STRAT

On this episode of STRAT with Hal Kemper and Mark Mansfield, today’s world is one of strategic risk, where the once ‘unlikely’ is now ‘likely,’ and the ‘never could happen,’ does happen. These events are awkward for everyone - leaders, stakeholders, and investors. As the famous Marine Corps poster of John Wayne as 'Sgt. John Stryker' in the Sands of Iwo Jima succinctly framed: "life's tough, but it’s tougher if you’re  stupid.” While that message was bluntly aimed at those going through Marine Boot Camp in the movie, the parallel today is that ignorance is not bliss - the ability and capability to fully envision both probable and possible scenarios, and plan, accordingly, is not a "nice to have," rather it’s a strategic “must have.” 

 Too many organizations conduct their “planning” based on ill-conceived or ill-informed historical “assumptions” rather than a forward looking – ‘heads-up’ approach. To that point, President and General Eisenhower once said that ‘peacetime plans are useless, but peacetime planning is priceless,’ meaning it is the intellectual rigor of the planning process that helps prepare us for whatever will eventually happen, even if our current plans are not identical to the unfolding events; at the very least we must be somewhat prepared and ‘directionally correct’ to take action and mitigate risk.   

Scenario based planning depends on fostering adaptability as well as flexibility, through a rigorous and dynamic planning approach. Too often this is lacking in companies subsumed with day-to-day ‘optempo’ requirements, or where the “opinion of the boss” vanquishes critical thought, “loyal opposition” to groupthink and desperately needed innovation. This must be broken down and replaced with objectivity, nimbleness, and an action mindset.

Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the various facets of this topic, drilling down below the headlines and catch phrases to develop a better understanding of not just what it means, but figuring out what it means we need to do. 

STRAT RESOURCE CENTER: CLICK HERE

The world remains dependent on maritime supply chains. This merits serious attention given the dramatic changes in the overall maritime theater, specifically geopolitical tensions that create choke points  through confrontation.  The threats are framed  not only by escalating sovereignty claims, but an unprecedented build up in naval warships as well as advanced weaponry – think underwater sensor arrays and drones, etc.  Further, consider the threat of naval blockades in the Black Sea, Iranian "piracy" in the Persian Gulf, maritime terrorism in the Red Sea or transnational criminal cartels drawing tremendous profits from illegal operations waters worldwide, 

However, regardless of the threat potential there is unlimited opportunity, if the threat environment is studied, understood and proactively addressed.  "De-risking" vital supply chains have many levels of meaning, but again, almost all of them look to the sea.  (See the STRAT Podcast: Securing Strategic Sourcing). 

Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the various facets of this topic, drilling down below the headlines and catch phrases to develop a better understanding of not just what it means, but figuring out what it means we need to do.

STRAT RESOURCE CENTER: CLICK HERE

On this episode of STRAT...As global supply chains become increasingly more tenuous, and "de-risking" becomes a strategic by-word in industry and government, manufacturing technology and operations take on a renewed strategic importance reminiscent of the Cold War. In the concept of "Fortress North America," lines of internal communication and vertical integration are key, as business realizes that offshoring in places like China entails far greater risk on many levels. With the introduction of other variables, such as political upheaval, war and catastrophic events, extended supply chains emerge as a serious liability. Moreover, the manufacturing equation is being reworked given the flexibility that automation, artificial intelligence and robotics introduce, which can be a competitive advantage for both you and your competitor. STRAT looks at the risks, as well as the unintended consequences associated with some Manufacturing Strategies and Government Policies that are designed to recruit manufacturing tech/jobs but actually create ‘subsidy wars,’ and encourage commercial tech platforms to ‘subsidy shop,’ playing partners off against one another and unintentionally straining established political and defense alliances. STRAT looks at the risks as well as concrete “de-risking” actions and steps that can be taken to position manufacturing as a key means of mitigation. 

Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the various facets of this topic, drilling down below the headlines and catch phrases to develop a better understanding of not just what it means, but figuring out what we need to do. 

STRAT RESOURCE CENTER: CLICK HERE

As supply chains for critical materials, components and products have shifted and are still shifting, so must our strategic plans for making sure the sources of what we need are adequately "secured." In the concept of continuity of operations, we ae essentially trying to build a plan to keep one disaster from creating another. The pandemic brought this reality into stark and sudden awareness to everyone, as COVID related "shelter in place" and draconian "social distancing" orders dramatically curtailed economic activity worldwide. Factories shuttered, travel halted, schools were empty and stores were forced to close. In many cases, we saw not just reduced shipments of vital materials, parts and products, but the very business lifelines for innumerable firms completely stopped, and with that the livelihoods of millions. Store shelves, based on "just in time inventory,” quickly went empty. Certain products (e.g., masks, cleaning wipes, etc.) had to be rationed, if they were even available.

