Squawk Box Europe Express

U.S. President Donald Trump hails the war effort in Iran as ‘very complete’ and has suggested some oil sanctions could be eased to shore up confidence in the market. However, Trump warned Iran could be struck even harder should it attempt to further disrupt supply. G7 energy ministers are set to discuss a potential release of strategic oil reserves. The U.S. is reportedly planning for up to 3-4 million barrels to be made jointly available. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned of ‘catastrophic consequences’ should the conflict continue to disrupt supply. And in autos news, Volkswagen falls short of FY sales expectations but predicts margin improvements in 2026.

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Oil prices surge to almost $120bbl overnight before falling back to $108bbl. President Trump says he does not believe the market shock will be prolonged. The G7 reportedly considers a joint release of oil from strategic reserves while reports suggest that Saudi Aramco may offer oil on the spot market. The Nikkei and Kospi lead Asian equity losses while Europe and Wall Street look set for continued sell-off pressure. Iran has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, Ali, as the country’s Supreme Leader to defy President Trump selection wishes.  

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After six days of conflict in the Middle East, President Trump says the Iranian regime is desperate to end the fighting but the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, refutes the claims. Washington provides India with a 30-day waiver to buy Russia oil in a bid to settle global supply concerns and stabilise rising energy prices with U.S. crude trading at just over $80bbl. We hear from Bundesbank President and ECB governing council member Joachim Nagel who says the impact of the war in Iran is showing early signs of economic strain in Europe.

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Global equities stage an impressive comeback as traders absorb fears about the conflict in Middle East. Tech and chip stocks lead the way in Asia with South Korea’s Kospi rebounding to potentially posting its best session in 18 years. Crude also claws back losses despite concerns of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has vowed to protect tankers passing through the Persian Gulf. In Europe, futures are cautious with the Stoxx 50 set to open more than 1 per cent lower. At the NPC in Beijing, the CCP sets its lowest growth outlook in more than three decades, citing ‘severe strain’ on free trade and the global economic forecast.  

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Equity markets in Asia nose-dive with South Korea’s Kospi posts its worst session in history. Conflict in the Middle East intensifies fears of inflation causing investors to dump tech and semiconductor stocks. The U.S. and Israel continue to strike Iran with notable damage to IRGC headquarters and the Islamic Revolutionary Court in Tehran. President Trump has raised questions over who would succeed the Islamic regime. Trump has also offered to provide risk insurance for vessels using the Persian Gulf and said the U.S. Navy would help escort them out of the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to ease climbing global oil and gas prices.  

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The U.S. strikes at more than 1,000 Iranian sites including IRGC facilities while Tehran retaliates by hitting the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. President Trump says he is prepared to extend the conflict if necessary. Oil and gas shipping prices surge as Iran claims it has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and vows to hit any vessels attempting to pass through. Qatar, meanwhile, has said it is suspending LNG production. Asian markets suffer a day in the red with the Kospi falling by more than 7 per cent. U.S. and European futures indicate continued selling later today.

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U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran intensify as Tehran retaliates hitting targets across the region including American and British bases. President Trump says the attacks could last for several weeks. Crude prices surge as supply through the Strait of Hormuz come under threat. Futures on both sides of the Atlantic point to a sell-off as investors digest events in the Middle East. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is expected to lead declines on Wall Street.

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The Green Party wins the Gorton and Denton by-election in Greater Manchester with Labour coming a distant third. The result will pile more pressure and scrutiny on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer ahead of crucial UK local elections in May. Netflix abandons its acquisition deal for Warner Brothers Discovery after it refused to match Paramount’s offer of $31 per share for the group’s entire media portfolio. Netflix shares have moved higher as a result. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been branded a ‘liar’ with a ‘God complex’ by a senior Pentagon official, increasing tensions between the U.S. government and the A.I. giant regarding the use of its model’s guardrails. And in the banking sector, Barclays and Banco Santander see shares dive following reports the lenders have millions in exposure to a collapsed private UK mortgage provider facing fraud allegations.

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Amid continuing A.I.-related jitters, Nvidia posts another set of stellar quarterly results but Salesforce disappoints with revenue forecasts coming in below analysts’ expectations. However, both companies’ CEOs tell our CNBC colleagues Stateside that market concerns are overblown. Nvidia’s results play their part in a rebound on Wall Street and help tech shares in Asia with the Nikkei closing at a record high. Insurance giant and asset manager Allianz predicts FY operating profit could be as high as €18.4bn – up from almost €17.5bn in 2025.

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President Trump delivers the longest SOTU speech in history to defend his second-term record. Trump highlighted progress made on the economy and hailed the ‘golden age’ of America. Several new tech partnership announcements including from Anthropic boost U.S. software stocks in yesterday’s session and help push Asian equities into the green. UK banking giant HSBC posts a FY profit beat ahead of expectations despite being down on the prior year due to a series of one-off charges. CEO George Elhedery tells our colleagues in Hong Kong the recent shake-up at the lender s beginning to bear fruit.  

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