Squawk Box Europe Express

Iran accuses the U.S. of violating the new ceasefire agreed on Tuesday with Israel continuing to target Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. U.S. Vice-President JD Vance is to lead peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan this weekend, saying early ceasefire ‘choppiness’ is expected. Oil prices rebound from yesterday’s relief rally optimism with Asian markets in the red. European futures are slightly negative. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is hosted by President Trump at the White House who voices his frustration with the alliance’s lack of support over action in Iran. Rutte said talks were ‘frank’ but remained friendly.  

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President Trump announces that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire on the condition Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. WTI and Brent sink back under the $100-mark as a result and the Kospi and Nikkei leading gains in Asian markets. The rally is due to extend in Europe and the U.S. with the Stoxx 50 and Nasdaq futures set for gains of 5 per cent and 3 per cent respectively. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu supports the pause in hostilities in Iran but says the deal does not cover operations in Lebanon. We hear exclusively from Lebanese Economy Minister Amer Bisat who presses for a ‘sovereign-led ceasefire’ for his country.

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U.S. President Donald Trump has cranked up the pressure on the Iranian regime to strike a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to target civilian and energy infrastructure should tonight’s deadline not be met. Oil futures rise on the comments but European equities remain sanguine following the extended Easter trading break. We hear exclusively from Danone CEO Antoine de Saint-Affrique who says the food giant is entering a new phase of acquisitions following a wave of recent acquisitions including UK powdered food firm Huel. De Saint-Affrique told CNBC the company is looking to reinforce its brands in the face of potential war-related volatility. And the Artemis II crew flies deeper into space than any manned craft before, surveying the far side of the moon.

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President Trump addresses the nation and says the war in Iran is nearing its end but offers no hint of de-escalation, adding that the U.S. will continue to strike the country. Markets surge on the news with WTI and Brent nudging past $100 per barrel. Asian equities start today off in the red with European futures looking to follow suit. Trump also advises European allies to ‘build up delayed courage’ to procure Gulf oil for themselves, insisting that the U.S. is wholly reliant on its own supply.  

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Hopes of a de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict help push all three Wall Street majors into the green with the Nikkei and Kospi leading Asian stocks gains. U.S. President Trump has indicated he is ready to finish the conflict in Iran with ‘two or three weeks’ even without a deal on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump slammed NATO allies for refusing to provide aid in the conflict. He criticised France for blocking airspace access to U.S. war planes and the UK was challenged to source some of its own oil from the Persian Gulf.

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Brent is on course for its biggest monthly gain ever but has dipped overnight after a WSJ report that President Trump could be willing to halt the conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force. Iran strikes a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker. The White House says that Trump is still willing to strike a deal with the Iranian regime despite claims he could target energy infrastructure in the country. The Nasdaq is in correction territory following a turbulent session while the Stoxx 600 has suffered its worst monthly performance since March 2020. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offers investors hope saying the central bank’s rates policy is comfortable.

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Oil prices continue to surge as the Iran conflict enters its fifth week. Brent is set for its largest monthly gain ever with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed. Asian markets are selling off while European futures also point south. President Trump tells the FT he is eyeing Iran’s oil reserves and has signalled he is willing to take over the vital export terminal of Kharg Island. However, he has also commented that a deal with Iran’s leadership remains possible. Australia joins other nations to announce it will be cutting its fuel tax for three months to provide consumer relief.

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President Trump extends his deadline for attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6th, as talks reportedly continue. The US leader insists Tehran is desperate to end the war, even as it rejects the first US proposal. Oil prices ease and Asian stocks come well off session lows, as investors digest Trump's deadline extension and Iran's move to allow some tankers through the Strait. Futures in Europe and on Wall Street point higher, following Thursday's sell-off. Waiting on Rubio - the US Secretary of State is set to join his G7 peers in France for a second day of talks - as EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says Russia's involvement in Iran reflects how the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are connected. Anthropic reportedly eyes an IPO as soon as October, as the AI player wins a preliminary injunction in its legal fight with the Department of Defence.

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Iran says it is reviewing a U.S. ceasefire proposal but firmly denies President Trump's claims that talks are underway with Tehran desperate to strike a deal. Stocks fall and oil rises as investors reassess the odds of a ceasefire with former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein telling CNBC investors should tread carefully. G7 foreign ministers arrive for a key summit in France, as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine dominate the agenda. NATO's Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation tells CNBC the military alliance is confronting new forms of warfare and urges Europe to take on a greater leadership role.

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The U.S. government has reportedly provided Iran with a peace proposal even though Tehran continuously denies direct talks are happening. President Trump voices optimism that a deal can be struck. Oil prices fall as a result with Brent settling near the $100-mark while European and U.S. futures move to the green on hopes of de-escalation in the Gulf. Shell CEO Wael Sawan has warned that Europe could face potential fuel shortages by next month should the conflict continue while TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné told CNBC at CERAWeek in Houston that refining margins are soaring to unprecedented levels.

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