The Argument

How can Europe's liberals stop the far-right? Matt Yglesias and Jerusalem Demsas debate the far right's rise in Germany, France, and beyond, and whether Europe's mainstream parties mishandled immigration and opened the door for the AfD and Marine Le Pen. They get into what Sweden and Denmark got right on integration, why deportations and asylum deterrence are so hard, whether liberals should ever govern with the far right, and why Europe's strange aversion to air conditioning is a gift to populists.

Plus a peer review on whether having more kids pushes mothers into remote work.

(00:00) Are liberals losing Europe?
(6:24) Magna Carta, freedom of movement, and immigration
(14:05) Dril tweets and the sane-washing dilemma
(20:29) Should liberals give into populist demands?
(28:14) Joe Biden, deportations, and asylum
(31:47) Libya, the Mediterranean, and deterrence
(41:02) What Sweden and Denmark got right
(48:20) France, the UK, and air conditioning
(52:02) Peer Review: moms and remote work

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The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias debate whether artificial intelligence poses an existential risk to human civilization, or if that idea is just a dangerous distraction from real, near-term risks. Matt's case for doom is that we'll cede more power and authority to AI agents as they recursively self-improve, leaving humans more vulnerable in the end. Jerusalem pushes back on this and argues that obsessing over extinction scenarios makes it harder to regulate biological weapons, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and the economic disruptions already underway.

Plus a peer review of a new paper on why meetings can actually be good for you and your company.

(00:00) Is advanced AI going to kill us all?
(04:09) Jerusalem pushes back on AI doom
(07:26) The Claude Code auto-mode problem
(11:02) Bioweapons and AI's real near-term risks
(15:41) Why extinction risk still matters politically
(19:21) Why Matt is scared of a flawless AI
(33:13) Reasons AI won't take over
(52:08) The case for an AI pause
(58:54) Peer review: why meetings are actually good for you

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com

New episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

For this month’s book club, Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias read Friedrich von Hayek’s “The Road to Serfdom,” the 1944 book that argued central planning inevitably leads to totalitarianism and became one of the most cited books in American and British politics. Jerusalem and Matt get into whether Hayek’s central thesis actually explains Nazi Germany, the similarities between socialism and fascism, and why authoritarian regimes are always run by scumbags instead of nice-guy technocrats.

(00:00) Are we on the road to serfdom?
(02:25) Hayek's real argument: central planning leads to dictatorship
(05:26) Britain puts Hayek's theory to the test
(08:20) What's the line between socialism and the welfare state?
(14:49) Why this 80-year-old debate keeps coming back
(20:45) The viral tweet about life before Uber
(31:49) What does "economic freedom" actually mean?
(48:22) Decentralizing power: philanthropy, federalism, and price controls
(56:45) When regulation goes too far
(01:15:28) Why the worst people always end up on top

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com

New episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

As the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks approaches, Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias look back at the day itself, the warning signs that preceded it, and the 25 years of politics that followed. They trace how the response reshaped foreign policy, launched the global War on Terror, and set the Republican Party on a path that eventually led to Donald Trump and the rise of MAGA. They also get into the intelligence failures before the hijackings, the Patriot Act, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and how the Republicans and Democrats have flipped on issues like security and surveillance. Plus a peer review on how private tutoring centers like Kumon affect student performance.

(00:00) The difference between George W. Bush and Donald Trump
(03:53) The World Trade Center bombing
(07:02) Why the towers didn't collapse right away
(11:58) The many red flags
(15:55) Bush, Saddam, and the Gulf War
(24:40) How today's GOP would have responded differently
(29:05) The hate crime surge, and who it actually hit
(33:06) Neocons, hawkish Democrats, and the case for war
(45:55) Why right liberalism is in retreat
(57:06) Somalia, Black Hawk Down, and intervention fatigue
(01:09:04) Explaining 9/11 to people who don't remember it
(01:13:07) If a Democrat was president on 9/11
(01:22:52) Peer review: How much do private tutors really help?

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com

New episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Nate Silver thinks the center-left might be right about a lot of policy questions, but they're still losing the political argument. He joins Jerusalem Demsas, Matt Yglesias, and special guest Jeremiah Johnson (staff writer at The Argument and host of the New Liberal Podcast) to dive into his recent article, "12 questions for the center-left." They get into whether liberalism and centrism are actually the same thing, why liberals need to be more vocal about their accomplishments, and whether many "anti-establishment" politicians like AOC, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders are actually part of the establishment.

Plus a peer review of a new paper on AI-assisted decision-making in child protective services and what it reveals about human and algorithmic bias.

(00:00) Nate Silver's questions for the center-left
(03:48) Vibe check for the center-left
(07:44) Liberalism vs. centrism: not the same thing
(09:48) Zohran Mamdani and sewer socialism
(19:45) Answering Hasan Piker: do centrists believe in anything?
(24:52) Why the Democratic establishment won't get overthrown
(46:31) Why the center-left won't get angry
(50:36) What happened to the center-right?
(57:29) Is the DSA a threat to liberalism?
(59:57) California, LA, and the failure of one-party rule
(01:08:04) Peer review: Can AI make CPS decisions less biased?

