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Our host, Tom Schopflocher, is joined by U.S. RMBS Sector Lead Jeremy Schneider discuss our 2023 U.S. residential mortgage and housing outlook. With the U.S. housing and mortgage market slowdowns expected to continue in 2023, we dig into some historical perspectives that are comparable to our current economic situation for clues on how home prices may behave this year at the national and regional levels. We also discuss our issuance forecasts by subsector, our view of collateral performance, and our views on what support for investment properties might look like in the coming year, among other credit themes.

Related Articles: 2023 U.S. Residential Mortgage And Housing Outlook: Navigaing A Softening Market

Our hosts Tom Schopflocher and James Manzi get together to discuss our 2023 global structured finance outlook. Global structured finance issuance fell about 29% in 2022, and the declines were generally uniform in the largest global markets as high inflation, volatile interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty kept issuers on the sidelines. We expect these conditions to continue to hamper issuance. Our 2023 global issuance forecast is down about 7% year-over-year.

Related Articles:

• Global Structured Finance 2023 Outlook
• 2023 Residential Mortgage And Housing Outlook: Navigating A Softening Market
• European Structured Finance Outlook 2023: Close To The Edge
• China Structured Finance Outlook 2023: Issuance Likely To Slowly Stir
• 2023 Structured Finance Outlook: Australia And New Zealand

Expanding on our covered bond market coverage, Casper Andersen joins us to provide some insights into the Danish and German markets, which are the largest and second-largest in Europe, respectively. We give an overview of each market's adopted legal frameworks, key characteristics, and collateral securing their covered pools. We also discuss how inflation and mortgage markets affect these covered bond markets.

We're joined by Structured Finance analyst Christine Dalton, who gives her insights into the overall U.S. whole business securitization (WBS) sector, and by Corporates analyst Sarah Wyeth, who goes in depth on quick-service restaurants (which make up approximately 75% of our outstanding rated WBS transactions). We discuss some notable trends and potential credit events that we're monitoring in the WBS sector currently and for the upcoming year.

Related Articles: U.S. Corporate Securitization Newsletter December 2022

We're joined by our CLO team members Stephen Anderberg, Catherine Rautenkranz, William Sweatt, and Jeffrey Burton to discuss the evolving nature of U.S. CLO document provisions. A number of the recent developments in indenture provisions are geared towards increasing CLO manager flexibility, while others are responses to market and regulatory changes. We do a deep dive on these key changes and how they could potentially affect noteholders.

Related Articles: Par Wars: U.S. CLO Document Provisions Evolve To Provide Managers More Flexibility

We're joined by nontraditional ABS Analysts Deborah Newman and Rajesh Subramanian, as well Kapil Jain from Structured Finance Methodologies, who discuss our request for comment (RFC) for proposed updates to our global aircraft ABS criteria. We review some of the proposed changes, the implications in terms of ratings impact, and the next steps in the process.

Related Article: Request For Comment - Global Aircraft ABS: Methodology And Assumptions

In this week's episode of Take Notes, hosts Tom Schopflocher and Jim Manzi discuss their recently published chartbook: U.S. Structured Finance Snapshot: The Health Of U.S. Consumers. Topics include U.S. macroeconomic conditions, consumer ABS, housing/RMBS, and non-agency multifamily CMBS, and how the trends in asset classes reflect the health of U.S. consumers.

Related Article: U.S. Structured Finance Snapshot: The Health Of U.S. Consumers

Following the implementation of the EU Covered Bond Directive, analysts Casper Andersen and Ana Galdo join us this week to discuss the journey European covered bonds have been on to harmonize. We go over some key elements of the legislation, recap the harmonization timeline so far, and discuss what the directive means for covered bonds going forward.

Related Articles:

• European Covered Bonds Reach Harmonization Milestone As The Journey Continues, July 12, 2022
• Spanish Covered Bonds: Harmonization Achieved Through Royal Decree Law, July 13, 2022

With the European commercial real estate market facing asset price inflation risks, analyst Mathias Herzog joins us this week to discuss the region's CMBS performance. We discuss key European market trends and how they impact our ratings, noting that generally, ratings will be lower on new transactions with the same leverage as measured by the underlying assets' market value. For existing ratings, there will be no change from these developments alone. We also touch on our outlooks for certain European CMBS subsectors.

Related Article: Asset Price Risks: How Safe Is European CMBS Performance In The Face Of Rising Real Estate Values?

Credit analyst Erin Kitson joins us this week to discuss the Australian RMBS sector's likely resilience to rising interest rates in the country due to inflationary pressures. We do deep dives on a scenario analysis we performed to explore borrower sensitivity to rising interest rates, the fixed-rate phenomenon in the sector, property prices, unemployment, geographic diversity, and ratings performance.

Related Article: Monetary Tightening To Test Australian RMBS