Sully's Two Cents

The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”.  As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP (Average Draft Position) to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys

LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 12: Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys runs with the ball against John Johnson #43 of the Los Angeles Rams in the first half in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on January 12, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer NFC East

Two Players I Am Buying

Ezekiel Elliott – Overall ADP 3 RB3

With an ADP of 3 overall, you are paying premium and you better not screw up. Of the top-4 RBs, Ezekiel Elliott in my opinion is the perfect blend of safety and upside. Zeke has never finished outside of the top-12 RBs. In his four seasons, his finishes have been RB2, RB12, RB5, and, RB3.

He’s used as a true 3-down player, averaging 340 touches a season. His receiving volume regressed last season, but his rushing TDs hit positive regression. Zeke feels like the safest of the early fantasy running backs, and the fact that he has tested positive for and recovered from COVID-19 puts him in the running for me with the 1.01 selection. Dallas looks like a potent offense which should yield excellent results. I am buying Zeke right where I have him ranked at 3rd overall.

Michael Gallup – Overall ADP 74 WR33

As I prepare for the 2020 season, I am of the opinion that the Dallas offense is going to be one of the highest scoring units in the league. A key component of this high powered offense is Michael Gallup.

Michael Gallup had a breakout season a year ago. In 14 games played, he only had 7 less targets than Amari Cooper and only 82 less receiving yards. He was one of three WRs with 1,100+ receiving yards in 14 games played or less. Amari Cooper got paid and they drafted CeeDee Lamb, leading to some concern for Gallup’s volume. I have no concerns, and I am grabbing Gallup in the 6th round without question.

Two Players I Am Selling

Amari Cooper – Overall ADP 35 WR14

In 2019, Amari Cooper finished as WR10 with 245.6 PPR points, and his teammate Michael Gallup finished as WR22 with 212.7 points.  Cooper averaged 15.4 points per game and Gallup averaged 15.2.  Copper was targeted 119 times and Gallup 113.  Basically, we have a WR1 WR1A situation brewing in Dallas. 

Throughout his career, Cooper has been wildly inconsistent. He had four touchdowns in the first four games, but also had under 50 yards in two of them. The next five games Cooper racked up 562 yards and three more touchdowns. In the final seven games,

The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”.  As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP (Average Draft Position), to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2020 “Buy Sell Take the Flyer” Series with the AFC South.

Houston Texans

GLENDALE, AZ – OCTOBER 28: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals rushes the football against the San Francisco 49ers during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals defeated the 49ers 18-15. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) 2020 “Buy Sell Take the Flyer”

Two Players I Am Buying

David Johnson – Overall ADP 37 RB19

In 2016, David Johnson finished as the top fantasy scorer with 407.8 PPR fantasy points, 27.8 points clear of number two, Aaron Rodgers, and 82.4 points clear of the number two RB, Ezekiel Elliott. In 2017, DJ was limited to one game due to a wrist injury.

The 2018 Arizona Cardinals had the 32nd ranked offense – last in passing with 2,523 yards, and last in rushing with 1,342 yards, and Johnson in 16 games finished with 246.7 PPR points which was good enough for a RB9 finish.   In 2019, Johnson struggled with injury, and in parts of 13 games he disappointed with 141.5 PPR points and a RB37 finish.  Prior to his injury in Week 6, Johnson was RB5, averaging 20.2 points per game. Simply put, if he stays healthy he’s a top-12 type RB.

Brandin Cooks – Overall ADP 89 WR36

Brandin Cooks has 1,000+ receiving yards in 4 of 6 seasons played. During this offseason, he was traded to Houston, and at the age of 26, he finds himself on his fourth NFL team. Cooks comes with risk of injury, and that in my opinion, is factored into his ADP.

Prior to obtaining Cooks via trade, the Texans traded away DeAndre Hopkins and his 150+ targets. Cooks is certainly a candidate to lead the team in targets along with fellow health risk, Will Fuller. Playing with Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks, if healthy, is an amazing value in the 7th round.

Two Players I Am Selling

Will Fuller – Overall ADP 87 WR35

When he’s on the field, Will Fuller is a player I am buying, I love the talent. The reality is that he misses far too much time to be an asset we can depend on. We’ve seen the big play potential time and time again with Will Fuller, and his opportunity to be fantasy relevant is better than ever. DeAndre Hopkins and his 150+ targets are gone.

If you’re looking for a weekly upside play in the mid-to-late rounds of your drafts, Will Fuller may be your guy. For me, he is not. Fuller has missed 23 games (36%) over four seasons, making him a nice best ball league target and nothing else.

