Standard Chartered Money Insights

After a decade-long lull, markets have started to price in higher inflation expectations. However, we believe the growth outlook will be a more important driver of equities over the next 12 months as inflation gradually abates. We prefer equities over bonds and cash, but an allocation to gold can help mitigate any inflation surprises along the way.

Speakers:
- Marco Iachini, Cross-Asset Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank
- Manpreet Gill, Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Investment Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank

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There may be a tactical opportunity to fade recent GBP strength ahead of the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) meeting. Timing is key, though, given the presence of month-end flows, which could distort price action.

Speaker:
- DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

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The Q3 corporate earnings season is promising to be a strong driver of our two preferred equity markets – the US and Euro area. US companies are once again exceeding earnings and revenue estimates, leading to upgrades to future earnings expectations. Positive earnings growth surprises typically lead to sustained stock market outperformance, especially if monetary policy is supportive.

Speakers:
- Marco Iachini, Cross-Asset Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank
- Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go.

We believe the risk-reward of chasing the USD higher from here is poor. For USD/JPY, though, oil prices are a risk.

Speaker:
- DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go.

The stars are aligning for the Fed to start tapering bond purchases this year, though tapering and rate hikes have historically not stood in the way of equity market gains till monetary policy becomes outright tight. We continue to favour US and Euro area equities.

In China, though, the focus remains on property sector stress. We continue to believe a broader crisis is unlikely, but a catalyst in the form of less uncertainty or policy easing may be needed to trigger a bottom in Asian High Yield (HY) bonds.

Speakers:
- Manish Jaradi, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank
- Abhilash Narayan, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

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Both the CAD and JPY exhibit interesting technical breakouts in recent days, albeit in opposite directions. In this podcast, we discuss whether the moves are consistent with fundamentals and whether the moves represent an investment opportunity.

Speaker:
- Manpreet Gill, Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Investment Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank

For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go.

There is a building narrative that the world may be shifting from a reflation to a stagflation regime. While it is likely that global growth will slow as emergency stimuli are unwound and that inflation will stay elevated for longer due to supply constraints, we believe key indicators are not pointing to a stagflation outlook. As such, we would use any market dislocation to add exposure to risk assets.

Speakers:
- Manish Jaradi, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank
- Manpreet Gill, Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Investment Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank

For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go.

Australia’s RBA and New Zealand’s RBNZ hold key policy meetings this week. The AUD could be set to outperform as we see greater room for a currency-supportive policy surprise.

Speaker:
- Manpreet Gill, Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Investment Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank

For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go.

Central bank bond purchase tapering and rising expectations of policy rate hikes across developed economies are signs of growing confidence in the economic recovery. Global equities and riskier bonds are likely to remain well-supported on a 6-12-month horizon in this environment as inflation-adjusted interest rates stay low, or negative. We retain a preference for US and Euro area equities.

Speakers:
- Manish Jaradi, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank
- Abhilash Narayan, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go.

German election results are in, and it appears the base-case scenario of a left-leaning coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP is playing out. In this episode, DJ Cheong highlights what this means for the EUR in the near and medium-term.

Speaker:
- DJ Cheong, Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go.