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For a long time, when I heard "slow takeoff", I assumed it meant "takeoff that takes longer calendar time than fast takeoff." (i.e. what is now referred to more often as "short timelines" vs "long timelines."). I think Paul Christiano popularized the term, and it so happened he both expected to see longer timelines and smoother/continuous takeoff.
I think it's at least somewhat confusing to use the term "slow" to mean "smooth/continuous", because that's not what "slow" particularly means most of the time.
I think it's even more actively confusing because "smooth/continuous" takeoff not only could be faster in calendar time, but, I'd weakly expect this on average, since smooth takeoff means that AI resources at a given time are feeding into more AI resources, whereas sharp/discontinuous takeoff would tend to mean "AI tech doesn't get seriously applied towards AI development until towards the end."
I don't think this [...]
The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.
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For a long time, when I heard "slow takeoff", I assumed it meant "takeoff that takes longer calendar time than fast takeoff." (i.e. what is now referred to more often as "short timelines" vs "long timelines."). I think Paul Christiano popularized the term, and it so happened he both expected to see longer timelines and smoother/continuous takeoff.
I think it's at least somewhat confusing to use the term "slow" to mean "smooth/continuous", because that's not what "slow" particularly means most of the time.
I think it's even more actively confusing because "smooth/continuous" takeoff not only could be faster in calendar time, but, I'd weakly expect this on average, since smooth takeoff means that AI resources at a given time are feeding into more AI resources, whereas sharp/discontinuous takeoff would tend to mean "AI tech doesn't get seriously applied towards AI development until towards the end."
I don't think this [...]
The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
Source:
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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