Deshaun Watson – Overall ADP 64 QB6

There are 6 QBs to “want” in fantasy football in 2020,

The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”.  As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2020 “Buy Sell Take the Flyer” Series with the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

TAMPA, FL – DECEMBER 30: Calvin Ridley #18 of the Atlanta Falcons runs after catching a pass during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 30, 2018 in Tampa, Florida. The Falcons won 34-32. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC South

Two Players I Am Buying

Calvin Ridley – Overall ADP 44 WR17

Calvin Ridley finished 2019 with 63 catches on 93 targets for 866 yards and 7 touchdowns. In his rookie season, Ridley finished with 64 catches on 92 targets for 821 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2018, he played in all 16 games and in 2019 he was limited to 13. 

The Dynasty community has long talked about the third-year breakout WR. Ridley has all the markings of being just that. He finished both 2018 and 2019 as WR22 in PPR scoring. 195.9 points in ’18 followed by 197 in ’19. Ridley plays in an offense that likes to throw the football. The Atlanta Falcons have ranked 5th and 1st in pass attempts in Ridley’s first two seasons, and that is a trend I would not expect to decrease very much in 2020. I have Ridley ranked 15th in my WR PPR rankings and I am happily taking him towards the back end of round 3 in my drafts.

Matt Ryan – Overall ADP 85 QB9

Matt Ryan has finished as a top-12 scoring Quarterback 6 times, including two top 2 finishes and a QB11 finish a year ago. Ryan enters 2020 in position to repeat his top 12 ways. He has two top weapons returning in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, 3rd year WR Russell Gage showed promise late in 2019, and the Falcons added RB Todd Gurley to the backfield.

Atlanta led the league in pass attempts in 2019 with 684 and were 5th in 2018 with 617. Expect the Falcons to continue to throw and throw often in 2020. As as a result, I have Matt Ryan ranked 7th in my QB rankings and a buy at his current ADP.

Two Players I Am Selling

Hayden Hurst – Overall ADP 106 TE11

The Falcons allowed Austin Hooper to walk via free agency and traded for Hayden Hurst. Hurst enters an offense with targets-a-plenty. Hooper was targeted 97 times in 2019, (in 13 games) and 88 times in 2018. Combined in those two seasons, Hooper totaled 146 catches, 1,447 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Falcons did nothing in the draft to address tight end, so you expect Hurst to be first in line to get most of the targets thrown to the tight ends in that offense.

I do not expect Hurst to be as productive as Hooper,

The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”.  As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the AFC North.

Baltimore Ravens

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 03: Running back Mark Ingram II #21 of the Baltimore Ravens rushes past linebacker Elandon Roberts #52 of the New England Patriots during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium on November 3, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Todd Olszewski/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC North

Two Players I Am Buying

Mark Ingram – Overall ADP 56 RB25

Mark Ingram surprised last season–his first in a Ravens uniform. He finished the season as RB11 with 242.5 PPR points. Ingram benefited from being in a backfield behind all-world QB Lamar Jackson. He leveraged 15 total touchdowns to return to the top-12 at RB for the first time since his 2017 RB6 season. Ingram scored a touchdown last season on every 15 touches. That TD pace seems impossible for Ingram to repeat, and naturally he will regress as a result.

Ingram will also have some increased competition for touches this season. The Ravens spent a 2nd round pick on J.K. Dobbins. I do believe that Ingram remains the top dog in Baltimore and that there is room for both Ingram and Dobbins to touch the football. I can not imagine the Ravens wanting Lamar Jackson running as often as he did a year ago, and the Ravens last season ran a league-high 16.9% out of their plays in 22 personnel (2 running backs, 2 tight ends, 1 wide receiver). Dobbins will have his day, but in redraft formats Mark Ingram remains the running back I target off the Baltimore Ravens.

Marquise Brown – Overall ADP 70 WR30

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was the first wide receiver selected in the 2019 NFL Draft. The Ravens run heavy offense hurts his overall ceiling, but in his rookie season he showed his boom potential on any given week finishing with 7 TDs in 14 games.

Brown suffered an ankle sprain in Week 5, and only four times did he play in more than 70% of snaps in a game. If he’s healthy, he’s the clear top WR target in this Ravens offense. His boom/bust combo of a 2019 season concerns me as does his injury history, but I do feel the Ravens go to the air more in 2020, and Hollywood will lead the way. This all adds up to Brown beating his ADP of WR30 in his sophomore season.

