Sully's Two Cents

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 85 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I hope that everyone is doing well.  Thanks for being here.

On Wednesday of this week I rolled out what i hope to be the first annual RotoHeat 2020 Redraft Cheat Sheet. The cheat sheet was a ton of work to out together, but it was a ton of fun as well.

The cheat sheet is complete with my top 360 ranked fantasy assets, rankings by position, and tier based rankings. In addition the cheat sheet contains the player’s current Fantasy Pros ADP, suggested auction values, as well as a recommended auction budget percentage and projections for the 2020 season.

Best part of all in my opinion is The RotoHeat 2020 Redraft Cheat Sheet has been designed as a tool for you, the fantasy manager, to download, customize and utilize to prepare for draft day. Best of all, this tool is yours completely FREE.

Today, I am going to wrap up my review of the 2020 Redraft Rankings and next up are the 2020 Redraft Tight End Rankings. 

The TE position over the past three seasons has had considerable movement in and out of the top 12. Since the start of the 2017 season, there have been 24 different TE’s that have posted a top 12 season–3 have done it all three years, 6, twice, and the remaining 15 only once. Since 2010 it has taken, on average, 146.30 PPR points to have a top 12 TE season, and since 2017 it’s dropped to take 133.1.

2019 was the highest of the past three seasons, as 136 points was the price of admission into the top 12. 8.5 PPR points a game is all it takes. Don’t reach for a TE in your drafts. If you miss on one of the big 3 or 4, it’s time to wait as there is value in the later rounds. The TE position is also a very stream-able position as well.

Honorable Mentions

16. T.J. Hockenson – Detroit Lions

In 2019, T.J. Hockenson finished his rookie season as TE 31 with 87.1 fantasy points. He exploded in Week 1 against the Cardinals, though what we know now that we didn’t know then was the Arizona Cardinals were the “free space” on the bingo fantasy card for TEs in 2019. He followed his impressive debut by averaging 18 yards a game in the next 6 weeks. It’s hard to depend on a rookie TE in fantasy, and in 2019, Hockenson was no different.

That said, he battled injury in year one and played half the season without Matthew Stafford. Hock certainly has the ability to put up big fantasy numbers, but he likely needs another season or two before he’s ready for the top 12. As a result, he lands at #16 in my 2020 Redraft Tight End Rankings

15. Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert finished 2019 as the TE10, so having him at 15 in my 2020 Redraft Tight End Rankings at first glance may seem somewhat short-sighted. Goedert remains the second TE in Philadelphia behind TE Zach Ertz, and because of this Goedert’s upside is limited. Still, he’s shown flashes of elite ability himself in his first two seasons. If you believe in his talent enough to overcome low target numbers, you can get Goedert late in drafts, but beware of a low floor every week.

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 84 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I hope that everyone is doing well.  Thanks for being here.

There have been many unique occurrences during the preparation for the 2020 NFL season, as a result of COVID-19.  We had a virtual draft this season, OTA’s and  mini camps were eliminated, and coaching staffs have just recently been permitted back into the team’s training facilities. 

Yesterday, Adam Gruse, our team’s unsung hero dropped a great article – COVID-19’s Impact on the Redraft Fantasy Season. It’s a must read, and really got me to thinking what happens mid season when players start testing positive for the Novel Coronavirus?

The NBA slammed its doors shut after 1 reported positive test. The NHL followed suit a day later suspending their season and the MLB never made it out of spring training.

This week Ezekiel Elliott tested positive, and 13 members of the University of Texas football program did as well. As many jurisdictions in Canada and the United States attempt to reopen their economies, and as the NBA and NHL are sorting out a restart of their season, it’s very important to note that this virus hasn’t simply gone away.

Nobody wants sports back more than I do, trust me. The reality is that as football fans we need to prepare for a season that starts late, one that is suspended once it starts, and perhaps no season at all. It currently looks like teams will have training camps and that the season is planned to start as scheduled.  Let’s hope and pray that we get this virus under control for the citizens of these great nations and we can go back to enjoying all aspects of life including sports. 

Today, I am going to continue to roll thru my Redraft Rankings and next up is the 2020 Redraft Wide Receiver Rankings. 

Since the start of the 2010 season it has taken on average 249.85 PPR points to finish a season as a top 12 wide receiver. Since 2016 the number has dropped to 240 points. 

Since the start of the 2010 season it has taken on average 198.34 PPR points to finish a season as a top 12 wide receiver. Since 2016 the number has climbed to 201 points. 

