Sounds Strategic

Ahead of the European Council meeting on 20–21 June, Sarah and Kori discuss what’s to come in the next few weeks. The outcomes of the negotiations taking place will have implications for the functioning of the Franco-German dynamics that are so critical for the European Union, Sarah explains. Looking at the world from a European security perspective, Sarah examines strategic competition in the Western Balkans, European strategic autonomy and the EU–UK relationship in the years ahead. Sarah and Kori discuss Sarah’s upcoming Adelphi book Europe’s Strategic Future – From Crisis to Coherence, as well as the enduring importance of the United Kingdom for the security of Europe.

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In this episode of Sounds Strategic, Dr Kori Schake catches up with Aaron Connelly, IISS Research Fellow in Southeast Asian Political Change and Foreign Policy, at the 18th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.With expertise in the US role in East Asia and the politics and foreign policy of Indonesia, Myanmar and Malaysia, Aaron is best placed to discuss the current developments following the recent elections in Indonesia and Thailand. Kori and Aaron discuss the US–China relationship after major speeches from Patrick Shanahan and General Wei Fenghe at the Dialogue, touching on economic powers and maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Aaron debunks the common portrayal of Aung San Suu Kyi as a powerless leader in Myanmar, emphasising her power to control situations in the country, from the Rohingya crisis to freedom of the press.

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In this special edition of Sounds Strategic, Dr Kori Schake is joined by a variety of guests at the 18th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. Following major speeches by defence ministers from across the world, Kori and her guests discuss the key takeaways and provide thoughtful analysis from their areas of expertise. From Huawei to power politics, this episode covers the pressing strategic challenges facing the Asia-Pacific region today. Featured guests in order of appearance:Eric Sayers, Senior Adjunct Fellow for Defense, at the Center for a New American Security.Bonnie Glaser, Senior Advisor and Director of the China Power Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies.Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the Council, IISS; Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Hervé Lemahieu, Director, Asian Power and Diplomacy, Lowy Institute.Jamie Fly, Senior Fellow and Director, Future of Geopolitics, Asia Program, German Marshall Fund.Antoine Noguier, Head of Strategy, Airbus Defence and Space, Airbus.

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Dr Mahsa Rouhi, Research Fellow for the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic. Mahsa and Kori discuss Iran’s nuclear and foreign policy. Their dynamic discussion covers the current heightening of tensions with the US, revolutionary ideology, the strategic security decisions made since the revolution and the bottom-up approach taken to make these decisions.With a research focus on nuclear policy and security strategy in the Middle East, particularly Iran, Mahsa is perfectly placed to explore the country’s actions since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and what they mean for the region. To avoid misinterpreting Iran’s politics, Mahsa reinforces the importance of analysing both Iran’s nuclear and regional policies against the wider background of its strategic objectives.

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Dr Francesca Grandi, IISS Senior Fellow for Conflict, Security and Development and Editor of the Armed Conflict Survey 2019, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.In this episode, Francesca and Kori discuss the great power dynamics currently unfolding in the Central African Republic with Russia’s growing presence and influence in the Middle East and Africa. Francesca explains Russia’s role in the conflict in CAR and the obstacles to the country’s stabilisation despite the signing of a peace agreement.Francesca expands on how aid is used as a weapon of war in today’s conflicts – a key topic featured in the 2019 edition of the Armed Conflict Survey. With a research focus in conflict analysis and post-conflict justice, she evaluates the norms and tools for the protection of civilians and debunks the concept of ethnic wars, which oversimplifies the multicausal dynamism of armed conflict.

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Névine Schepers, IISS Research Associate for Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic. Névine and Kori discuss recent developments relating to the civil nuclear export market, highlighting how innovations in legal structures and instruments to safeguard against nuclear proliferation have advanced the cause of non-proliferation. Their lively discussion ranges from analysis of Saudi Arabia’s civil nuclear energy programme, Egypt’s nuclear deal with Russia, concerns about US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran nuclear deal, and nuclear energy trends in Russia. With a research focus on Iran and the geopolitics of nuclear energy, Névine examines concerns about Iran, the JCPOA and proliferation in the region. She asserts that the Trump administration’s current position on the Iran nuclear agreement is counter-productive. Névine and Kori also discuss whether Russia’s civil nuclear exports have clear geopolitical implications, and whether Russian exports might lead to weaker nuclear governance compliance. Favourite data visualisation: Time Zone Map: https://www.timeanddate.com/time/map/ Reading recommendations: Névine Schepers, ‘Russia’s Nuclear Energy Exports: Status, Prospects and Implications’, EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Papers, no. 69, pp. 1–15 (2019)Tom Zoellner, Uranium (London: Penguin Books, 2010) Date of recording: 24 April 2019 Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London. Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks.

