strange debate over whether moderate candidates win more elections, and yet another pro-sports betting scandal. Is gambling undermining sports as a civic institution? And finally: Teen Vogue.

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