美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】

大选进入冲刺阶段，选举民调再次成为焦点。然而，过去几次选举中民调的频繁失准，让人不禁质疑：我们还能相信民调吗？在这期节目中，我们深入探讨了民调的方方面面，从民调的制作过程，到比较全国民调和摇摆州民调的可靠性。我们分析了近年来民调越来越不准的原因，探讨了2024年民调的新变化，并且分析了内部民调的准确性。

当然，今年民调到底准不准，要到11月5日之后才能见分晓了。

美轮美换的网站上也推出了对最新民调、民调均值、选举预测的每日追踪，欢迎访问网站，并订阅成为免费或付费会员。 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:01:00 各位主播看民调的姿势

00:04:51 民调是怎么做出来的？

00:13:40 为什么美国还在用固定电话做民调？

00:17:48 为什么近年的民调会不准？

00:26:40 2024年民调做了什么调整？

00:32:58 为什么做民调这么难？

00:41:19 今年的民调会高估或低估特朗普吗？

00:44:48 摇摆州民调会更靠谱吗？

00:48:45 内部民调靠谱吗？

00:52:50 民主党和共和党对民调不同的反应

1:04:10 选举预测模型靠谱吗？

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者

主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。

【 What We Talked About】

With the election in its final stretch, polls are once again in the spotlight. But after a string of high-profile misses in recent elections, many are asking: can we still trust the polls? In this episode, we dive deep into the world of political polling, examining everything from how polls are conducted to the reliability of national vs. swing state polls. We explore why polls have become less accurate in recent years, what changes pollsters are making for 2024, and whether internal campaign polls offer any better insight.

Of course, the true test of this year's polls won't come until after Election Day on November 5th. Join us for a critical look at the state of political polling in America today.

The American Roulette website has launched daily tracking of the latest polls, poll averages, and election predictions. Visit our site and consider becoming a free or paid subscriber for access to these insights. https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:01:00 The hosts' approach to interpreting polls

00:04:51 The mechanics of polling: How are they conducted?

00:13:40 Landlines in modern polling: Why do they persist?

00:17:48 Unpacking recent poll inaccuracies

00:26:40 Polling in 2024: Key adjustments and changes

00:32:58 The challenges of accurate polling

00:41:19 Trump and the polls: Potential for over or underestimation?

00:44:48 Swing state polls: A more reliable indicator?

00:48:45 Internal polls: Trustworthy or misleading?

00:52:50 Partisan responses to polling: Democrats vs. Republicans

1:04:10 Election prediction models: How reliable are they?

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.

【拓展链接】

https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/

https://www.nytimes.com/by/nate-cohn

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

2024 年美国大选的最后一场辩论（如果特朗普之后不变卦的话），也是副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹和 J.D. 万斯的唯一一场辩论，美国东部时间 10 月 1 日晚 9 点在 CBS 的纽约市演播室举行。

本期播客中，我们回顾了共和党副总统候选人J.D.万斯与民主党副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹之间的辩论。我们从辩论的总体观感出发，探讨公众反应与舆论评价之间的差异，并审视这场辩论在多大程度上聚焦于实质性的政策讨论。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:46 辩论总体观感

06:30 舆论和民众对辩论观感的差异

13:09 这是一场关注政策的辩论吗

17:21 这是万斯成为MAGA接班人的里程碑之战吗？

20:05 特朗普拯救了奥巴马医保？

24:28 极化环境下两党如何争取摇摆选民

28:03 万斯在堕胎问题上的回答

32:03 特朗普的民粹主义是如何征服共和党的

34:23 万斯的形象为何如此负面

38:33 两位副总统候选人辩论中的亮点

41:12 大选最后冲刺阶段的展望

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者

主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。

【 What We Talked About】

The final debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle (barring any last-minute changes from Trump) took place on October 1st at 9 PM Eastern Time. Held in CBS's New York City studio, this marked the sole face-off between vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and J.D. Vance.

