Squawk Box Europe Express

President Trump says countries will receive tariff letters from 5pm London time, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirms the measures come into effect from August 1st. Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe tells CNBC he's optimistic the EU can strike a trade deal with the U.S. - as the bloc eyes a skeleton agreement that keeps a 10% levy on most exports. And - Elon Musk announces plans to launch a new political party, drawing the ire of President Trump and raising questions about his business commitments.

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The U.S. aims to finalise a flurry of deals ahead of its tariff deadline, while EU talks extend into the weekend. But European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expects only a framework agreement in the short term. After several all-nighters, Republicans finally force through President Trump's sweeping budget bill, in time for the U.S. leader to sign it into law today, the 4th of July. And - one year of Keir Starmer. The British Prime Minister and the Labour Party mark 12 months in power to cap off a week marked by a tearful Chancellor Rachel Reeves on the frontbench, while the PM scrambles to reassure a jittery bond market.

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Speculation swirls around U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves after an emotional appearance in parliament, sparking selling across U.K. assets, with long-dated gilt yields seeing their biggest spike since April. Meanwhile, the U.S. sets a 20% tariff on exports from Vietnam under a new trade deal, just days before President Trump's deadline to ramp up his so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' once again. And - President Trump's Budget Bill stalls in the House, as Speaker Johnson struggles to win over opponents in his own party.

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The Senate narrowly passes Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill, with attention now turning back to the House as it races to pass the package. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears to push back at pressure from President Trump, telling the Sintra forum the Fed would have cut rates further by this stage if it had not been for tariffs. Shares in AstraZeneca pop in Tuesday's session after the Times reports CEO Pascal Soriot is looking at moving the pharma giant's listing from London to the U.S. And - Santander swoops in for Sabadell's U.K. unit TSB in a deal worth £2.65 billion.

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ECB President Christine Lagarde kicks off this year's ECB Forum with a warning against complacency, but Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch tells CNBC the central bank will only stick or cut at this point. Senate voting on the Trump-backed budget bill continues into a second day, as Republican leaders look to secure the support needed to send the package back to the House. Meanwhile, the dollar sees its worst start to a year since 1973, as President Trump's trade policies and attacks on the Fed raise questions around the greenback's safe-haven status.

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U.S. senators end their debate on President Trump's budget bill, with a vote on the package due later today. Meanwhile, European Council President Antonio Costa tells CNBC the U.S. defence spending dispute is resolved, with Europe boosting arms purchases under the new NATO deal. Canada scraps its digital services tax targeting U.S. big tech just days after President Trump calls off trade talks.

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The White House announces a potential extension to the reciprocal tariffs deadline. This could include the 50 per cent levy on the European Union. The EC president, Ursula Von Der Leyen confirms she has received Washington’s proposal of new trade discussions but struck a cautious tone ahead of any resumption in dialogue. The U.S. dollar sinks to a three-and-a-half-year low against the euro and sterling with markets now mulling the potential appointment of a more doveish Federal Reserve chairman by the U.S. president.

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NATO leaders agree to ramp up defence spending to 5% of GDP, with Europe breathing a sigh of relief as U.S. President Donald Trump renews his commitment to the military alliance. Over in Brussels, attention now turns to the European Council summit - with the bloc's leaders set to discuss how to align defence efforts around ongoing support for Ukraine and a volatile situation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Shell denies renewed reports it is in early stage talks to buy rival BP - a deal that could create an energy giant worth some £200 billion. 

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Donald Trump heads to the NATO summit in the Hague, with Secretary-General Mark Rutte hailing the U.S. President's 'big success' as leaders back deeper defence spending. Meanwhile, President Trump insists Iran's nuclear sites were 'completely destroyed' by US strikes, despite NBC sources suggesting the operation only set the country's nuclear programme back by as little as three months. Wall Street rallies on signs the ceasefire is holding, while crude prices look to claw back some of this week's losses. 

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President Trump announced on Truth Social that an Iran-Israel ceasefire is in effect, calling on both nations to stand down weapons and stick to the agreement. Meanwhile, the leaders of France and Germany say NATO's new spending target will strengthen its European pillar ahead of a crucial summit in the Hague, with Secretary General Mark Rutte pledging action. In Germany, industry leaders weighed in on the impact of conflict in the Middle East, with Deutsche Bank CEO Chirstian Sewing telling CNBC the corporate world is now better prepared to weather the storm.

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