Squawk Box Europe Express

Iran denies it is in negotiations with Washington as President Trump announces he has postponed airstrikes on critical power plants and energy facilities in the country for five days and claims a peace deal could be close. Oil prices rebound following an initial drop in the price of Brent to below $100 for the first time in almost a fortnight on the back of Trump’s comments. US and European futures point south, giving back some of Monday’s gains. Apollo Global caps withdrawals from a $25bn private credit fund after investors sought more than 11 per cent of the total following its first monthly loss in more than three years.

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U.S. and Iran trade threats with President Trump warning he will target power stations should the Strait of Hormuz not be reopened. The Iranian leadership has hit back saying it will target energy and water supply facilities in the Gulf. South Korea’s KOSPI leads losses in Asia while European futures are in the read. Crude prices continue to rise with WTI surpassing the $100-mark once again. And precious metals are also on the decline with last week’s gold price slide the largest in more than 30 years.

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Israel continues to increase air strike on Iran overnight. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the country’s uranium enrichment capabilities have been destroyed but signals the possibility of a ground invasion. Central banks across Europe defer any possibility of rate cuts with the ECB and BoE warning that the Middle East conflict has blurred the inflation outlook and will push up energy prices. European Council leaders plead for warring parties in the Gulf to cease attacks on key energy facilities as Hungary vetoes a €90bn loan to Ukraine over halted oil shipments. 

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Iran strikes Qatar’s main LNG facility – one of the world’s biggest – following an Israeli attack on the giant South Pars gas field. President Trump has warned of stern intervention should retaliatory strikes continue. Equities in Europe are back in the red following a two-day winning streak. The Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signalling a single cut to come this year. Chairman Jerome Powell says it is too early to tell what impact the war in Iran could have on inflation.

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We hear exclusively from French finance minister Roland Lescure who says his country would be willing to aid the U.S. in securing the Strait of Hormuz but would require the conflict to de-escalate first. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has warned the nation faces the possibility of higher inflation and borrowing costs due to the Iran war but tells CNBC it is on a far stronger footing today to absorb the shocks due to her fiscal reforms. Tehran fires a barrage of missile attacks at Tel Aviv following the killing of Iran’s senior-most security chief Ali Larijani. In the U.S., top counter-terrorism director Joe Kent resigns over the decision to go to war.   

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President Trump looks to postpone his China trip, saying his focus remains on the conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. leader also hits out at European allies after several reject his demand to help escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. And in markets, futures point to a day in the red on Wall Street, with Trump again calling on the Fed to cut rates ahead of its meeting starting today, after the Reserve Bank of Australia fires the starting gun on a week of central bank action by tightening policy.

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President Trump calls on allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz with exports through the vital oil chokepoint remaining effectively halted, while European foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas criticizes the U.S. government’s decision to lift some energy sanctions on Russia. Oil prices tick higher as the disruption continues, with traders looking to navigate price volatility. Investors look ahead to a massive week of central bank action, as lenders across the globe grapple with fallout from the conflict in the Middle East. Unicredit launches a bid to raise its stake in Commerzbank above the 30% level but says it doesn’t want to take control of the German lender.

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Oil settles about $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 after Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledges to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent say the U.S. Navy will be helping to escort tankers out of the Gulf once military conditions are met. The U.S. government has sought to further ease prices by lifting sanctions on Russian oil already in transit. Russia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrey Kelin, tells CNBC that Russia stands by Iran and that the U.S. and its allies are solely to blame for the Gulf crisis. Rate cut expectations are dampened as concerns over a prolonged conflict send the dollar and yields higher while equities fall into the red.

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Oil prices have pulled back from $100 a barrel following several attacks on merchant vessels in the Gulf. Two tankers have been reportedly attacked overnight in Iraqi waters. The IEA announces its largest strategic reserve release of 400m barrels but energy markets remain wary. President Trump and the IEA’s Fatih Birol vow to keep oil flowing. The White House launches a probe into several key trading partners including the EU and China which, under section 301, permit tariffs to counter unfair commerce practices. And in autos news, BMW enjoys a Q4 earnings beat despite tariffs affecting its FY guidance.  

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Oil prices swing after the White House says the U.S. Navy did not escort a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The denial corrected a now-deleted social media post by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. The IEA reportedly proposes the largest-ever release of oil reserves as the Iran conflict continues to restrict the movement of global supplies. In autos news, Porsche narrowly misses FY sales expectations and says it will now streamline itself, pivoting away from EVs and overhauling its product line-up. Meanwhile, Renault Group CEO, François Provost, tells CNBC he still believes electric cars are the future.

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