Squawk Box Europe Express

Swiss equity markets react for the first time since President Trump imposed a 39 per cent levy on the country last week. European markets look to bounce back following Friday’s sell-off which was their steepest one-day decline since April with more quarterly earnings due later this week. And in the U.S., markets anticipate a Fed rate revision at every meeting left this year following last week’s disappointing employment print. The White House has defended President Trump’s decision to fire Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.  

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President Trump launches his latest round of tariffs, hitting Canada and Switzerland with higher levies due to start in a week’s time. The dollar jumps on the move – its first monthly gain since Trump assumed office – while the euro and sterling slump to their respective worst months in 3 years. Daimler Trucks revises FY profits forecasts by what could be more than 20 per cent citing poor performance in the U.S. market.   

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Meta ups its guidance on the back of a Q2 profits beat while Microsoft outperforms, growing revenue at its fastest pace in three years. In aviation news, Airbus confirms its delivery targets for the year despite engine supply delays from Pratt & Whitney. CEO Guillaume Faury tells our U.S. colleagues he is pleased about the trading environment following the U.S.-EU/UK deals. Asia-focused bank Standard Chartered announces a $1.3bn buyback following a 26 per cent H1 profit surge. The lender’s CFO, Diego De Giorgi, says non-rate affected units are ‘booming’.

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Swiss lender UBS posts a Q2 net profit beat but CEO Sergio Ermotti tells CNBC that tariff ‘fatigue’ is beginning to affect client sentiment. Chinese and U.S. negotiators have failed to confirm a trade truce following 2 days of discussions in Stockholm. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to our colleagues Stateside and says that any extended pause will be ultimately decided up on by President Trump. Disappointing revenues of up to a quarter at Gucci drag parent company Kering down in Q2. The French luxury giant warns of a second price adjustment following the U.S- EU trade deal. And Japan, the Pacific coast of the U.S. as well as Guam and Hawaii brace for a tsunami following a massive 8.8 Richter Scale earthquake off the coast of Russia’s far East.

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European leaders vent their frustration at the trade deal secured by U.S. President Donald Trump with the EU as details of the agreement begin to sink in around the bloc. Trump has said he will set tariffs in the 15-20 per cent range ahead of the Friday, 1st August global deadline. Philips hikes its guidance after concluding that Trump’s tariffs will affect profits less than previously expected.

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U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen announce a deal to avert a full-blown trade war but the EU will still be hit with tariffs of 15 per cent. European futures move higher on the news as investor sentiment stabilises ahead of the tariff deadline this Friday. Heineken posts an H1 beat and backs its FY forecast.

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President Trump tours renovations at the Federal Reserve and says costs have spiralled to $3.2bn at the site but Chairman Jerome Powell pushes back against the claims. LVMH suffers a larger-than-expected fall in Q2 sales as CEO Bernard Arnault announces plans to open a new factory in Texas. VW Group cuts its FY guidance following an almost-30 per cent plunge in operating profit in the second quarter.  

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Tesla shares slump after CEO Elon Musk warns of potential ‘rough quarters’ ahead as EV subsidies expire and European sales nosedive by 40 per cent in June. Deutsche Bank sees profits double in H1 to €5.3bn on strong inflows to its private bank and asset banking arm. CFO James Von Moltke tells CNBC he believes the German economy is gaining in confidence. European futures are up as the EU and U.S. move closer to negotiating a 15 per cent tariff package, similar to that agreed between Washington and Japan earlier this week.

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The U.S. and Japan agree to what President Trump calls ‘the largest trade deal in history’. Tariffs on most goods including autos have been reduced to 15 per cent, sending shares spiking among car manufacturers. Italian lender Unicredit hikes its guidance following an unexpected profit jump in Q2 just a day after it abandoned its bid for smaller domestic rival Banco BPM. CEO Andrea Orcel tells CNBC the takeover move had become ‘a drag’. SAP posts a 24 per cent cloud revenue beat but still misses expectations. CFO Dominik Asam says he remains confident thanks to a strong pipeline in H2.

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The White House maintains pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates but markets appear sanguine. The S&P 500 closes at a fresh record high while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells our colleagues Stateside that he intends to investigate the Fed’s decision-making. Brussels is reportedly preparing a range of ‘nuclear options’ should the EU fail to agree a trade deal with Washington ahead of President Trump’s August 1st deadline. Anglo-Swedish drug firm AstraZeneca says it will invest around $50bn for manufacturing and R&D in the US over the next five years as it braces for potential pharma tariffs.

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