STRAT

The movement of goods and services - going to work, transporting raw materials as well as manufactured items, and providing predictable services in a harmonized fashion is critical to a solid economic culture and functional modern society. While the issue of "infrastructure" may seem to be an externality to most of us and something beyond our immediate control, it is essential to the success and even survival of our republic and global order - in which we are all stakeholders. The American Society of Civil Engineers grades American infrastructure as C minus, and public investment in domestic infrastructure as a share of GDP has fallen by more than 40% since the 1960s. US infrastructure was once rated the world's best and is now rated as 13th. In short, there is an enormous need for dramatic new infrastructure investment, and while the $1.7 trillion bill signed by President Biden is a big step forward, our domestic infrastructure problem represents an enormous shortfall that has increased more quickly than the public capacity to keep up. As the US and more broadly – ‘Fortress North America’, are grappling with this challenge, we are just part of a $15 trillion gap in what is needed to provide adequate global infrastructure by 2040. Private investment to date has been a drop in bucket, and this bucket is leaking fast. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer tackle this challenge head on, discussing the significant problems, implications, and critical need for corrective action on this episode of STRAT.

The world’s top two economies are devolving, and there is a desperate need to rebuild ties, both politically and economically with the rest of the world as stakeholders. To that point, a carefully orchestrated meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden at the APEC Summit was held on November 17 in San Francisco, and the world now wonders what difference it made. If China and the USA continue to separate, the global economy will fragment – and this will inevitably lead to slower growth and more inequality, and geopolitical instability. In the worst case, the spiraling events could potentially cause a true world war. On this episode of STRAT the hosts see the threat of this divergence from a multi-polarity norm, per their previous discussions, as having potentially catastrophic consequences. Hope is that Xi considers that he has miscalculated. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer discuss this and more in examining what is the biggest threat to the global order since the end of the Cold War.

On this episode of STRAT, Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer tackle the issue of a fragmenting world order, where relative influence and leadership is shifting rapidly and framed by a US and China bilateral relationship tilting towards conflict. They look at various potential scenarios:

•           There is no scenario where the US and China become fully cooperative.

•           Most nations’ cost-benefit analysis’ support a world order where US leadership remains preferable to China or other non-aligned players.

•           The extremes of either a UNIPOLAR or BIPOLAR world – i.e., an old Cold War style scenario, will morph into a MULTIPOLAR gameboard.

•           As middle powers continually maneuver to remain relevant, a multipolar landscape creates the ‘off ramps,’ realignment options and triggers needed to dilute / balance the relative strength of both the US and China - (‘Balancers’: India, Japan, Germany, France, UK, and Canada).

•           ‘Spoiler’ status will remain with Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

In an uncertain world, with an increasingly dynamic planning environment, this is 20 minutes you don’t want to miss.

Co-Hosts Hal Kempfer and Mark Mansfield have returned from a Thanksgiving Break to get back to the reality of what forces and externalities are driving business decisions. On this episode of STRAT, they examine the overarching concern about climate change and renewables. It is real and it deserves focused analysis. They make it clear that there is a need for a reality wrapper on the unbridled enthusiasm that is creating a gap between goals and realistic milestones. There is a lot to unpack in terms of the How, the When, and the What in terms of economic reality, relevant science, and managing unintended consequences. How do hope and good intentions intersect with reality? It’s an important question and in this episode, Mark and Hal will objectively direct you on this complex issue with the objective to appreciate and adopt a balanced action plan for a sustainable future.

There is no question that the US dollar’s position of being the Global Reserve Currency provides unparalleled strength as well as flexibility in borrowing. Some may argue, especially during this election cycle, there is too much flexibility. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer take on this critical currency discussion, looking at opportunities and peril in our modern age, and all of it aimed at preparedness on this episode of STRAT. The US dollar dominance and its preservation has become a principal theater for the great power struggle between the United States, China, and Russia—placing the future of the Western or Liberal international order in the balance.