In this episode, we dissected the debate between Republican VP nominee J.D. Vance and his Democratic counterpart, Tim Walz. We start by sharing our overall impressions of the event, then delve into the disparity between public reaction and media commentary. A key focus of our discussion is how much the candidates engaged in substantive policy debate versus political rhetoric.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:46 Overall impressions of the debate

06:30 Gap between public reaction and media narrative of the debate

13:09 Was this truly a policy-focused debate?

17:21 Is this Vance's defining moment as a potential MAGA heir?

20:05 Did Trump inadvertently save the Obamacare?

24:28 Courting swing voters in a polarized political landscape

28:03 Vance's stance on the abortion issue

32:03 How Trump's populism reshaped the GOP

34:23 Unpacking Vance's negative public image

38:33 Key moments from both VP candidates during the debate

41:12 Final stretch: What to expect as Election Day approaches

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

近年来，硅谷这个传统的民主党堡垒正悄然发生变化。科技界的“右转”现象，以及马斯克和Marc Andreessen等大佬对特朗普的公开支持，似乎预示着一场政治地震。这是否反映了科技界对主流社会长期“敌意”的反弹？

在这期节目里，我们探讨了硅谷在即将到来的大选中的政治取向，AI革命下科技界政治光谱的变迁，以及源自科技圈的新兴政治话语及其在网络上的传播。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

03:25 AI的浪潮引发政治语言的变革

08:17 回顾这几个月最近硅谷发生的“大佬右转，支持川普”的情况

13:27 Marc Andreessen和a16z对特朗普的公开支持，以及他的《科技乐观主义宣言》背后说了什么

21:00 华盛顿和硅谷之间撕裂从2016年开始不断加大

31:49 e/acc (有效加速主义）是什么？以及有哪些硅谷“cults”出现了？

40:40 什么是Marc Andreessen和Ben Horowitz的“The Little tech agenda (小型科技议程)”？他们如何看待AI 监管？

58:10 简析Peter Thiel对于特朗普的支持，以及他和JD Vance之间的历史

01:04:10 简析马斯克对于特朗普的公开支持

01:13:50 扎克伯格最近的态度：没有表态但是...

01:28:00 科技届的在公众面前的形象如何在2016年之后逐渐“崩坏”？

01:33:10 哈里斯和加州湾区的关系，以及科技圈对哈里斯的支持网“VC for Kamala”

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

小华：媒体人，美政观察者

曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者

Afra: 在湾区生活工作的科技从业者

一闻：商业记者，曾驻旧金山报道科技行业

主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。

【 What We Talked About】

In recent years, Silicon Valley, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, has been undergoing subtle changes. The tech industry's "right turn" and public support for Trump from prominent figures like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen seem to herald a political earthquake. Does this reflect a backlash from the tech world against long-standing "hostility" from mainstream society?

In this episode, we explore Silicon Valley's political leanings in the upcoming election, the shifts in the tech industry's political spectrum amidst the AI revolution, and the emergence and spread of new political language originating from the tech sphere.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

03:25 How AI is transforming political language

08:17 Recent "rightward shift" of Silicon Valley leaders supporting Trump

13:27 Marc Andreessen and a16z's public support for Trump, and what his "Techno-Optimist Manifesto" reveals

21:00 The widening rift between Washington and Silicon Valley since 2016

31:49 What is e/acc (effective accelerationism)? And what Silicon Valley "cults" have emerged?

40:40 What is Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz's "Little Tech Agenda"? Their views on AI regulation

58:10 Brief analysis of Peter Thiel's support for Trump and his historical connection with J.D. Vance

01:04:10 Brief analysis of Elon Musk's public endorsement of Trump

01:13:50 Mark Zuckerberg's recent attitude: No statement, but...

01:28:00 How has the tech industry's public image gradually "collapsed" after 2016?

01:33:10 Kamala Harris's relationship with the Bay Area, and the tech circle's support network "VC for Kamala"

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

Afra: Tech professional living and working in the Bay Area

一闻（Yiwen）：Business reporter, with previous experience covering the tech sector while based in San Francisco

The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.