Now the War in Ukraine and potential conflict in the South China Sea have made us even more aware of the vulnerabilities we face. Gas, oil, wheat, nickel and so many more critical materials have all been dramatically impacted over the last two years. New global alliances have formed, older ones reinforced, and yes, some have crumbled. Many "sacred truths" of the post-Cold War globalization era are being rewritten, and our eyes are being opened to potentially catastrophic consequences if we are not truly prepared. 

Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the issues, and drill down below the headlines and catch phrases, to develop a far better understanding of not just what this change means, but figuring out what it means we must do. As the great scientist Louis Pasteur said, "Chance Favors the Prepared Mind," this is the chance to prepare your mind.

If the “once every 500 year” flood or fire is occurring every 5-10 years, then obviously it is no longer a threat faced once every five centuries. Both natural and manmade disasters are occurring with more frequency and greater impact, yet too many private and public entities are relatively unprepared, attributing these events to being “black swans” or “acts of God” as if that alleviates them of the responsibility to manage and lead. As we all should know, Continuity Of Operations Planning (COOP) is far more than an “IT offsite,” it’s about ensuring your organization can continue to “stay in business” when external (and sometimes internal) threats and hazards undermine what we rely upon to even be in business, sometimes upending our very core “assumptions.” Mitigating and potentially “neutralizing” the impact of natural events takes understanding and planning, and a genuinely “prepared mind.” Globally experienced investment banker Mark Mansfield and widely recognized risk management expert Hal Kempfer target the real-world, relevant facets of this topic, drilling down below the headlines and catch phrases, exploring the fundamentals, and ultimately discussing what next steps are actionable and accessible on this episode of STRAT (Strategic Risk Assessment Talk).

In this eye-opening episode of STRAT:  Strategic Risk Assessment Talk, the hosts delve into pressing issues at the intersection of energy, environment, and global development. They kick off by examining Russia's stranglehold on atomic fuels, raising questions about its impact on the journey towards carbon neutrality. The discussion then takes a deep dive into the viability of solar and wind energy as primary solutions, dissecting the challenges that accompany their adoption. We thoughtfully explore the trade-offs between developing and developed nations, pondering whether developing countries can break free from the carbon-intensive path paved by their predecessors. The complex dynamics of solar and wind energy come into focus as the hosts unravel the reasons behind the 16 percent drop in installations during 2022 and the enduring cost fluctuations. Furthermore, the vulnerability of underwater power and the strain placed on outdated infrastructure by the surging number of energy projects awaiting grid connections are scrutinized, shedding light on the setbacks faced by the industry. With over 8,100 energy projects queued for grid integration by the close of 2021, the challenges of interconnection become apparent. Join Hal Kempfer and Mark Mansfield as they navigate through these intricate matters, providing unparalleled insights into the multifaceted landscape of strategic energy risk assessment on the Mutual Broadcasting System.

With the rapid decrease in offshoring and foreign investment in China, and the advancement of a concept sometimes called “Fortress North America,” the potential of Mexico to benefit from this trend has never been greater. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore what this means, how it mitigates supply chain risk globally, and some of the inherent challenges and strategic gains of realigning production and manufacturing to Mexico and Central America on this episode of STRAT.

Welcome to STRAT, the insightful podcast hosted by renowned risk assessment expert Hal Kempfer and investment banker Mark Mansfield. In this thought-provoking episode, India at a Crossroads, the hosts embark on a riveting exploration of India's unprecedented growth and challenges. As India's rapid GDP expansion propels it to the top of the population charts, they ponder whether it can outpace China as the world's manufacturing center. Delving into the crucial issue of the youth bulge, they examine its potential as a demographic dividend or a ticking time bomb. With a spotlight on the pressing pollution problems akin to China, Hal and Mark assess India's strategies to combat environmental challenges. Moreover, they critically scrutinize the quality of India's education system and its capacity to support a burgeoning industrial labor force. Kempfer and Mansfield unravel the complexities of India's future, offering insightful perspectives on the path it must chart to secure its place on the global stage.

Hal Kempfer and Mark Mansfield discuss what the China Challenge is for the United States, North America, Europe and the World. They discuss how slowing economic growth and an aging population are among the biggest challenges facing China and that includes a shift in the manufacturing base to Southeast Asia, Latin America and India.

The hosts also discuss Chips when the chips are down, and what China has learned from Russia's invasion of Taiwan. Plus, what will happen to China's trade relationships with export curbs slapped on materials used to make semiconductors.