 While the dollar is the only truly global currency in the world, and is widely used for transactions, pricing, settlement, and investment by governments and private actors outside the United States, there are other powers want to change that status, creating an alternative reserve currency. In addition, the role of cryptocurrency is discussed. As we all know, it is a phenomenon that is being actively explored and researched by academics, policymakers, investors, and consumers. While some equate it to “Dutch Tulips” of an earlier century, others feel it is truly the future of money. It is unknown what would happen to global or geographic financial stability if cryptocurrency replaced fiat currencies, but Mark and Hal take on this subject and more.

There is a rising tide of terror in and environment where the events of October 7, 2023 changed everything. Co-hosts Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer discuss this and how to effectively mitigate and prevent these risks to maintain optimal business continuity on this episode of STRAT. They reference a long history of successful terrorism prevention efforts including one with unprecedented achievement in stopping deadly attacks on the U.S. West Coast. Further, they detail how a larger post-9/11 focus in public safety has become less ROI as pro forma box-checking and the malaise of bureaucratization has replaced attempts to do better in genuine measures of effectiveness.

When terrorism prevention fails, there are always dire consequences. The world is now seeing this new threat incur greater costs in protecting critical infrastructure, supply chains, workplaces, areas of assembly, and more. Listen to this edition for our experts take on strategies that have been successful in the past and will continue to be cost-effective into the future.

CLICK HERE for our Resource Center

Hosts Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer discuss a conflict that could potentially upend global supply chains and spur enormous prices shocks here at home. Beyond the enormous human tragedy of October 7th and now the grueling military campaign in Gaza, lies how this conflict can affect the War in Ukraine and the hegemonic “ascendancy” of China. Could China see this as an opportunity for military action in the South China Sea threatening the critical supply of Taiwan chip manufacturing and pulling the US into an enormous war in the West Pacific?! Will this drive more focus on Fortress North America and renewed central planning regards ‘industrial’ policies by ‘capitalistic’ countries as they try to secure their economies?! Further, this goes to Iran, and its role as the regional armchair quarterback of radicalized mayhem and general troublemaker of the Middle East. Mark and Hal look at three potential scenarios: 1) the conflict stays contained to Gaza and Israel; 2) it expands into a multi-front proxy war that is largely contained within Gaza/West Bank/Lebanon/Syria; or, 3) it expands to the “Full Monty” of naked aggression by Iran that endangers transit through the Persian Gulf, Straits of Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb, the Red Sea and Suez Canal. If you are reliant on good from overseas, or just pumping gas into your car, this podcast has something you need to listen too.

It’s inevitable as a human decision makers, we can fall prey to cognitive/organizational biases.‘STRUCTURE FOLLOWS STRATEGY’ and it must be flexible enough to adapt to be thing that is always predictable - change.  Rather than suffering enormous loss to (avoidable) “Black Swans,” Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explain how to genuinely be prepared, and how to use a more strategic approach to both identifying  and truly managing both risks and opportunities.

On this episode of STRAT: Developing a successful business or government operation inherently means leveraging the right capabilities, knowledge and skills in a cost-effective manner. Maintaining continuity of operations in a crisis is even more demanding, as is strategic planning. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the advantages and pitfalls in both insourcing and outsourcing talent, and their perspectives and insights may surprise you, and possibly make you rethink core areas of your own organization.

On this episode of STRAT, Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer dive into what may be the biggest change in our society since the internet, and before that the introduction computers. While everyone has seen Hollywood Sci-Fi’s about the dangers of drones, robots and sentient automation, what does this mean for business, government and how we live from a practical standpoint?! What planning and preparedness should we undertake, and what opportunities and threats does this really represent?!

While some would argue that this started in the ‘70’s when this kind of technology’s potential was recognized as a game changer – a particularly alluring prospect with the backdrop of the Cold War – what’s happening today seems to be occurring at such a rapid clip that it can seem to many of us as simply overwhelming. Leveraging technology is truly the new marching order.  No one had complete idea of what this early-stage manifestation of applied drone systems and related fighting technology (to include lethal AI) would become. Well, welcome to 2023 and the shocking evolution that we are all witnessing and living through – and more importantly, what this will mean off the battlefield for business, the economy and government?

STRAT RESOURCE CENTER: CLICK HERE