Thank you @elifland for reviewing this post. He and AI Futures are planning to publish updates to the AI 2027 Timeline Forecast soon.

AI 2027 (also launched in this LW post) forecasts an R&D-based AI takeoff starting with the development of Superhuman Coders[1] within a frontier lab.

FutureSearch co-authored the AI 2027 Timeline Forecast. We thought the other authors’ forecasts were excellently done, and as the piece says:

All model-based forecasts have 2027 as one of the most likely years that SC [Superhuman Coders] being developed, which is when an SC arrives in the AI 2027 scenario.

Indeed. But overall, FutureSearch (two full-time forecasters, two contract forecasters, and this author, Dan Schwarz) think superhuman coding will arrive later — median 2033 — than the other authors (hereon "AI Futures"): median 2028 from Nikola Jurkovic, and median 2030 from Eli Lifland[2].

Here, we briefly explain how our views diverge on [...]

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Outline:

(01:43) The Forecast

(03:05) The Path to Superhuman Coding

(04:49) Why an RE-Bench-Saturating AI might be very far from a Production Superhuman Coder

(05:54) Handling Engineering Complexity

(06:38) Working Without Feedback Loops

(07:41) Achieving Cost and Speed

(08:26) Other Gaps Between RE-Bench and Real World Frontier Lab Coding

(09:07) Outside-The-Model Considerations

(10:25) Updating Over Time

The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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