The AFIRE Podcast

(Featuring Dave Bragg, Co-Head, Strategic Research, Green Street)

Uncertainty surrounding remote work and politics suggest a wide range of potential outcomes for big cities, which may upend the long-running megatrend toward urbanization.

https://www.afire.org/podcast/herdcommunitycast/

The rise or fall of a city is tough to foresee and impossible to forecast with precision, but history suggests that investors keep an open mind about the future. This is particularly the case today as work-from-home (WFH), fiscal health, and politics may portend de-urbanization, which would carry implications for both gateway and Sun Belt markets, as well as urban/suburban dynamics within metro areas.

Post-COVID Flexible WFH policies will allow some employees to relocate. The WFH revelation has also increased comfort in operating a workforce distributed across multiple offices. The spread between Sun Belt and gateway market office-using job growth spiked last year to its highest level in two decades. The biggest winners are places with high WFH utilization rates, based on our metric comparing the pre-COVID propensity to work remotely and an employee’s ability to do so.

On this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, David Bragg discusses the future of commercial real estate markets as migration continues nationwide. As Sun Belt cities and suburbs benefit from the movement, commercial real estate prices are likely to improve dramatically. This podcast is based on the article "Herd Community" from Summit Journal (Summer 2021).

(Featuring Jonathan Ellenzweig, Chief Investment Officer, Tricon Residential)

Over the past two decades, the single-family rental industry has evolved into an institutional-caliber asset class—so where is the sector going next?

https://www.afire.org/podcast/institutionalizingsfrcast/

Over the past decade, the US single-family rental (“SFR”) industry has matured from a largely mom-and-pop cottage business to a professionally managed, institutional-caliber asset class that fills a pronounced gap in the US housing continuum. Before the GFC there were always SFR homes; however, these were typically owned by individuals who were often more focused on near-term cash flow rather than customer service. In fact, in 2005 there were approximately 13 million occupied SFR homes, or 34% of the entire rental housing stock in the US.

The GFC served as a catalyst for the institutionalization of the industry, as large and newly formed technology-enabled owner/operators were able to acquire neglected homes, renovate them, and rent them to families looking for quality rental housing. In many instances, these operators transformed what may have been the worst home on the street into the best. This served to benefit both local homeowners and renters, and served as the genesis of today’s SFR industry.

On this episode of the AFIRE podcast, Jonathan Ellenzweig explains why the SFR industry remains very small and concentrated among a handful of operators – in fact, less than 2% of the country’s approximately 16 million SFR homes are owned by institutional owners.

This podcast is based on the article "Institutionalizing Single-Family" from Summit Journal (Summer 2021).

(Featuring Ernest Lee, Managing Director, Americas, citizenM Hotels)

As we come out of the pandemic to a new economy, it seems likely that the creator economy will continue to grow. This will have a major impact on the multifamily sector.

https://www.afire.org/podcast/multifamilycast/

The current way most technology platforms monetize is based on attention at scale. More eyeballs and clicks results in more advertising. This also applies to other media— whether they are tech platforms, record labels, or newspapers— and this construct is almost always disproportionately better for those that control the tracks, not the trains.

But in an era where people increasingly follow people, not companies, the host platform needs to evolve – and the real estate world needs to take notice of how these trends will shift the relationships tenants will have with cities and buildings.

On this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, Ernest Lee discusses how the multifamily real estate sector will face big changes as the creator economy continues to grow. His advice can help owners avoid technology disrupting the traditional leasing market.

This podcast is based on the article "Influencing Multifamily" from Summit Journal (Summer 2021).

(Featuring Lauren Krause, Director of Environment, Social, and Governance, Grosvenor Americas and Brian Biggs, CFA, Research Director, Grosvenor Americas)

Though “impact investing” is no longer totally distinct from investing in general, investors still have a lot of work to do to fulfill the social and governance aspects of ESG expectations.

https://www.afire.org/podcast/peoplefirstcast/

Gone are the days when investors considered “impact investing” separate from just “investing.” In virtually every industry, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) matters have moved from a peripheral concern to a core business pillar. Real estate is no exception.

Within real estate, the conversation around the environmental component of ESG is quite advanced—and with good reason, as real estate is one of the largest domestic sources of greenhouse gas emissions and embodied carbon in the developed world. The “E” of ESG also has well-defined assessment metrics, key milestones for decarbonizing, and a robust certification marketplace for verifying a building’s green credentials.

On this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, Lauren Krause, Director of Environment, Social, and Governance, Grosvenor Americas and Brian Biggs, CFA, Research Director, Grosvenor Americas, go deeper to explain the social and governance sections of ESG. Science has been very clear on environmental changes necessary, but it can be much more difficult to identify steps to take to fulfill the rest of ESG's goals.

(Featuring Paula Campbell Roberts, Managing Director, Global Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk and Real Estate Americas, KKR)

During times of constant change—especially over the past several months—many of us are having our core ideas or investment theses constantly challenged or contradicted, partly because we're working with limited information. What's the data we should track to understand what happens next?

https://www.afire.org/podcast/changecast/

On any given day over the past several months, we might find ourselves thinking that the office is dead, or that the future is exurban, or that inflation will worsen. And the next day, we find ourselves convinced that the opposite is true.

