In this Institute of Economic Affairs podcast, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Dr Christopher Snowdon speaks with Rohan Pike, a former Australian Federal Police officer and ex-Australian Border Force official who spent his final years in public service working on illicit tobacco. The conversation looks at the Laffer Curve as a real world example, using Australia’s tobacco duty, where revenue has fallen from $16 billion to $4 billion even as tax rates climbed. They discuss how taxation pushed past the point where higher rates raise less money, and what that means for smokers, the public purse and crime.

Pike sets out how the illicit market has grown to around 80% of all tobacco sold in Australia, with the illicit vape market above 95%. He explains how tax of roughly $1.53 per cigarette, about £17 a packet before sales tax, opened a gap that organised crime moved to fill, with black market packets selling for a fraction of the legal price. The discussion covers the violence that has followed, including murders and hundreds of fire bombings, the rise of a multi-billion dollar criminal syndicate, and why enforcement at the border can only ever stop a small share of what comes through.

The second half turns to Britain. Snowdon and Pike argue that the UK is only a few years behind Australia, pointing to high tobacco duty, the tax escalator, the planned vape tax and official figures that they say understate the size of the illicit trade. Pike argues that the answer is not tougher enforcement alone but lower excise, consistent enforcement and an honest approach to harm reduction, contrasting Australia’s stance on vaping with the position taken in the UK and New Zealand. He closes with a warning for the Treasury and for ministers that the same path leads to the same result.

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