These are not major swings in point totals but what it does illustrate is that the WR position in fantasy of flattening, and we are seeing more and more receivers become viable in fantasy, especially in leagues that start 2-3 WR, and a flex. 

In Dynasty formats I have forever drafted WR heavily in my start-up drafts and used rookie drafts to back fill my running back roster.  In redraft leagues it’s the complete opposite.  I want as many high-end RB’s on my roster, wide receivers are deep, and in a once around the sun duration redraft league I will wait on my receivers as long as possible.

The other piece that jumped out to me here when putting together my 2020 Redraft Wide Receiver Rankings is don’t fear age.  Now that may be a rather obvious statement but for those that play a lot in both formats, we need to rewire our brains a little when drafting.

In addition to the rankings, I also have tiers to built into my rankings.  Utilizing a tier-based system during your draft is crucial in my opinion. The player you are licking your chops to draft with your next selection is likely a player many covet.  Having a quick pivot plan once the player comes off the board is imperative.

2020 Redraft Wide Receiver Rankings

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 83 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I hope that everyone is doing well.  Thanks for being here.

I am in the process of switching the podcast from more of a dynasty focus to a redraft focus.  You may or may not have noticed that my rotoheat.com content has taken the same turn.

The podcast has a name change and soon a new looking logo.  Its now Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I remain an avid dynasty participant and I will always have my 2 cents regarding everything dynasty.  As we navigate through the calendar each year the offseason of this podcast will be very dynasty focused for obvious reason.  The rookie content will be there and as we near the start of the season, this podcast will become more Redraft focused especially during the season. 

In addition we are proud to announce that we will soon be live streaming Monday-Friday at 9:30PM on our YouTube Channel.

Monday Night: IDP w/ Brad Menendez, Kraig Rueth & Paul Veldboom

Tuesday Night: Dynasty w/ Rick Butts, Robert Silvers, Anthony Leone, & Jason Abild

Wednesday Night: Redraft with Rob Sullivan, Robert Silvers, & Bryce Frazier

Thursday Night: Devy w/ Brad Menendez, Shane Hallam, Robert Silvers & Paul Veldboom

Friday Night: DFS w/ Rick Butts, Craig Bullock, Jason Abild, and Sean Coffey

Since the start of the 2010 season it has taken on average 219.02 PPR points to finish a season as a top 12 fantasy running back. There are a handful of elite running backs as we enter the 2020 season, and a large group of backs with top 12 upside.

It has been a volatile position over the last few seasons, as we have seen plenty of movement within RB rankings and end of season numbers. While we are not in the bell cow running back days anymore, there are more names starting to get the rock at a steady rate. Predicting RB usage and productivity gets more and more difficult with each passing season.

2020 Redraft Running Back Rankings

Honorable Mentions

16. Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones enjoyed his best season a year ago finishing the season as the second highest scoring RB with 314.8 PPR fantasy points. 2019 was Jones’ first full 16 game season, it was also his first season north of 1000 yards rushing. The number that leaps off the page when looking at Jones’ season from a year ago is the 19 total touchdowns. Those 19 scores were tied for the most in the league with Christian McCaffrey. Jones were almost certainly regress in 2020 from a touchdown and workload perspective.

Green Bay selected AJ Dillon in the draft, and still employ Jamal Williams. The addition of Dillon should impact Jones’ goal line carries and the Packers have a desire of a balanced attack with their running backs. Aaron Jones remains the most talented of the group, and his ability to catch the football will bolster his overall value.

15. Todd Gurley – Atlanta Falcons

Todd Gurley finished 2019 as RB14 with 219.

2020 Redraft Quarterback Rankings

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 82 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I hope that everyone is doing well.  Thanks for being here.

I am in the process of switching the podcast from more of a dynasty focus to a redraft focus.  You may or may not have noticed that my rotoheat.com content has taken the same turn.

The podcast has a name change and soon a new looking logo.  Its now Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I remain an avid dynasty participant and I will always have my 2 cents regarding everything dynasty.  As we navigate through the calendar each year the offseason of this podcast will be very dynasty focused for obvious reason.  The rookie content will be there and as we near the start of the season, we will become more redraft focused especially during the season. 

So with that out of the way, today I am going to roll thru my 2020 Redraft Quarterback Rankings.

Of all the positions to rank, quarterback remains the most difficult. If given enough time, I can make a compelling argument for 20-23 of the leagues starting quarterbacks to be top 12 fantasy options. Lamar Jackson led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game with 28.11. Tom Brady finished as QB12 with 271.68 points or 16.98 per game. In 2019 there were 22 quarterbacks that averaged 15.97 points per game or better. The position has never been tighter.