【拓展链接】

Key Issues in the 2024 United States Presidential Election, https://fletcher.tufts.edu/news-events/news/key-issues-2024-united-states-presidential-election

The Little Tech Agenda, https://a16z.com/the-little-tech-agenda/

The Techno-Optimist Manifesto, https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/

VCs for Kamala, https://www.vcsforkamala.org/

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

这个大选周期的第二场总统辩论、哈里斯与特朗普的首场正面交锋，于美国东部时间9月10日晚9点在费城的国家宪法中心举行。这场辩论，拉开了2024年大选最后的冲刺阶段。我们在辩论当晚在线上直播录制了本期节目，对双方的表现进行了点评。

因为技术原因，录音质量不够理想，烦请见谅。

本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:57 辩论总体印象：主播认为谁赢了？辩论输赢会如何影响选情？

11:52 堕胎问题：对民主党有利的议题

19:17 辩论主持人的事实核查

21:44 特朗普对哈里斯的人身攻击

22:37 经济问题：双方都有经济学教授背书？

27:34 移民问题上双方的攻防

33:44 特朗普回避1月6号国会山暴乱问题

40:55 为何特朗普称呼塔利班头子稍显“亲密”？

48:06 泰勒·斯威夫特公开支持哈里斯，会有什么影响吗？

50:02 特朗普VS哈里斯 与 2016年特朗普VS希拉里，有何可比性？

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者

【 What We Talked About】

The second presidential debate of this election cycle, and the first face off between Harris and Trump, took place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9 PM Eastern Time on September 10th. This debate marks the beginning of the final sprint for the 2024 election. We recorded this episode live online on the night of the debate, providing commentary on both candidates' performances.

Due to technical issues, the audio quality is not ideal. We apologize for any inconvenience.

This program is jointly produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. Subscribe to "The U.S. Election and Global Shifts" program on Vistopia for more insights.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:57 Overall debate impression: Who won? How will the debate outcome affect the race?

11:52 Abortion: A favorable topic for Kamala Harris

19:17 Fact-checking by the debate moderators

21:44 Trump's personal attacks on Harris

22:37 Economic issues: Both sides backed by economics professors?

27:34 The exchange on immigration issues

33:44 Trump's avoidance of the January 6th Capitol riot question

40:55 Why did Trump address the Taliban leader in a seemingly "intimate" manner?

48:06 Taylor Swift's public endorsement of Harris: What impact might it have?

50:02 Trump vs. Harris compared to Trump vs. Hillary in 2016: What are the parallels?

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

民主党全国代表大会在8月19日到22日于芝加哥联合中心“胜利召开”。在本期播客中，我们和嘉宾向杨讨论了党代会的整体氛围，对整个大会进行了回顾，并和上个月共和党的大会做对比。我们也分析了哈里斯在演讲和竞选中的策略选择，并展望了未来两个月选举中可能出现的变数。

本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

04:01 党代会气氛如何？民主党对危机管理格外重视？

08:48 巴以问题在党代会中被淡化

17:11 美国党代会逐渐远离“开放”，靠近模范化？

23:04 围绕特朗普展开的共和党党代会，前领导人都未出席

31:24 共和党邀请众多工人代表、劳工领袖参会

36:38 演讲顺序，有按照“黄金时间”规划吗？

43:13 党代会对两党支持率有什么影响

48:24 部分民调预测哈里斯领先于特朗普，该如何看待？

0:59:10 党代会上，哈里斯更多喊口号少提具体政策，是一种策略吗？

1:18:00 接下来，决定大选走向的最大变数是什么？特朗普犯错还是哈里斯犯错？

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者

向杨：芝加哥大学社会学博士候选人，b站up“向杨Alan君”

【 What We Talked About】

The Democratic National Convention was held at the United Center in Chicago from August 19 to 22. In this episode, we sit down with our guest, Xiang Yang, to unpack the convention's vibe, key moments, and how it stacked up against the RNC last month. We also analyze Harris's strategic choices in her acceptance speech and her campaign, and forecast the potential game-changers in the final stretch to Election Day.

This program is jointly produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. Subscribe to "The U.S. Election and Global Shifts" program on Vistopia for more insights.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

04:01 What's the vibe at the convention? Is the Democratic Party paying extra attention to crisis management?

08:48 The Israel-Palestine issue downplayed at the convention

17:11 Are U.S. party conventions moving away from "openness" and towards normalization?

