As humanity gets closer to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a new geopolitical strategy is gaining traction in US and allied circles, in the NatSec, AI safety and tech communities. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and RAND Corporation call it the “entente”, while others privately refer to it as “hegemony" or “crush China”. I will argue that, irrespective of one's ethical or geopolitical preferences, it is fundamentally flawed and against US national security interests.

If the US fights China in an AGI race, the only winners will be machines

The entente strategy

Amodei articulates key elements of this strategy as follows:

"a coalition of democracies seeks to gain a clear advantage (even just a temporary one) on powerful AI by securing its supply chain, scaling quickly, and blocking or delaying adversaries’ access to key resources like chips and semiconductor equipment. This coalition would on one hand use AI to achieve robust [...]

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Outline:

(00:51) The entente strategy

(02:22) Why it's a suicide race

(09:19) Loss-of-control

(11:32) A better strategy: tool AI

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