Chris Murray, director of IHME, joined our podcast once again, at this major moment of reset of expectations – of our ability to control the pandemic, of policy decisions, data gaps, political attitudes and behavior, hitting the wall of hesitancy and refusal to vaccinate, and public confusion. We cover the full gamut: the forecast for the fall surge, missteps on masking, the need for greater transparency in data, and how much room exists to overcome resistance to vaccines. 

Chris Murray is the Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and Chair and Professor, Department of Health Metrics Sciences, at the University of Washington in Seattle.

Dr. Birx, former Response Coordinator during the Trump administration of the White House Covid-19 Task Force, served also as the Global AIDS Coordinator and Special Representative for Global Health Diplomacy between April 2014 and January 2021. She joined us for an extended conversation on the accelerating changes surrounding us – the Delta variant surge, new discoveries regarding breakthrough infections among the vaccinated, continued vaccine hesitancy, and refusal that has prompted the declaration of “a pandemic of the unvaccinated.” As we speak, newly revised policies on masks and vaccinations are getting unveiled. What to make of this new phase, and where is it heading? We’ll need far higher testing and genomic sequencing, intensified local engagement, a big push on accelerating therapies, and thinking ahead on what the future mix of vaccines will look like. 

Dr. Deborah Birx is a Senior Fellow at the George W. Bush Presidential Center

Gary Edson, President and founder of The Covid Collaborative, has for decades been a highly visible and impactful leader across government, business, and the non-profit worlds. While serving in senior White House positions in President George W. Bush’s administration, he played a key role in the design and launch of the President’s Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and in the management of G-7 and other summits. He joins us to explore why the international response to Covid-19 has been so radically different from the response two decades ago to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. He also walks us through the genesis of the Covid Collaborative, how it operates, its impressive achievements in devising plans of action embraced by governors whose constituents account for one-third of Americans, and its rapid, innovative work on testing, masks, vaccine hesitancy, and school reopening. More recently, the Collaborative has focused (with CSIS) on the stark global split between vaccine ‘haves’ versus ‘have nots,’ at the very moment when two Americas have appeared, the vaccinated and unvaccinated. What gives him hope? “America rises to the occasion.”

Gary Edson is the President of The Covid Collaborative.

We’re blessed to sit down with Dr. Charity Dean, the central figure of Michael Lewis’ pandemic book, The Premonition, former Assistant Director of the California Department of Public Health in 2020, and co-founder of The Public Health Company. Her premonition on her birthday in December 2019 — a “giant blue tsunami wave” engulfing the US - prompted her to track what was happening in China “obsessively.” She became part of the executive team that devised Governor Newson’s operational pandemic plan. She also joined in 2020 the Red Dawn group, “a tactical warfare group” of “Wolverines” and other pandemic experts advising state governors as well as the Trump administration. She founded PHC in the spring of this year to create new software platforms for the private sector to manage the risks of future pandemics. Listen to learn more.

Dr. Charity Dean, MD, MPH&TM, is co-founder and CEO of The Public Health Company.

Washington Post ace reporters Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta take us inside their newly released blockbuster, "Nightmare Scenario: Inside the Trump Administration's Response to the Pandemic That Changed History." A gripping, provocative tour d’horizon. Give a listen.

Steve Morrison, who lives in the shadow of the Capitol, brought together Liz Lynch, a freelance professional photographer who attended the January 6 rally at the ellipse and both sides of the Capitol during the insurrection, and Alex Lazar, an academic pathologist, the University of Texas/MD Anderson, who on January 6 was working inside the Capitol. Listen in to hear their three respective angles on what transpired: the most poignant, vivid, revealing moments and how to digest the gravity and meaning of the siege and its aftermath. 

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), the senior House appropriator and a respected national leader on health security at home and abroad, has served on the CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security since 2018. In this wide-ranging conversation, he reflects on the 100th anniversary of the Tulsa massacre of the Black Greenwood community; the “successful but mixed bag” of the rollout of vaccines in America; the impressive management by the Native American community of the vaccine challenges; and the continued need for bipartisan support of US health security leadership abroad. China’s behavior on the origin of the virus looks suspicious, like a “coverup.” Attacks on Dr. Tony Fauci are a “dangerous phenomenon.” Dr. Fauci was wrestling in his emails with an evolving crisis. To attack him is like going after American nuclear scientists in the 1950s. Support for CEPI is “money well spent,” the “most modest of insurance.”

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) is in his tenth term representing the 4th District of Oklahoma.

Krishna Udayakumar explains how he systematically assembled data to make sense of the fast-moving global marketplace in vaccines, amid the pandemic, building on prior trust with private and public entities, and positioning the Duke Global Health Innovation Center as the go-to source. Starting in late 2020, that meant painting the picture of worsening inequities that reflected the overwhelming power advantages of wealthy states and powerhouse vaccine developers, rhetorical commitments to solidarity notwithstanding. We are now rapidly approaching a pivot point, as supply escalates later this year: estimated western production of 7 billion doses in 2021, 14 billion in 2022. The big worry looking ahead? Lack of delivery capacity and financing in low and lower-middle-income countries, which may, as a result, become “mired” in 20-40% coverage. The G7 summit was a “mixed bag, ” leaving us “nowhere near the end of the story.” The big question 12-18 months out: will it be a western consortium that vaccinates most of the low and lower-middle-income countries? Or will it be the world’s vaccine “workhorse,” China? Or some combination?

Philip Zelikow, former executive director of the 9/11 Commission, has launched an ambitious fast-moving planning effort to scope what a commission on the pandemic in America would examine, how it would be organized, what value it would deliver, how it would navigate our treacherous political terrain, why it needs to move fast to nail down what happened. Listen in to learn more. 

Philip Zelikow is an American attorney, diplomat, academic, and author. He is a professor of history at the University of Virginia.

This week the CSIS Schieffer Series hosted a high-energy exchange on “The Next Phase Of Covid-19.” Steve and Andrew were joined by Jeremy Konyndyk, executive director of USAID’s Covid-19 Task Force, who delivered a stirring keynote address outlining USAID’s vision for addressing the burgeoning pandemic crisis while simultaneously investing in long-term health security preparedness in acutely vulnerable low-income countries. A roundtable followed on the historic legacy of US presidential leadership amid global health crises -- and the lessons for the escalating urgent demands unfolding in South Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere. Steve, Andrew, and Jeremy were joined by Julie Gerberding, co-chair of the CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security and executive vice president and chief patient officer of Merck; and Gary Edson, president of the COVID Collaborative and former White House official under President George W. Bush who played a pivotal role in launching PEPFAR and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC).