The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”. As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series.
In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP (Average Draft Position) to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.
Sully concludes the 8-part 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JANUARY 14: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Minnesota Vikings scores a touchdown as time expires against the New Orleans Saints during the second half of the NFC Divisional Playoff game at U.S. Bank Stadium on January 14, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – AFC East
Two Players I Am Buying
Stefon Diggs – Overall ADP 63 WR27
After an offseason trade with Minnesota, Stefon Diggs is now the No. 1 WR in Buffalo. Diggs finished his final season in Minnesota as WR21. That was partially thanks to a very low target total (94).
Diggs now transitions into a run heavy Buffalo offense after a frustrating season in the Minnesota run heavy offense. He leaves an accurate QB in Kirk Cousins for the inaccurate QB, Josh Allen. The good news for Diggs is Allen is willing to throw down field more than Cousins. The increase in targets will make up for the accuracy of his QB that he forgoes. I am not overly high on Diggs in 2020, but I do feel that he will have the volume required to eclipse WR27.
John Brown – Overall ADP 119 WR46
After a down season in 2018 in Baltimore, John Brown had a bounce back 2019 finishing as WR20 in Buffalo. It appears that Brown has put the Sickle Cell anemia that dogged him the previous few seasons behind which is a positive.
With Stefon Diggs in town as the Bills’ top dog, it’s hard to project Brown living up to what he did last year. The good news is John Brown won’t cost you anything near where he finished last year, and he will surpass WR46 in 2020.
Two Players I Am Selling
Josh Allen – Overall ADP 90 QB 10
In his first two seasons, Josh Allen had a career completion percentage of 56.3%. Never underestimate the power of a rushing quarterback in fantasy football. In those same two seasons, Allen ran for a combined 1,141 yards and 17 touchdowns. Josh Allen finished last season as the 6th highest scoring quarterback in fantasy.
I expect some regression in 2020, but I do believe that he will remain a top scoring fantasy quarterback. The addition of Stefon Diggs to the Bills improves the passing game, and the recent addition of Zach Moss to pair with Devin Singletary improves the running game. I see Allen throwing for more yards and running less as a result of these additions. Round 7 is still early to grab your Quarterback, and if you are hell-bent on making that selection at this stage of your draft then I am certain that you can grab a higher ranked QB.
Devin Singletary – Overall ADP 48 RB23