Honorable Mentions

16. Ben Roethlisberger

When we last saw Ben Roethlisberger, he was walking off the field holding his right throwing arm midway through Week 2 versus the Seattle Seahawks. Big Ben underwent elbow surgery and was lost for the remainder of the season. In 2018, Big Ben finished as the QB3 averaging 21.3 points per game. Ben has different weapons than he did in 2018, most notably the absence of Antonio Brown. Juju Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and James Washington make up the Steelers 3 WR sets, and newly signed TE Eric Ebron gives Ben a nice, big red zone target.

15. Daniel Jones

In 2019, Daniel Jones took a hold of the Giants starting QB role and finished the season at QB23 in 13 games played. His 17.46 points per game were 14th best among quarterbacks with 13 or more games played. Jones showed good and bad qualities in his rookie season. He threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in the Giants come from behind victory over Tampa Bay in Week 3, and he also had a pair of 3 interception games versus New England and Green Bay. With the weapons Jones has in his offense, if he can improve his ball security from a year ago, (11 lost fumbles), and those weapons remain healthy, Jones will have a ceiling that may exceed this ranking in his sophomore season.

14. Baker Mayfield

The QB that was supposed to break out last year was Baker Mayfield.  Not only did he not breakout, he regressed significantly.  People that hate on Baker forget how bad of a coach Freddie Kitchens really was.  The Browns have significantly upgraded their coaching staff, have a plethora of weapons on offense, and that was before they added Austin Hooper. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry also got healthy. Baker will right the wrongs of 2019 in 2020

13. Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford had his 2019 season cut short due to a back injury. Stafford last appeared in Week 9, having played in eight games. At the time of his injury, he was QB6 with 171.56 fantasy points. Stafford was off to the best statistical start of his 11-year career and was on pace to finish the season wi...

Dynasty Start Up 101

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 81 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I hope that everyone is doing well.  Thanks for being here.

Today is a special episode that I have been meaning to get to for weeks and finally have managed to sort it all out and record this.  This is an episode that I am very excited about and the biggest reason for this is that, this episode is a listener request episode. A few weeks back Al Preziosi reached out to me in the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football Community on Facebook. 

A little back story on my man Al here.  Al joined our community on May 12 of this year.  He took the leap into Dynasty Fantasy Football a year ago taking over an orphan team, and he is currently preparing for this first startup draft. Al is trying to absorb as much dynasty content as possible preparing for this startup draft. This will be his first dynasty startup.  He let me know that there is not that much content out there about startup drafts and he was wondering if my audience would be interested.  Well Al, we are about to find out my man.

I can tell you all that in my brief chats with Al via Facebook Messenger that he is way more prepared for his first startup than I was for mine. 

He has a BPA (best player available),approach. His league is a .5 PPR, .1 PPC, 1 QB League. In this startup Al has the 6th pick.  He mentioned to me that he intends to try and trade back, he wants to go RB early as he has noticed that RB’s fly off the board early and you are left with crap after the first few rounds.  He trust’s his ability to nail a late round WR much more than a RB.  He generally waits on TE and even longer on QB.

See I told y’all Al was prepared. 

In addition, Al was looking for some value picks, specifically my favorite value picks, especially deep sleepers in startups. So, Al has really put me to work here, and I love it.  I am going to tackle this, this way.

I will start off with my rules for Dynasty Start-ups, things that I believe are important and thing I focus on when I compete my stat ups.  I should say, I don’t consider myself the best drafter in the world, I’m good but I am not a Guru my any means.  My specialty is the rebuild and I might just have to do another podcast on that topic. But that is a story for another day.

Then I am going to mock the first 6 rounds of your upcoming draft.  Talk about each of you top 6 picks out of the 6 hole and players that I believe will be there for you.

Wrap it up with some deep sleepers guys to target in the later rounds of your draft.  Al’s league up is 25 man roster so we will go shopping in round 23 and see what is there.  Should be a blast.

OK lets go, Sully’s Dynasty Start-Up 101

1. Know your leagues rules and the scoring system. 

It sounds simple, but there are a lot of leagues with variations of starting spots, scoring settings, and other quirks that make each league unique. I can take this a step further, know the bylaws as well and to be honest you should know all this stuff before you join the league let alone your startup.