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Henry Boyd, IISS Research Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic. In this episode, Kori and Henry explore the military dimensions of the new great power competition emerging between a declining United States, a resurgent Russia and a rising China and their implications for international security and defence. They also discuss the impact Russian intervention in Syria has had on contemporary concepts of the legitimate use of force and the ethics of modern warfare. Henry goes on to explain why assessing the military capabilities of countries such as the United States and China requires more than a simple measure of their military hardware. Instead, additional factors must be considered, such as organisation, doctrine and training. Henry also talks about how he first became interested in the subject of defence and security, the virtues of wargaming, and the role human rationale and psychology plays in how we understand modern international affairs, war and policy. Favourite data visualisationRichard J. Heuer Jr, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, ‘Chapter 12 - Biases in Estimating Probabilities, Figure 18’, CIA Measuring perceptions of Uncertainty | Visual Capitalisthttps://www.visualcapitalist.com/measuring-perceptions-of-uncertainty/ Reading recommendations:Professor Philip Sabin, Simulating War: Studying Conflict through Simulation Games, (London: Bloomsburg, 2014) Further work by the IISS Defence and Military Analysis ProgrammeBastian Giegerich, Christian Moelling et al, ‘Could the EU deliver on its military ambitions after Brexit?’, Military Balance blog, (London: IISS, 2018) IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme, ‘The Military Balance 2019 wall chart’, The Military Balance 2019, (Abingdon: Routledge, 2019)Date of recording: 8 April 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks.

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Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.Emile and Kori give a masterclass in understanding the Middle East and political violence. Emile explains the misconceptions surrounding the state of Iraq before the 2003 invasion, what non-proliferation experts miss about Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons, and the problematic notion that Iran and Saudi Arabia can and should share the Middle East, thus making it possible for the US to adopt an ‘offshore balancing’ posture, and much more.Emile responds to the US recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and reflects on his recent analysis of the continuation of the Arab Spring, stating that ‘the ebb and flow of street protests will be the new normal.’Emile is perfectly placed to explore the question of conflict in the Middle East, having grown up in Lebanon during some of the most intense years of the civil war, studied in the US during the invasion of Iraq, and used his expertise to conduct field research across the region. With a brief that is constantly in the news, his work and comments are referenced regularly in leading outlets.Favourite data visualisationThe impacts of climate change at 1.5C, 2C and beyond | Carbon Briefhttps://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/Map of Syria: situation as of January 2019, featured in ‘The US withdrawal from Syria’ (IISS Strategic Comment, vol. 25, no. 1, January 2019: https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2019/the-us-withdrawal-from-syria)Reading recommendations:Stathis Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil Wars (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006) Further writings on Syria and the regional context by Emile:How Syria defeated the Sunni powers (New York Times, 30 December 2016)‘Assad or we burn the country’: misreading sectarianism and the regime in Syria (War on the Rocks, 24 August 2016)Obama’s disastrous betrayal of the Syrian rebels (Foreign Policy, 4 February 2016)Iran, the Gulf States and the Syrian Civil War (Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, November 2014) Date of recording: 25 March 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks.

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Meia Nouwens, IISS Research Fellow for Chinese Defence Policy and Military Modernisation, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.Meia and Kori discuss the economic and intellectual property antagonisms of China’s military development, and the wider economic strategy implications of its goal to become a military world leader by 2030. China seems to have ‘activated the antibodies against [its] continued success’, suggests Kori, referring to the renationalisation of high-tech industries.Meia debunks the myth that China is inflexible because it is an authoritarian government and that, therefore, domestic public opinion doesn’t matter.She asserts that the Chinese public mood is a far greater threat to the Chinese Communist Party than the United States could ever be. Meia and Kori discuss how such assumptions can lead to poor policy decisions by foreign governments.Favourite data visualisation:Xi Jinping’s Thought https://i.stack.imgur.com/tO3Rg.jpgReading recommendations:Philip Ball, The Water Kingdom: A Secret History of China (London: Penguin Random House, 2016)Date of recording: 19 February 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks.

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Viraj Solanki, IISS Research Analyst for South Asia, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.Viraj and Kori discuss the distinct breadth and depth of research produced by the IISS South Asia Programme. Viraj explains how recent events in the Maldives and Seychelles reflect a geopolitical renaissance for small island nations in South Asia.Set within the context of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Viraj highlights the new importance of small power relations and the scale of renewed engagement by China, India and the West. Kori and Viraj also discuss the future of the BRI and prospects for peace in Afghanistan in this wide-ranging discussion on the region.Favourite data visualisation:Financial Times, How China rules the waves, January 2017Reading recommendations:Christina Lamb, Farewell Kabul: From Afghanistan to a More Dangerous World (London: William Collins Publishers, 2015)Steve Coll, Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden (London: Penguin Books, 2005)Date of recording: 25 January 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks.

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