Two Players I Am Selling

Lamar Jackson Overall ADP 21 QB1

Lamar Jackson was tremendous last season, blowing away every other fantasy QB by nearly 100 points. His 9.0 TD-rate is going to decline considerably,

The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”.  As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the NFC North.

Chicago Bears

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 02: Tarik Cohen #29 of the Chicago Bears returns a punt during the first quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 02, 2018 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – NFC North

Two Players I Am Buying

Tarik Cohen – Overall ADP 87 RB35

Regression hit Tarik Cohen in a big, bad way in 2019. His touches dropped by just under two a game, and his touchdowns regressed from eight down to three. In addition to the decrease in touches was the decrease in productivity. He dropped to 3.3 YPC, and far more importantly his receiving plummeted from 10.2 yards per reception to 5.8. The 10.2 in 2019 wasn’t going to be repeated, but the near 50% drop in productivity was certainly more than expected.

Cohen still projects to be a nice addition to the offense and is a nice back to target in PPR. Finding a RB that has been targeted 195 times in the past two seasons in the 7th round is great value. I expect the Bears offense to be more productive as a whole in 2020. Chicago was 25th in passing yards in 2019 compared to 21st in 2018, and 29th in points scored compared to 9th in 2018. Cohen likely will not give you the RB11 season he did in 2018, but I do expect him to better the RB27 a year ago and his ADP of RB35.

Anthony Miller – Overall ADP 135 WR50

Anthony Miller has a ton of talent and a great amount of work ethic. Will can defeat skill, and when combined good things tend to happen. The problem Miller encountered last season was that he was slowed by both injury and a Mitch Trubisky problem. In 2020, if he remains healthy, year three has all the makings of a breakout season.

In his rookie season, while playing through a shoulder injury the entire year, Miller finished as WR60 with 7 touchdowns. In 2019, he struggled the majority of the season and finished as WR56, but it was the finish to his season that has me this optimistic. From Weeks 12-16, Miller was WR17 and averaging 15.6 PPR points a game. With (hopefully) improved quarterback play from Nick Foles, Miller is a complete steal at his ADP of WR54. The upside of Anthony Miller in an improved Chicago offense is impossible to pass up.

Two Players I Am Selling

Allen Robinson – Overall ADP 29 WR9

In 2019, Allen Robinson was once again an elite WR. Robinson finished the year as WR8 with 254.9 PPR points. His 154 targets and his 98 receptions were both career highs. His 1,147 yards and 7 touchdowns were second only to his 1,400 yard 14 touchdown 2015 season. Robinson will still just be 27 years old when the season starts. The Nick Foles / Mitch Trubisky combo at QB is not ideal,

The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”.  As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the AFC West.

Denver Broncos

DENVER, CO – DECEMBER 29: Quarterback Drew Lock #3 of the Denver Broncos throws a pass against the Oakland Raiders during the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High on December 29, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos defeated the Raiders 16-15. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West

Two Players I Am Buying

Drew Lock – Overall ADP 166 QB22

Drew Lock was my number two ranked rookie QB a year ago. Needless to say I am a believer. The future is now in Denver as Lock took the reins of the starting job over the last five weeks of the season. While there is some obvious growing room, he looked more than capable as a starter showing some chemistry with Courtland Sutton.

Entering 2020, the Broncos have added weapons for their 2nd year QB. Lock has some hype surrounding his fantasy outlook this year if free-agent signing Melvin Gordon, rookies Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler, as well as TE Noah Fant help him take a step forward. The biggest add this offseason to me is Pat Shurmur as the team’s Offensive Coordinator. Shurmur got production out of rookie Daniel Jones a year ago and recently led QBs Sam Bradford and Case Keenum to career best seasons. This could be a top-half offense if things break right, and with an ADP listing Lock as undrafted I will be buying all day long.

Jerry Jeudy – Overall ADP 112 WR43

The Broncos added Jerry Jeudy with the 15th selection in the recent NFL draft. Even with the talented Courtland Sutton on the roster, the Broncos couldn’t resist picking Jeudy. While I am concerned with the rookie class in general getting off to a slow start, Jeudy should see plenty of snaps right out of the gate.

Knowing Shurmur’s offense and the opportunity it provides multiple WRs, the vision of Sutton and Jeudy being Diggs and Thielen 2.0 is too tantalizing to pass up. In the ninth round, this is an easy buy for me.

Two Players I Am Selling

Courtland Sutton – Overall ADP 47 WR19

This annual exercise always paints me into a corner where I have to label a player I like a lot as a sell. That is exactly what is happening here in terms of Courtland Sutton.