Good news here is Al has this covered.  As we discussed this is a .5 PPR, .1 PPC, 1 QB League.  Starting lineup are 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex.  Having this sorted out is crucial.  You must know what you are trying to accomplish.  Your rules and scoring are your road map, without it you are lost and will wonder how the hell you ended up where you ended up.  I can’t tell you how many times in the middle of drafts that an owner will post is this a PPR league in th...

Round One Rookie Drafts in the Past 10 Seasons

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 80 of Sully’s 2 Cents Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan.

So, a few episodes ago, episode 76 to be exact I discussed rookie fever, and I specifically used the 1.06 draft slot vs. Lamar Jackson.  That episode it would appear accomplished a few things, 1. I was dead wrong on my Lamar Jackson value, and 2, it appears that you the listeners enjoyed it. Based on a request from our Facebook community member Michael Altman, I am going to take that a little further and break down each draft slot in the first round, hit values and all. 

Last episode I went thru the 1.01-1.06 and today  I will wrap it up with picks 1.07-1.12. Quick refresher, A hit season is any QB that has had a top 12 season, RB that has had a top 24 season, top 36 season for WR, and top 12 for the TE’s.  From 2010-2019 there were 779 skill position players drafted 120 were first round selections.

1.07

From 2010 – 2019 Out of the 7 hole we had 4 RB’s, 5WR’s, and a TE selected.  They averaged 109.87 PPR points a season collectively.  The RB’s – 83.89, the WR’s – 128.52, and the TE 102.53.

The highlight of the 1.07  group was 2016 selection Michael Thomas.  As I mentioned the WR’s averaged 128.52 PPRs a season.  If you back out MT, the 1.07 WR’s the remaining 4 averaged 85.38 points/season. 

That is the power that a WR who has averaged 301.8 over his 4 seasons has. Thomas had his best season in 2019 in which he broke reception records and finished atop the WR fantasy mountain with 374.6 points. 

The other WR’s selected with the 1.07 in the past ten seasons.

2013 – Cordarrelle Patterson

CP’s career average of 81.57 points a season, career high 149.7 in his rookie season.  He finished as WR46. There is nothing to get excited about in terms of Cordarrelle Patterson.

2014 – Jordan Matthews

Career average of 121.8 points a season, career high 230.7 in his second season.  He finished as WR17 that season and it looked like he was on a path to break out in year 3.  Instead he just broke down.  In his next 4 seasons scored 171.4 , 57.2, 62, and 7.3 last season.

2015 – Dorial Green Beckham 

DGB played in a whopping two seasons and averaged 100.05 points.  112.9 in his rookie season, 87.2 in year two. Prior to the 2017 season he was released by the Eagles. 

2019 – Parris Campbell

Last season Parris Campbell appeared in 7 games, starting 3 of them.  24 targets, 18 receptions, 127 yards and a single touchdown.  38.1 PPR points and WR 125.  It’s a little too soon to call Parris Campbell a bust, nit if he doesn’t have a decent 2020, he is going to be very close to it.

The 4 RB’s selected with the 1.07

2010- Ben Tate

Tate played from 2011-2014.  His first season he had 175 carries 942 yards and 4 TDs’.  He added 13 catches for 98 yards as well.   His best fantasy season was 2013 where he finished as RB29. Tate finished 2011 as RB32, 2012 RB66, 2013 RB29 , 2014 split between Cleveland and Minnesota he finished as RB57.  Tate failed to deliver a hit season in his brief career and was a yet another bust of a 1.07 selection.

2011- Daniel Thomas

Thomas played in 4 seasons all with the Miami Dolphins.

Round One Rookie Drafts in the Past 10 Seasons

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 79 of Sully’s 2 Cents Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan.

So, a few episodes ago, episode 76 to be exact I discussed rookie fever, and I specifically used the 1.06 draft slot vs. Lamar Jackson.  That episode it would appear accomplished a few things, 1. I was dead wrong on my Lamar Jackson value, and 2, it appears that you the listeners enjoyed it. 

I am going to take that a little further and break down each draft slot in the first round, hit values and all.  Today I tackle 1.01-1.06 and the next episode I will wrap it up with picks 1.07-1.12.

So, Just when you thought I was done rambling on about Hit rate metrics, here we go again. Quick refresher, A hit season is any QB that has had a top 12 season, RB that has had a top 24 season, top 36 season for WR, and top 12 for the TE’s.  From 2010-2019 there were 779 skill position players drafted 120 were first round selections.