23:04 RNC centered around Trump, with former leaders absent

31:24 RNC invited worker representatives and labor leaders to the convention

36:38 Is there a "prime time" strategy for the speech order?

43:13 How do the conventions impact the approval ratings of both parties?

48:24 Some polls show Harris leading Trump - how should we interpret this?

59:10 Harris focuses more on slogans and less on specific policies - is this a strategy?

1:18:00 What's the biggest wildcard - a Trump misstep or a Harris blunder?

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

向杨：PhD candidate in Sociology at the University of Chicago, Bilibili creator “向杨Alan君”

【拓展链接】

向杨Alan君 https://space.bilibili.com/495979610/

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

拜登退选并宣布支持哈里斯之后的最初几周，哈里斯打出了梦幻开局。8月6日，哈里斯选择明尼苏达州的州长蒂姆·沃尔兹（Tim Walz）为自己的竞选搭档。我们会在本期节目中盘点哈里斯的开场，副手的选择，以及特朗普的反应。

本期播客录制与美国东部时间8月6日晚间。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:01:15 过去一个月的感受

00:03:00 哈里斯成为民主党总统候选人后的党内团结和士气高涨

00:15:32 哈里斯的好感度上升及其原因

00:18:00 万斯好感度和特朗普的绑定

00:23:06 拜登/哈里斯的竞选团队

00:25:58 民主党选民政治联盟可能的变化和挑战

00:28:20 哈里斯竞选策略和政策立场的转变

00:32:32 哈里斯选择蒂姆·沃尔兹作为副总统候选人以及没有选别人的原因

00:35:38 北卡州长库珀主动高风亮节

00:39:21 宾州州长夏普罗最终出局

00:45:30 沃尔兹如何成为左派的最爱

01:03:25 沃尔兹的竞选能力怎样

01:07:45 民主党给共和党贴上怪异（Weird）标签的策略能否奏效

01:10:13 特朗普对哈里斯的种族主义攻击

01:17:23 特朗普竞选策略的变化

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师

小华：媒体人，美政观察者

【 What We Talked About】

Following Biden's withdrawal and endorsement, Harris launched her campaign with remarkable momentum. On August 6th, she tapped Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. In this episode, we'll analyze Harris's campaign kickoff, the veepstakes, and Trump's response.

This podcast was recorded on August 6th at 8 PM Eastern.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:01:15 Reflecting on the past month

00:03:00 Democratic Party unity and surge in morale post-Harris nomination

00:15:32 Understanding Harris's rising favorability ratings

00:18:00 Vance's approval tied to Trump's fortunes

00:23:06 Breakdown of the Biden/Harris campaign team

00:25:58 Shifts and challenges in the Democratic voter coalition

00:28:20 Evolution of Harris's campaign strategy and policy stances

00:32:32 Unpacking Harris's VP pick: Why Walz, why not others

00:35:38 Governor Cooper's (NC) strategic withdrawal

00:39:21 Governor Shapiro's (PA) exit from VP contention

00:45:30 Walz's ascent as a progressive favorite

01:03:25 Assessing Walz's campaign chops

01:07:45 Viability of the Dems' "weird" strategy

01:10:13 Examining Trump's racist attacks on Harris

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

【拓展链接】

定义卡玛拉·哈里斯 https://theamericanroulette.com/defining-kamala-harris/

两集新播客和三个梗🥥🌴 https://theamericanroulette.com/meme-saves-america-kamala-harris-brat/

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

2024年7月21日美国东部时间下午1:46，美国总统拜登在社交媒体上发表声明，宣布退出2024年美国总统竞选。这一事件不仅彻底改变了整个大选的局势，更有可能深远影响美国的命运。

我们紧急录制了新一期播客，讨论了拜登退选的原因及其影响，分析了潜在接班人哈里斯的优势和劣势以及她可能的竞选策略，并展望了并不怎么光明的未来。

本期播客录制于美国东部时间7月21日晚间。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:00:41 民主党高层如何通过压力让拜登退选