In 2019, Sutton topped 1,100 yards on 124 targets and finished as WR19, matching his current ADP. With the maturation of TE Noah Fant and the additions of Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Melvin Gordon, Sutton should be be less of a focus in this offense. I see Sutton sliding back into the back of WR2 country this season, and as a result he is a reluctant sell.

Melvin Gordon – Overall ADP 37 RB19

In 2019, after an ill-advised holdout, Melvin Gordon had his worst statistical season since his rookie year. That didn’t stop his former division rival Broncos from offering Gordon a 2-year dea...

Buy Sell Take the Flyer NFC West

The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled; Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer.  Approaching the 2020 season, I am happy to bring you the third annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We kick off the 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – with the NFC West

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – OCTOBER 13: Quarterback Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals scrambles with the football during the NFL game against the Atlanta Falcons at State Farm Stadium on October 13, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals defeated the Falcons 34-33. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) Buy Sell Take the Flyer NFC West

Thank you for listening to 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC West

For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @RotoHeatSully and subscribe to the Sully’s 2 Cents Podcast as well as the RotoHeat YouTube Channel.

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 88 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host, Rob Sullivan. Today I am going to bring you Sully’s 2020 Bold Predictions.

I recently dropped my 8 Bold Predictions for 2020 article on our website over on Rotoheat, and today I am going to roll thru those and add a couple more spicy takes for you the loyal Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast listeners.

These takes are meant to be fun, the scenarios are a little out there–somewhat extreme and, in a word, bold.  Bold /bōld/ is defined as; (of a person, action, or idea) showing an ability to take risks; confident and courageous.

It may be that my boldest prediction for the 2020 Fantasy Football season is that there will indeed be a 2020 Fantasy Football season.  That in itself is rather boring, so without further ado, here are eight bold predictions for 2020.

Quarterback

Daniel Jones will be a top 5 QB in 2020

CINCINNATI, OHIO – AUGUST 22: Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants throws the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on August 22, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) Eight Bold Predictions for 2020

After the 2019 NFL draft, I was a card-carrying member of the “Daniel Jones was a waste of a draft pick” club. You may recall the G-men selected the Duke QB with the 6th overall selection, making him the second QB off the board after Arizona selected Kyler Murray first overall.  For the record, my #2 QB in 2019 was Drew Lock, but that is another story for another day.  When it comes to Daniel Jones, please allow me to turn in my card. 

Let us start with the good news.  In his 12 starts, Daniel Jones compiled a stat line of 284/459 for 3,027 yards and 24 touchdowns. The bad news is he averaged an interception a game and fumbled 13 times while losing 11 of them. 

In addition to the passing game, he ran for 279 yards and a TD in those 12 starts.  His 16-game pace line in 2019 was 384/608 for 4,032 yards, 32 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and 15 lost fumbles, with 372 rushing yards and 3 scores.  That stat line equals 282.48 fantasy points in a standard scoring 4 point per passing league.  Aaron Rodgers was QB10 last season with 282.38 points.

Here is where this gets fun for me. In 2019, Saquon Barkley missed 3 games and was a shell of his normal self until Week 17.  Sterling Shepard missed 6 games, Darius Slayton 2, Golden Tate 5, and Evan Engram 8.

The Giants offensive line ranked 17th in pass protection and gave up 43 sacks.  In the 2020 NFL draft they added Andrew Thomas.  He has quick feet with a good build and athleticism on the edge. Thomas is a well-developed pass protector who sustains his blocks and prevents a second effort from defenders.

With all his weapons, especially Saquon Barkley and an improved offensive line, Jones’ turnover rate will decline dramatically.  With all his weapons available, Jones will have 3 solid WRs, a top tier TE, and one of the top two running backs in football.  I have Jones ranked 13th currently, and as the 2020 season plays out, I plan on moving him up those rankings.

Josh Allen will finish outside the top 15 in 2020

In his first two seasons, Josh Allen has a career completion per...

Episode 87 Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request.

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome into Episode 87 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. 

Today’s episode I am going to touch on some players in the news, answer some mailbag questions.

Before I get into it I want to remind you all that over on the RotoHeat YouTube Channel we are streaming 4 nights a week.  We are covering IDP on Monday, Dynasty on Tuesday, Redraft on Wednesday, and Devy on Thursday.  Coming soon we will add DFS on Friday’s.  I have the pleasure of joining Rob Silvers and Bryce Frazier on the Inferno Podcast, our Redraft steam on Tuesday’s.  Be sure to head over to YouTube and subscribe and click the notification bell so that you do not miss out on any of our great content.