1.01

Dating back to 2010 there have been 5 RB and 5 WR selected in the 1.01 position.  The average PPR points per season for the 1.01’s from 2010-2019 is 206.66 points.  249.68 for the running backs and 163.65 for the WR’s.

2010 – Dez Bryant

Dez played 8 seasons in Dallas and averaged 214.14 PPR a season.  He finished as a top 12 WR 3 straight seasons from 2012-2014 included a career high 316 points in 2014.  In total Dez had 4 hit seasons.

2011- AJ Green

Green delivered a hit season as a rookie in and every season after that until a 9-game injury shortened 2018 season.  He has been a WR1 4 times and enters his 2020 season with a career average season total  233.25 PPR points

2012 – Trent Richardson

T-Rich was an RB1 in his rookie season posting 254.7 PPR points, on the strength of 11 touchdowns.  After two games in his sophomore season he was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2014 1st round pick that ended up being QB Johnny Manziel.  T-Rich finished 2013 as RB32 and 2014 as RB36.  IN 2015 he was waived by the Colts, signed with Oakland, and was released prior to the start of the season. Signed and released without appearing in a game in 2016 was the last we saw of him in the NFL.

2013- Tavon Austin

Austin started his career in St. Louis and after 5 seasons in St. Louis and Los Angeles, signed with the Cowboys for the past two seasons.  His best season was 2015 in which he posted 907 total yards and 9 TD’s 104 touches.  His WR28 season was the only hit season of his career to date in which he has averaged 98.19 points a season. If you selected Tavon Austin first overall in 2013 like many did, you made the worst 1.01 selection of the decade.

ORCHARD PARK, NY – DECEMBER 11: Sammy Watkins #14 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates a touchdown catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at New Era Field on December 11, 2016 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) Round One Rookie Drafts in the Past 10 Seasons

2014 – Sammy Watkins

In a star studded WR class it was Watkins that topped them all in ADP and was the 1.01 in 2014.  Watkins was WR27 in 2014 and WR20 in 2015.  He hasn’t delivered a hit season since as he has battled injures and has seen his mailing address change twice.

2015- Todd Gurley

Gurley has delivered a hit season in all 5 of his seasons including 3 RB1 seaso...

16 Dynasty Breakouts for 2020 AFC

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 78 of Sully’s 2 Cents Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. A couple of seasons ago I wrote a weekly 32 fantasy thoughts article that touched on each NFL team’s previous week.  Those articles were quite enjoyable to put together and also rather time consuming.  Since adding this podcast to my portfolio and increasing my content in general for the website, 32 thoughts articles fell by the wayside. 

Last week I brought you the 16 Dynasty Breakouts for 2020 – NFC, and today, I give you the 16 Dynasty Breakouts for 2020, from the AFC.   

Since my last podcast, RotoHeat’s own Brad Menendez dropped the RotoHeat consensus top 10 Breakout RB’s over on YouTube.  As usual Brad did a stellar job, and the debate on whether a rookie can be a breakout was born.  So if you listened to episode 77, you would know that I do believe that rookies can be breakouts. 

Michael Thomas rookie season 2016; 92 catches 1137 yards and 9 TD’S, WR9 finish. He finished as the WR8 in ’17 and ’18 and was the WR1 overall in 2019.  Where is his breakout? Does wide receiver need to finish in the top 8 to be considered a breakout?

Russell Wilson was QB11 in his rookie year.  He has been a QB1 in all 8 seasons of his career his lowest finish was his QB11 finish in his rookie year.

Saquon Barkley in his 2018 rookie season ran for 1307 yards added 721 more thru the air and scored 15 touchdowns.  He had over 1400 total yards and 8 scores in year 2 on basically one leg more a good portion of it.  Are we still waiting on Saquon to break out or was his sophomore season in which his total yardage decreased by 587 and his TD total declined by 7 from his rookie season his breakout year.

Its not the norm, but a rookie season can be and has been a breakout season.  So with that in mind you’ll find some rookies here.  I’m cool if y’all don’t agree. After all, not agreeing is one of the greatest single components of fantasy football. 

Baltimore Ravens – RB J.K. Dobbins

Selecting my dynasty breakout for the Ravens was tough, there are lots of potentials, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Devin Duvernay and even Nick Boyle who almost got the nod here.

In the end I went with Ohio State rookie JK Dobbins. Now I fully expect this to not look that great in the early going, I do however feel that my mid-season the backfield in Baltimore is going to be his.  This offense will morph itself into whatever type of offense OC Greg Roman feels it needs to in order to win.  We saw it with Roman in Sf and Colin Kaepernick, last season with Lamar Jackson and we will see it this year with JK Dobbins. 

