What does the future hold for the Middle East — and the world — in 2026?

In this special episode of Conflicted, Thomas instructs Aimen to peer into his crystal ball and offer his forecasts for the year to come.

In this episode, Aimen and Thomas discuss:

How professional geopolitical analysts make forecasts

The impossibility of foreseeing Black Swan events

Why an end to the war in Ukraine could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics

The likelihood of a U.S. war against the Houthis in Yemen

Renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

The strategic importance of the Gulf states

Iran’s nuclear programme, proxy network, and the risk of renewed confrontation

Add your predictions to your 2026 Forecast Card here: https://forms.gle/sMCbRFmFTBdcfEDd8 

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews.

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