For those in commercial real estate who let data guide our thinking, the pandemic has erased old precedents and trends, and shaken the foundations of long-term strategic thinking. How is recovery happening on a nationwide level? Are cities losing their economic supremacy? What are the implications of an ongoing pandemic on migration and consumer habits?

On this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, Paula Campbell Roberts, Managing Director, Global Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk and Real Estate Americas for KKR, shares her insights on economic recovery, urban population shifts, and real estate trends—including how investors and decision-makers can look past the headlines and towards the fundamentals that matter, especially during times of prolonged uncertainty.

https://www.afire.org/podcast/londoncallingcast/

With Brexit and pandemic resolutions coming into focus, pricing disparities could dissipate based on improved cross-border liquidity and cap rate compression in the London office market.

Because the global real estate industry is so interconnected, what happens in one part of the world affects what happens everywhere. The UK’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) created financial uncertainty that permeated into commercial real estate capital markets, particularly London’s office market.

London, historically a top destination for foreign capital, saw a decline in liquidity as investors fretted over the economic implications of the vote. Cross-border liquidity was further impaired by the COVID-19 pandemic and its ensuing travel restrictions.

On this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, Christopher Muoio examines why cross-border liquidity has eroded, leading to higher cap rates than those of the Great Financial Crisis. As Brexit and pandemic resolutions come into focus, this divergence could dissipate.

https://www.afire.org/podcast/risingpressurecast/

The increasing burden of state and local taxes required to face the mounting level of unfunded pension liabilities and other committed liabilities could drive widening differentials in local business and living costs, alter regional growth patterns and thereby affect CRE demand.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy and local tax collections is exacerbating this pre-existing issue.

The latest joint report from the Praedium Group and SitusAMC, published earlier this year in Summit Journal, looks at rising fiscal pressures on state and local governments, including large-scale changes accelerated by the pandemic.

Throughout the stages of the past economic cycle, Praedium and SitusAMC Insights have published a series of joint reports analyzing the fiscal pressures on state governments and how the resulting responses to those fiscal pressures may affect demographic patterns, economic growth trajectories and commercial real estate demand.

On this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, report authors Russell Appel, Founding Principal of The Praedium Group, and Peter Muoio, Ph.D., Senior Director for SitusAMC Insights, discuss how this research has evolved, and what it means for the future of commercial real estate investments.

(Featuring Martha Peyton, Managing Director, Head of Global Applied Research, Aegon Asset Management)

For commercial real estate investors, inflation fears are real—but are they rational?

https://www.afire.org/podcast/revisitinginflationcast/

Investors cite inflation hedging power as one of the primary attractions of property investments. This characteristic has been of limited use in recent years given the very low pace of inflation in the US and throughout most developed global markets, leaving other factors to drive the investment allure of real estate. Currently, inflation fears are emerging and raising concerns regarding potential negative effects on discount rates used to value portfolio properties, as well as potential positive effects on property cash flows.

However, according to Martha Peyton of Aegon Asset Management, inflation fears are potentially overblown, based on current macro-economic conditions. And, expectations of problematic inflation may actually have a negative impact on commercial property dynamics if they become pervasive.

Listen now on your favorite podcast service (Apple, Google, Spotify) for the full episode.

https://www.afire.org/podcast/michaelbirkincast/

After everything we have been through over the past eighteen months, the way we communicate with clients, investors, tenants, and friends has undergone dramatic change—with new expectations already hard-wired into our social interactions.

So what do these changes mean for the future of marketing, relationship development, and community interaction in commercial real estate?

To answer this question, this two-part episode of the AFIRE Podcast welcomes influential global marketing executive Michael Birkin, CEO of kyu, to consider the future of communication within and beyond the global commercial real estate industry.

While technology has significantly altered how we do everything from media consumption decisions to business marketing strategy, it has also changed our brain chemistry itself. The degree to which leaders can understand this evolution will determine success into the next few decades—especially as technology evolves apace.

Truth matters—now, more than ever.

Listen now on your favorite podcast service (Apple, Google, Spotify) for the full episode.

(Featuring Michael Birkin, CEO, kyu)

After everything we have been through over the past eighteen months, the way we communicate with clients, investors, tenants, and friends has undergone dramatic change—with new expectations already hard-wired into our social interactions.

https://www.afire.org/podcast/michaelbirkincast/

So what do these changes mean for the future of marketing, relationship development, and community interaction in commercial real estate?

To answer this question, this two-part episode of the AFIRE Podcast welcomes influential global marketing executive Michael Birkin, CEO of kyu, to consider the future of communication within and beyond the global commercial real estate industry.

While technology has significantly altered how we do everything from media consumption decisions to business marketing strategy, it has also changed our brain chemistry itself. The degree to which leaders can understand this evolution will determine success into the next few decades—especially as technology evolves apace.

Truth matters—now, more than ever.

Listen now on your favorite podcast service (Apple, Google, Spotify) for the full episode.