I am currently 8 picks into my first venture into the world-famous Scott Fish Bowl.  I will say that the draft is more stressful than any other draft I have done. When you are trying to win a draft full of the industry’s top analysts, some celebrities and a bunch of hardcore degenerate fantasy managers that has a total of 1440 teams well it can be a little intimidating.  The fact that RotoHeat’s Rick Butts and Brad Menendez are also in the league adds a little spice as it would be nice to have bragging rights.

My team after 8 rounds consists of

I am picking out of the 11 hole and I started with Dak Prescott at 1.11 and followed it up with Kyler Murray at 2.02.  The league has some unique scoring settings and with the ability to start two QB’s each week I wanted to be set up at the position.

I followed the selection Zach Ertz at 3.11 even though I have been telling you all not to draft Zach Ertz and to wait on TE.  The league is TE premium with an additional .5 points per reception and first down.  This is a pick I wish I could have back, but it is what it is. 

At 4.02 I selected Chris Godwin and all of a sudden, I am in a full blown zero RB type of situation.  This is basically the reason I am sharing this draft with you all.  Zero RB is not recommended. 

As a result of the pressure to grab some friggin running backs, I went with Chris Carson at 5.11, David Johnson at 6.02 and James White at 7.11.  The backs all have upside, but they also have a floor that scares the hell out of me. 

My 8th pick was Michael Gallup, felt I needed to jump back to WR with a starting requirement of 3, and I like the idea of pairing Gallup with Dak Prescott. 

I have a long way to go as there are 22 rounds.  I know that nobody really cares what my Fish Bowl roster looks like, but I can tell you.  Running Backs fly off the board.  I strongly recommend a RB/RB start to your 1 QB league drafts this season, when you get into round 3 the backs that remain don’t match the value of round three and ...

2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued and Undervalued Players

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.  I am your host Rob Sullivan.

The podcast is a day late and I do apologize, life has been crazy this week to say the least.  I do have to start off today by wishing all my friends and listeners in the United States a very Happy 4th of July.  Stay safe and have fun.

Well its been quite a fun week here at RotoHeat.  In addition to our normal cutting-edge sports journalism our 4 night a week soon to be 5 night a week live streams over on our YouTube channel has debuted. 

Monday Nights the IDP Heat Seekers, followed on Tuesday Nights with the Heat Seekers Dynasty stream, Wednesday Nights Fantasy Inferno a Redraft stream, and Thursday Nights it’s the Devy Hour.  Coming in July on Friday nights we will have DFS content.  All streams start at 9:30 EST over on YouTube.

I have the pleasure of sitting in on the Fantasy Inferno, with our host Rob Silvers, as well as Bryce Frazier.  This past week we discussed Change of Scenery Players and it was a lot of fun.  I hope you give it a watch and subscribe so that you don’t miss any future editions of the Fantasy Inferno or any of the other great shows the team is putting together.

Today I want to talk about value in your redraft leagues, basically give you a player from each skill position that I feel is overvalued as well as undervalued at their current ADP. 

Overvalued and Undervalued.  These are based off players current Average Draft Position over at Fantasy Pros.  My take on the value of the player should not be confused with my desire to own the player.  If I deem a player overvalued, I do not hate them, I dislike where I need to draft him to own him, same thing goes for undervalued. 

Quarterback

Overvalued

Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens ADP Overall 21 QB1

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – AUGUST 15: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens throws the ball in the first half of a preseason game against the Green Bay Packers at M&T Bank Stadium on August 15, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Todd Olszewski/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued and Undervalued Players

Lamar Jackson was tremendous last season, blowing away every other fantasy QB by nearly 100 points. His 9.0 TD-rate is going to decline considerably, as has been the case for every other QB in NFL history to achieve such a mark. In addition, his rushing totals will decrease as well. With all that said, he will still be the a top 3 quarterback, at worst, in 2020 if healthy.

Having the man that led fantasy in scoring start off the 2020 Overvalued and Undervalued Players as overvalued may seem odd and I get that, but don’t shut this episode off hear me out. As I stated earlier this take should not be interpreted as a dislike of Lamar Jackson, as it’s quite the opposite–I love Lamar Jackson.

What I dislike is his ADP. The reality is you should not be taking a QB this high in your drafts regardless of who it is; the opportunity cost is too high. Grab a Running Back or Wide Receiver in round two, as there is plenty of time to grab a viable starting QB in the later rounds.

Undervalued