Squawk Box Europe Express

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition loses its majority in the upper house with rival parties advocating tax cuts and increased spending. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he believes an EU trade deal is feasible. However, reports suggest some EU leaders are considering harsher retaliatory moves should President Trump raise the baseline tariff rate. And in aviation news, Ryanair’s net profits almost double in the second quarter as Easter travel boosts Europe’s largest budget carrier. 

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Netflix posts a Q2 beat on the back of strong subscriber growth and advertising sales and has hiked its revenue forecast. Shares move slightly down in after-hours trade, however, as investors brace for rising costs in H2. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller is urging a rate cut this month, citing growing weakness in the U.S. labor market. And in Japan, the ruling coalition could lose its upper house majority in this weekend’s election as an upstart right-wing party threatens to add pressure to the country’s finances.  

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President Trump denies he plans to fire U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following reports he had written a draft dismissal letter and discussed the move with lawmakers. Trump did again, however, criticise Powell for his failure to lower interest rates. The world’s largest contract chip maker, TSMC, posts a massive 60 per cent surge in profits in the second quarter. Drug giant Novartis hikes its full-year guidance on the back of a narrow Q2 core earnings beat and double-digit sales numbers. European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen outlines her next budget plans but faces stiff criticism from Brussels and member states for the content and handling of the €2.3tn package.

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UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves gives her Mansion House speech and calls on regulators to strip back red tape in order to boost growth. In the U.S., the June inflation print comes in slightly higher as tariffs begin to affect the core CPI number with President Trump continuing to slam the Federal Reserve’s measures. In France, Prime Minister Francois Bayrou infuriates Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party after proposing a €44bn tax rise package as well as slashing two public holidays from the calendar to encourage economic activity. In autos news, disappointing European demand and Chinese competition prompts Renault to cut its full-year guidance. The company has also installed finance chief Duncan Minto as interim CEO.

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Nvidia expects the green light from the U.S. government to resume selling a key AI chip in China with deliveries to begin soon. Domestic consumption drives Q2 growth in China but the threat of a trade war with the U.S. still looms. And U.S. President Trump u-turns on arms deliveries to Ukraine, including sending Patriot missiles and threatening Russia with secondary tariffs in the event of no ceasefire within 50 days.

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President Trump threatens the European Union with a 30 per cent tariff on exports into the U.S. starting on 1st August. However, Trump says a deal could be reached if the EU was willing to make concessions. The EU is holding off from any retaliatory measures for now but European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen says the bloc is preparing to target up to €90bn of U.S. products should negotiations fail. European futures dip but should avoid a severe sell-off as investors pin hopes on a settlement to be reached between Washington and Brussels.

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All eyes are on Washington as President Trump says he will send a tariff letter to the European Union by the weekend - after slapping Canada with a 35% levy. Meanwhile, JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon has a simple message for Europe: you're losing the battle to rival the US and China. Across the Atlantic, European leaders are set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this month, sources confirm to CNBC - averting potential embarrassment ahead of a likely contentious summit.

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President Trump hits Brazil with a 50% tariff - despite the U.S. having a trade surplus in goods with the country - citing the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The world's biggest company gets even bigger: Nvidia becomes the first company in history to breach $4 trillion in market cap as investors pile back in on AI bets. Meanwhile, Kellogg shares spike in extended trade amid reports Nutella-maker Ferrero is nearing an acquisition deal, in what would be a rare European takeover of a U.S. rival.

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President Trump threatens substantial levies on copper and the pharma sector, as the EU scrambles to agree on a tariff deal. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says that both sides are making progress. Meta bets on EssilorLuxottica - reportedly taking a $3.5 billion minority stake in the Ray-Ban maker as the U.S. tech giant makes a push in the 'smart glasses' space. Elon Musk lashes out at one of the most bullish Tesla analysts on Wall Street, telling Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives to "Shut up," after he called for Musk to cut back on politics.

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President Trump hits trading partners with higher tariffs from August, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. is weighing several new deals. The European Union is reportedly set to dodge any tariff escalation, with Ireland's Trade Minister saying he expects an extension of the status quo, allowing time for further talks. Meanwhile, officials from Japan and South Korea hold calls with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, saying they'll hold further talks before the new tariffs come into effect next month.

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