Squawk Box Europe Express

The U.S strikes three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend and President Trump has hinted at potential regime change in the country. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi has warned of a hard-hitting response while European leaders have urged a return to the negotiating table. Oil moves higher but markets are sanguine despite the Iranian parliament’s vote to close off the Strait of Hormuz

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The White House has announced that a decision whether to strike Iran will be made with two weeks as talks continue. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is due to meet European counterparts in Geneva later today in a bid to make a last-minute deal to avert further conflict. Spain has pushed back against NATO demands to increase its defence bill to 5 per cent of GDP. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called the aim ‘counter-productive’. And in M&A news, Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel has said his bank is likely to withdraw its offer for rival lender Banco BPM despite receiving the EU’s approval of the move. Orcel said he believed Unicredit would flourish with or without the takeover.  

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Israel has confirmed it has struck nuclear sites in Iran overnight but U.S. President Trump says he has not yet made a final decision on whether to join the campaign and will announce his move at short notice. The U.S. Federal Reserve keeps rates steady but policy makers suggest two cuts by the end of the year. Chairman Jerome Powell has warned that tariffs will lead to price increases. The BoE, the SNB and the Norges Bank are due to make rate decisions later today. And we are live at the London Stock Exchange where the AIM exchange celebrates its 30th anniversary with almost £136bn raised so far.  

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President Trump has called for Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender’ in its conflict with Israel. NBC News reports that Trump is mulling a direct military strike on the country. We are live at the Paris Air Show where the CEOs of Saab and Leonardo tell CNBC that Europe’s defence depends on broader budgets and less fragmentation between nations. UK May inflation figures come in at 3.4 per cent year-on-year ahead of tomorrow’s BoE rate decision.

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President Trump leaves the G7 summit in Alberta, Canada early, reportedly flying back to Washington to attend the Situation Room. He issued a warning to Tehran’s residents to evacuate from the city and suggested his return pertained to something ‘much bigger’ than a ceasefire in the Middle East. The U.S. and UK have formally agreed on a trade deal with British auto makers and the aerospace sector spared President Trump’s levies. Steel and aluminium tariffs, however, remain in place for the time being. We hear from Shell CEO Wael Sawan who says his company will continue to guarantee energy production and delivery despite the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

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The conflict between Israel and Iran enters its fourth day. NBC News confirms that U.S. President Trump rejected Israel’s proposal to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. G7 leaders arrive in Calgary, Canada with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East at the forefront of the agenda but tariff talks will weigh on discussions between President Trump and other heads of state. Renault CEO Luca De Meo is to step down as CEO of the French autos giant and pursue a role outside the sector. Reports in French media suggest he may next take the helm at Gucci owner Kering.

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Israel has launched unilateral overnight airstrikes in Iran, targeting key nuclear infrastructure and military sites as well as killing the head of the army and the leader of the IRGC. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed ‘extreme punishment’ against Israel. Tehran has launched up to 100 drones towards Israel in retaliation. Oil spikes to its highest level in almost 5 months as investors rush to safe-haven stocks amid the volatility. World leaders have reacted with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urging calm while Riyadh slams the move as a violation of sovereignty and international law.

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President Trump says the U.S.-China trade agreement is complete following this week’s framework deal in London. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the two sides could begin to benefit from the tariff truce almost immediately. Market reaction, however, has been tepid with European equities set to open lower while oil is up on renewed fears of escalation between Israel and Iran. We hear from French President Emmanuel Macron at Vivatech in Paris who says the deal between France’s Mistral AI and chip giant Nvidia marks a ‘game-changing’ moment for European technology.  

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U.S. and Chinese trade delegates complete a late-night framework agreement in London to continue the trade truce between the world’s largest two economies. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hailed the positive and constructive nature of the talks. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, is to set out $2tn in public spending as the government aims to stem haemorrhaging public opinion. The EU is reportedly ready to greenlight Italian lender Unicredit’s bid to buy up rival BPM. The move could place Brussels at loggerheads with Rome which has invoked its ‘golden powers’ rule that allows the government to impose conditions or exercise a veto over companies holding nationally strategic assets. French tech company Mistral AI unveils its first reasoning model which uses multiple languages.

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High-level U.S.-China trade talks enter a second day in London with reports stating that Washington may relax chip export controls if Beijing agrees to speed up rare earth exports. President Trump says ‘opening up’ China would bring global benefits. U.S. Marines are deployed in Los Angeles where protests against ICE deportations of illegal immigrants continue. California Democrats say the move violates federal law. OpenAI posts annual recurring revenue of $10bn thanks to growth in its consumer and business ChatGPT products.

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