00:05:57 民主党新候选人产生的流程

00:11:52 各州选票截止日期和民主党大会召开时间带来的挑战

00:15:10 换人后如何从流程上增加哈里斯（或其他候选人）的合法性

00:19:34 民主党对哈里斯支持的不同态度

00:24:08 民主党换人是一种自我实现的预言

00:25:50 哈里斯的优势和劣势

00:27:27 拜登退选本人和民主党精英的都有责任

00:31:35 民主党国会成员要求拜登退选的考量

00:34:37 拜登为何无法扭转竞选危机

00:40:13 哈里斯给选举带来的变数

00:44:00 哈里斯需要尽快定义自己的形象

00:49:29 哈里斯的潜在副总统人选

01:02:30 哈里斯的动员和选举策略

01:09:45 极化环境下总统选举对参议院和众议院选情的影响

01:14:25 特朗普获胜、共和党控制两院的后果

01:17:04 民主党对特朗普获胜的恐惧

01:19:56 拜登接下来还能做什么？

01:25:35 拜登退选打开的潘多拉魔盒

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

寄馀生：比较政治爱好者

【 What We Talked About】

On July 21, 2024, at 1:46 PM Eastern Time, President Joe Biden announced on X that he has decided to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. This development has not only dramatically reshaped the entire election landscape but also holds significant implications for the future of the United States.

We recorded an urgent podcast episode to discuss this event. We examined the reasons behind Biden's decision and its potential impacts. We also delved into the strengths and weaknesses of potential successor Kamala Harris, her possible campaign strategies, and the uncertain future that lies ahead.

This episode was recorded on the evening of July 21, Eastern Time.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:00:41 How Democratic leaders pressured Biden to withdraw

00:05:57 The process of selecting a new Democratic nominee

00:11:52 Challenges posed by state ballot deadlines and the timing of the Democratic National Convention

00:15:10 Enhancing the legitimacy of Harris (or another candidate) through procedural changes

00:19:34 Varied attitudes within the Democratic Party towards supporting Harris

00:24:08 The self-fulfilling prophecy of the Democratic Party's candidate switch

00:25:50 Harris's strengths and weaknesses

00:27:27 Responsibility of Biden and Democratic elites in his withdrawal

00:31:35 Calculations of Democratic Congress members in urging Biden to step down

00:34:37 Why Biden couldn't reverse his campaign crisis

00:40:13 The uncertainties Harris brings to the election

00:44:00 The need for Harris to quickly define her own image

00:49:29 Potential VPl picks for Harris

01:02:30 Harris's mobilization and campaign strategies

01:09:45 The impact of the polarized environment on Senate and House races during the presidential election

01:14:25 Consequences of a Trump victory and Republican control of both chambers

01:17:04 Democratic fears of a Trump win

01:19:56 What Biden can still do moving forward

01:25:35 The Pandora's box opened by Biden's withdrawal

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast

【拓展链接】

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/us/politics/biden-withdrawal-timeline.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

在特朗普枪击事件后，共和党全国大会在威斯康星州密尔沃基召开。整个共和党团结在特朗普身后，已完全成为特朗普的党。特朗普还选择了来自俄亥俄州的参议员JD Vance作为副总统候选人。

在播客的开头，我们也回顾了特朗普枪击事件对特朗普和拜登双方的后续影响。本期播客录制于美国东部时间2024年7月19日晚间，录制时拜登尚未退选。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:01:07 特朗普枪击和共和党全国大会并没有减轻拜登退选的压力

00:24:45 共和党开了一场团结的大会

00:27:43 黑莉对特朗普的背书能帮到特朗普吗？

00:30:19 特朗普的副总统选择——万斯

00:41:53 硅谷部分金主对特朗普和万斯的支持

00:48:59 卡车司机工会主席参加共和党大会

00:49:21 共和党转型成为“大帐篷”党？

00:53:05 共和党党纲的变化

00:58:32 《2025计划》

1:01:50 特朗普的加冕和一波三折的演讲

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

小华：媒体人，美政观察者

【 What We Talked About】

After the Trump shooting, the Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The entire Republican Party rallied behind Trump, clearly showing it has become his party. Trump also chose Republican Senator from Ohio, JD Vance, as his vice-presidential candidate.

