It was the sudden declines in footy audiences that did it for Suncorp Executive Manager of Media, Greg Kearney and OMD Chief Media Partnerships Officer, Marelle Salib. They knew that diehard sports fans don’t just ditch their teams overnight. But Kearney and Salib had years’ worth of market mix model (MMM) data that countered the volatile numbers coming from OzTAM back in 2023.

Those zero ratings, or “doughnuts” per Foxtel Media boss Mark Frain, preceded the split between the pay TV provider and the free-to-air TV networks on measurement, with Foxtel Media breaking away to use Kantar to validate its own return path data from a million subscribers.

Digging deeper showed that the ratings were way off for a slew of shows, “and clients were asking what was going on”, per Salib. No measurement system can ever be 100 per cent perfect all of the time, she acknowledges, but OMD has been running Kantar and its own client MMM data in parallel: “What we're seeing is the performance of things like sports sponsorships are remaining stable, and that is a really good indicator of performance … The Kantar data set appears to be really robust,” says Salib.

While Suncorp has a sophisticated approach to media investment, Kearney says reach remains a “crucial” input.

“We need to know where the audience is, and it's changing so rapidly. If you don't know that, you're significantly behind the eight ball. And secondly, audience numbers are a huge part of the cost equation,” he says.

“If you don't get that right, the inputs into your market mix models are going to be off … and you're never going to have a good view on your business outcomes.”

Foxtel’s Frain acknowledges the move from one measurement system to another is “pretty challenging” for the industry, but says breaking away and enabling Foxtel Media to plug its pipes into multiple data sources and market mix models “is the best thing we have ever done”. Plus, it gets the pay TV provider closer to closing the loop on how media investment actually delivers a business result. Now Frain’s aiming to plug in more data sources.

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