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com

New episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Americans are spending more time alone than ever before. Derek Thompson, author of "The Anti-Social Century" and co-author of Abundance, joins Jerusalem Demsas and Matthew Yglesias to argue that this isn't loneliness in the traditional sense. This new brand of loneliness is a choice, and Derek fears it's spreading across the world. Jerusalem presses him on whether the data actually supports the trend, and Matt talks about how social technology has helped him stay connected to friends.

Plus a peer review of a new paper on joint custody after divorce in Sweden, and why both hosts are skeptical of its headline finding.

(00:00) Why Derek Thompson is obsessed with loneliness
(05:33) Americans are choosing to be alone
(12:33) The difference between being alone and being lonely
(17:48) The studies that show forced socializing works
(32:29) Are guilty pleasures a modern phenomenon
(34:35) Why English-speaking countries are lonelier
(43:10) Is American happiness actually declining?
(47:01) Matt's case that phones make him less lonely
(52:30) Social fitness: socializing as exercise
(59:14) Weakness of the will and winter camping videos
(01:02:02) Peer review: How joint custody affects parents and kids

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Who actually counts as an elite in America?

The Argument ran its own poll on elite perception, and the results scramble a lot of conventional wisdom. Billionaires and celebrities are the only groups a majority of Americans call elite. College professors, journalists, and people with graduate degrees barely register. Jerusalem Demsas and Matthew Yglesias dig into what that means for the anti-elite politics of both parties, and why Matt thinks the poll is an overwhelming win for the Bernie Sanders crowd. Matt even takes the poll on elites himself to see where his views match up.

Plus a peer review of a new paper on Ivy League admissions and elite networks.

(00:00) The Argument's poll on who counts as elite
(02:11) Celebrities, by definition, are elite
(10:01) Poll results, Bernie Sanders, and Chris Rufo
(21:26) Is the turn against feminism real?
(34:45) Hollywood, Green Book, and cultural power
(42:30) Career success vs. marriage and kids
(53:17) Progressive incoherence on population and climate
(01:00:23) Nobody thinks politicians are elite
(01:02:23) Peer review: Ivy League admissions and elite networks

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Is there really a loneliness crisis?

Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias read Robert Putnam's Bowling Alone, the 2000 classic that diagnosed America's collapse in community life. They argue about how bad the loneliness problem really is today, and whether Putnam's diagnosis about the loss of associational life actually holds up. They also get into Putnam's uneasiness about telling people to go to church, whether social capital really explains crime and civic health, what happened to the arguments the left already won, how much television and phones are to blame, and more.

(00:00) Why we're reading Bowling Alone in 2026
(05:14) Bowling alone is more concerned about church attendance
(12:08) Does social capital explain anything?
(17:00) Television, the internet, and the usual suspects
(27:26) How American associational life reorganized
(36:53) Has cooperation actually declined?
(43:57) Voting, civic engagement, and what counts
(55:57) The arguments the left already won
(01:05:21) Why do young people who are doing fine feel so bad?
(01:12:58) "Get off your phones" and other bad prescriptions

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Many people say the #MeToo movement went too far. Jerusalem Demsas disagrees: she thinks it didn't go far enough. Matt Yglesias wants to talk about what the movement actually was, and worries about the risks of a leaderless movement without clear standards. They get into the difference between social and legal standards for misbehavior, why the Aziz Ansari story split the discourse, and what vibe shift actually took place.

Plus a peer review of a new paper on migration, gentrification, and the people who prefer to move to better neighborhoods rather than fixing the ones they're in.

(00:00) Jerusalem's hot take: #MeToo didn't go far enough
(04:36) What Matt Yglesias thinks
(08:24) The "abolish police" problem for #MeToo
(09:54) Feminists using culture instead of the legal system
(21:11) Aziz Ansari and unfair consequences
(27:49) Social accountability vs. legal accountability
(35:05) The gender gap on #MeToo
(47:49) The Srinivasan essay and what #MeToo really was
(01:02:52) Peer review: Move or fix the neighborhood

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

Once a month, The Argument podcast does a book club episode. This month we are reading Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam. Read along if you are interested, and comment with any questions/ideas you'd like us to explore!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Most Americans still see buying a home as the ultimate financial goal, but Jerusalem Demsas thinks homeownership is overrated. Matt Yglesias, a proud homeowner, disagrees. They get into why the American Dream might be a bad financial deal, what's really driving people's demand for stability, and whether the Singapore model has something to teach us.

Plus a peer review of a new paper using Swedish lottery data to ask what money actually does to marriages.

(00:00) Homeownership is overrated
(04:42) The "only path to wealth" myth
(10:16) The home equity piggy bank
(17:25) The illiquidity problem
(22:21) Homeownership brain
(27:30) What everyone actually wants: stability
(32:57) Rent control is back
(35:28) A Singapore-style savings idea
(45:17) The YIMBY case for more homeowners
(46:45) Peer review: Lottery winners and marriage

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

Once a month, The Argument podcast does a book club episode. This month we are reading Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam. Read along if you are interested, and comment with any questions/ideas you'd like us to explore!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.