At the beginning of the podcast, we reviewed the impact of the Trump shooting for both Trump and Biden. This episode was recorded on the evening of July 19, 2024, Eastern Time, and at the time of recording, Biden had not yet withdrawn from the race.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:01:07 The Trump shooting and the Republican National Convention didn't ease the pressure on Biden to withdraw

00:24:45 Republicans held a unified convention

00:27:43 Can Haley's endorsement help Trump?

00:30:19 Trump's VP pick: JD Vance

00:41:53 Support from Silicon Valley donors for Trump and Vance

00:48:59 Teamsters president attends the Republican convention

00:49:21 Is the GOP transforming into a "Big Tent" party?

00:53:05 Changes in the Republican Party’s platform

00:58:32 Project 2025

01:01:50 Trump's coronation and his tumultuous speech

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

【拓展链接】

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/19/us/politics/biden-defiance.html

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

7月13日，前总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒举行集会时，现场发生枪击案，特朗普右耳上部被击中。枪手在现场被特勤局击毙，枪击造成一名现场观众死亡。目前枪击案正被作为对特朗普的暗杀未遂进行调查。

我们在事件后第一时间录制了一起播客，对此事件及其影响进行了分析。我们还对历史上发生的针对美国总统的暴力事件进行了回顾。

本期播客录制于美国东部时间2024年7月14日下午，播客录制后事件可能会有新的发展。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:00:24 枪击事件回顾

00:01:18 特朗普遭刺杀未遂对选情的影响

00:05:58 美国总统和总统候选人是世界上风险最高的职位

00:08:57 四年前和八年前民调的偏差

00:10:17 特朗普遭刺杀未遂让共和党空前团结

00:11:43 党代会引发的民调上扬

00:15:38 归根结底还在于摇摆选民

00:16:36 刺杀未遂重新定义特朗普的竞选形象

00:20:59 事件后续发展和两党反应相关

00:26:46 事件减轻了拜登被要求退选的压力

00:28:40 拜登团队和奥巴马团队的嫌隙

00:35:37 共和党和保守派对此事的反应和叙事

00:39:01 政治暗杀事件在美国历史上频频发生

00:46:13 对特朗普副总统人选的影响

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

【 What We Talked About】

On July 13, former President Trump was shot during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. He sustained an injury to his upper right ear. The gunman was neutralized by Secret Service agents at the scene. The incident also resulted in the death of one rally attendee. Authorities are currently investigating the shooting as an attempted assassination of the former president.

We recorded this podcast shortly after the event to provide a timely analysis of the incident and its potential implications. Additionally, we offer a historical perspective by reviewing past incidents of violence against U.S. presidents and presidential candidates.

This episode was recorded on the afternoon of July 14, 2024, Eastern Time. The situation may have evolved since the recording of this episode.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:00:24 Overview of the shooting at Trump rally

00:01:18 How the assassination attempt affects Trump's campaign

00:05:58 U.S. Presidents and candidates face world's highest security risks

00:08:57 Analyzing polls from 4 and 8 years ago

00:10:17 GOP rallies behind Trump following assassination attempt

00:11:43 Post-convention bounce in the polls

00:15:38 Swing voters remain the deciding factor

00:16:36 Assassination attempt reshapes Trump's campaign narrative

00:20:59 Responses from Democrats and Republicans

00:26:46 Pressure on Biden to drop out eases after the incident

00:28:40 Friction between Biden and Obama camps

00:35:37 How Republicans and conservatives frame the incident

00:39:01 A look at political assassination attempts throughout U.S. history

00:46:13 Potential impact on Trump's VP pick

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

【拓展链接】

特朗普因遇刺“稳了”？学者：可以参考43年前的里根遇刺 https://ishare.ifeng.com/c/s/v004jQUyxY7TELtgeS-_5Kxqq0oX4RSJw86rpRB7xUGnC--KQ__?spss=np&channelId=&aman=a1afdbD0d1Ebb4dd3cTe87Vdd4k25be219W4d5wdeb&gud=54a5958657

019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate? https://podcast.theamericanroulette.com/episodes/presidential-debate-biden-replacement