Mark Ingram isn’t going to fall off a cliff here and he will still be heavily involved especially early in the season.  I see Dobbins in the lower end RB2 conversation at seasons end and into 2021 and beyond he’s a top 12 talent.

Buffalo Bills – TE Dawson Knox

Knox was a 3rd round selection 96th overall in 2019.  He played 18 games at Ole Miss and had 39 grabs for 605 yards.  Interestingly enough he never scored a college touchdown.  In his rookie season a year ago Knox saw 50 targets hauled in 28 of them for 388 yards and 2 TD’s. 

He finished 2019 as TE33 with 79.7 PPR points in 15 games.

Knox isn’t a TE that I project exploding in 2020, but I do see his numbers increasing.

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 77 of Sully’s 2 Cents Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast. A couple of seasons ago I wrote a weekly 32 fantasy thoughts article for RotoHeat that touched on each NFL team’s previous week.  Those articles were quite enjoyable to put together and also rather time consuming.  Since adding this podcast to my portfolio and increasing my content in general for the website, 32 thoughts articles fell by the wayside. 

In episode 77, I am going to reboot it, sort of. In this episode I give you the 16 Dynasty Breakouts for 2020 – NFC, and next week I will do the same for the AFC.  32 in one pod would be a bit much. So without further ado lets get into it.

16 Dynasty Breakouts for 2020 – NFC

Arizona Cardinals – QB Kyler Murray

OK, so this one is rather easy, It’s fairly safe to say that Kyler broke out in his rookie season. 

He won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and became one of just three signal-callers in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards and run for 500 yards as a rookie. He finished his rookie season as QB7.  The reality is Murray is well-positioned to be even better in 2020. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins was a massive boost to the Arizona passing game, and Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive scheme lends itself well to big numbers from its quarterback. 

Kingsbury like Murray was a rookie in 2019, I would expect an improvement from both, an even faster pace and more 4 WR sets.  Kenyan Drake upgrades the backfield, and Murray can still take off and ran the ball like a select few. In each of the last two seasons, a second-year quarterback took the league by storm on his way to winning NFL MVP. Kyler Murray is going to give three in a row a hell of a run in 2020.

Atlanta Falcons – WR Russell Gage

6th round selection out of LSU in 2018.  55 catches 509 yards and 1 TD in parts of two seasons in Atlanta.  Not all breakouts will lead you to the ship, but Gage showed last year that he’s going to be a part of this offense and that he can be relied upon to contribute. 

Mohammad Sanu was dealt to the Patriots prior to week 8 last year.  At the time Gage 11 receptions for 102 yards.  After the trade Gage finished the season with 38 catches 344 yards and a TD. Gage was WR120 before the trade and WR49 after it.

Furthermore, Austin Hooper missed weeks 11-13 a year ago, in those 3 games Gage saw 23 targets had 15 grabs for 145 yards and the only TD of his career.  Small sample size but over 16 games at that pace its 80/773/5.  In those 3 games Gage was WR27, that 16 game pace BTW would land him as WR32. Hooper is gone and as much as I dig Hayden Hurst, he’s not Austin Hooper.  Gage has legit lower end WR3 potential and in the leagues, I play in where we start 3 WR and 2 flex spots he is absolutely relevant

Carolina Panthers – QB Teddy Bridgewater

It’s been a long road back to starting QB in the NFL for Teddy Bridgewater.  In August of 2016 Bridgewater suffered a non-contract leg injury weeks before the start of the season.  He tore his ACL and dislocated his knee joint.  He missed the entire 2016 season and all but 1 appearance in 2017. 

In 2018 he signed with the Jets and was later traded to the New Orleans Saints.  IN 2019 after a thumb injury forced Drew Brees to the sidelines, Teddy made 5 starts for the Saints and went 5-0 in the process.  133/196 1384 yards, 9 TD and 2 picks. In those 5 games he averaged 9.25 points per game. 

Signing with Carolina to be the starter is a great spot for Bri...

In Episode 76, Sully addresses the Rookie Fever that hits hard this time of year.  It makes sense the dynasty community is inundated with rookie content and these top college athletes are made to look good because well, they are good. Utilizing historical draft data dating back to 2010, its time to finally determine if rookie fever is legit or if its a myth.

In addition Sully compares the value of Lamar Jackson in a .5ppr 1 QB league to the 1.06 rookie pick.