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

2022年6月，美国最高法院推翻了维持了半个世纪的联邦宪法保障女性堕胎权的里程碑式判决——罗诉韦德案（Roe v. Wade）。取而代之的是道布斯案（Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization），声称将堕胎权问题归还各州处理。这一决定引发了全国范围内的激烈争议，持续至今。

本期播客最初录制于5月19日，并在7月3日根据最高法院最新判决进行了补充录制。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:02:45 堕胎问题的“州权”和“反扑”

00:04:09 各州的堕胎相关新立法

00:06:39 德州极端堕胎法造成医疗危机后民主党擦屁股

00:09:41 为何各州反堕胎立法漏洞频出

00:14:51 州最高法院引人瞩目的堕胎判决和后果

00:18:37 亚利桑那州高院反堕胎判决是如何起到反效果的

00:22:46 堕胎权公投和选举：“仁义不施而攻守之势异”

00:29:26 堕胎权在全国的可及性危机

00:35:38 联邦最高法院持续介入堕胎权问题

00:36:18 米非司酮案：保守派法官削弱行政部门

00:49:43 紧急堕胎医疗与“医生的良心”

00:56:33 古老的Comstock法案与今天的堕胎权

01:05:04 堕胎权被推翻会引发其他“隐私权”重审吗

01:14:06 美国和其他国家的堕胎权发展史大相径庭

01:21:39 特朗普摇摆不定的堕胎权立场

01:27:16 全国堕胎权禁令和堕胎权与大选的未来

01:36:16 高院在米非司酮案中支持FDA的前因后果

01:39:56 推翻“雪佛龙尊重”和堕胎权行政诉讼

01:47:56 高院未表态紧急堕胎医疗案中的实质问题

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成一名纽约诉讼律师

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

Nancy：普林斯顿大学政治学博士生，耶鲁法学院法律博士

【 What We Talked About】

In June of 2022, the United States Supreme Court overturned the milestone opinion that ensured women’s right to abortion in the federal Constitution for half a century – Roe v. Wade. Instead, the Dobbs opinion proclaimed to return the issue of abortion to the states. For the past two years, controversies surrounding abortion rights have only grown louder nationwide.

This episode of the podcast analyzes the interplay between state legislative enactments and judicial review on the issue of abortion rights over the past two years, the national accessibility crisis of abortion rights, several decisions produced by federal courts on abortion-related issues, and the potential role of abortion rights in the upcoming 2024 elections.

This episode was initially recorded on May 19th and supplemented on July 3rd following the latest Supreme Court decisions.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:02:45 “State rights” and “backlash” of the abortion question

00:04:09 New state legislations on abortion

00:06:39 Extreme abortion laws in Texas cause a medical crisis while Democrats try to save the day

00:09:41 Why are anti-abortion state laws full of loopholes

00:14:51 Eye-catching state supreme court abortion decisions and consequences

00:18:37 How the Arizona Supreme Court’s anti-abortion decision backfired

00:22:46 Abortion right on the ballot and in the elections: “When benevolence and righteousness are not practiced, the balance of attack and defense shall alter.”

00:29:26 National accessibility crisis of abortion rights

00:35:38 Federal Supreme Court continues to weigh in on abortion rights

00:36:18 Mifepristone case: conservative justices weaken the administrative state

00:49:43 EMTALA, emergency abortion care, and “a doctor’s conscience”

00:56:33 Ancient Comstock Act and today’s abortion rights

01:05:04 Will overturning abortion rights lead to a retrial of other “privacy rights”?

01:16:06 American abortion rights as an international anti-trend

01:21:39 Swinging abortion position of Trump

01:27:16 National abortion ban, and the future of abortion rights and the elections

01:36:16 How the Supreme Court supported the FDA in the mifepristone case

01:39:56 Overturning “Chevron deference” and administrative litigation of abortion rights

01:47:56 Supreme Court failed to substantively rule on the EMTALA abortion case

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Lokin：American law student, New York litigator soon-to-be

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

Nancy：Princeton Politics PhD student, Yale Law School graduate

【拓展链接】

嘉宾推荐的论文：

推翻雪佛龙尊重的高院重磅判决：

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