The Argument

Most Americans fear that AI is about to cause widespread job losses, so Matt Yglesias and Jerusalem Demsas brought in their first-ever guest, Timothy B. Lee of the Understanding AI newsletter, to break it all down. Matt thinks a white-collar wipeout is coming. Jerusalem and Tim think we've got enough time to adapt.

Plus, a peer review on a new paper about the effects of mixed-use zoning.

(00:00) Our first guest: Tim Lee on AI and jobs
(02:27) Matt's case for the white-collar wipeout
(05:43) Jobs are bundles of tasks
(08:26) The O-ring theory: why one human still matters
(18:02) Tim's answer: it's all about timescales
(21:27) Chess, Starbucks, and the human preference problem
(24:28) The protectionism scramble: gas pumps and self-driving trucks
(30:47) The "canaries in the coal mine" study on young workers
(38:45) Channeling 2015 Matt: just run a hotter economy
(49:30) Peer review: What's actually wrong with zoning?

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have been packing arenas on their "Fighting Oligarchy" tour, but Matt Yglesias doesn't think the oligarchy is real. Jerusalem Demsas is more sympathetic: donors really do get access that regular people can't, and the discomfort with that is about democracy, not policy outcomes. But the discourse frustrates her too, since "the oligarchy" shifts from a cabal of billionaires to the entire top 10 percent, depending on the argument. They also get into why the study Bernie cites doesn't show what he thinks it shows, how the Republican donor class spent a fortune failing to stop Trump, Mark Zuckerberg's gold-chain era, and the self-interested class that actually has captured American government: homeowners.

Plus a peer review of a paper showing that immigration lowers mortality among the elderly, and what AI does to that argument.

(00:00) Is the oligarchy real?
(03:22) What donors actually buy: access and face time
(12:52) Mark Zuckerberg, the most destructive billionaire
(17:30) Citizens United and the money-buys-elections theory
(21:51) Tom Steyer and the billionaires who lose
(27:18) The real cabal: homeowners
(34:29) The study Bernie cites (and what it actually shows)
(41:04) Why small-d democracy is underrated
(43:17) Money, media, and public reasoning
(53:05) Peer review: Does immigration help the elderly live longer?

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

For this month's book club, Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias read The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the 1961 classic that changed how everyone thinks about neighborhoods. Rereading it as YIMBYs, they find a book that's right about what makes a street feel alive and wrong about almost everything that followed: Jacobs's push to devolve power to the neighborhood level became the veto that now blocks new housing everywhere. They also get into why Jacobs ignored the economics of cities, what Austin gets right that Greenwich Village lost, and the one place Jerusalem agrees with Jacobs completely: city parks are overrated.

Plus a peer review of a new paper on how the typewriter transformed women's economic lives.

(00:00) Rereading the most famous book about cities
(06:00) Greenwich Village, gay bars, and what made her neighborhood special
(15:23) Jacobs's four principles: mixed uses, old buildings, density, and small blocks
(23:17) The blind spot: cities are economic engines
(27:47) How Jacobs's victory became the NIMBY veto
(36:03) Height limits and what Americans actually want
(44:40) The zoning contradiction at the heart of the book
(46:18) It's the people, not the buildings
(49:58) Montreal, Berlin, and why isn't everyone moving to Philadelphia?
(55:21) What would Jane Jacobs think of Austin?
(01:01:15) The case against city parks
(01:16:41) Peer review: How the typewriter changed women's lives

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Should immigrants have to assimilate? Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias take on the growing idea that immigrants shouldn't have to assimilate to belong in America. Jerusalem, the daughter of immigrants, disagrees, and makes the case that assimilation is not only good for the country but that immigrants largely self-select for liking America. The conversation turns to patriotism, and why Jerusalem thinks the left has ceded the American flag to the right by defining the country entirely by its worst chapters. 

Plus a peer review of a buzzy new paper claiming the iPhone is responsible for a significant decline in birth rates, and why they both think the number is too wild to be true.

(00:00) Should immigrants have to assimilate?
(08:24) Why Europe's assimilation panic doesn't fit America
(14:21) Assimilate to what? The liberal democracy line
(22:59) The "emerging Democratic majority" own-goal
(30:39) Cultivating "Americanness" and bilingual education
(39:09) Teaching the norms: the Germany shower story
(45:14) Why America beats Europe at assimilation
(50:10) Reclaiming patriotism for the left
(57:05) Don't Tread on Me and bringing back the Pledge
(01:01:20) Peer Review: Is the iPhone birth control?

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

The Bidens are back in the news, thanks to Jill Biden’s new book and Joe’s apparent difficulties raising money for his presidential library. So Jerusalem Demsas and Matthew Yglesias do the thing the party keeps avoiding: they rank the worst parts of Joe Biden's presidency, from the economy and inflation to immigration, Israel and Gaza, the Kamala Harris pick, and the decision to run for reelection at all. 

Plus a peer review of a new paper on why marriage is collapsing for non-college Americans, and why it isn't the girlbosses.

(0:00) Why Democrats are distancing from Joe Biden
(7:25) Kamala Harris: could Democrats have replaced her in 2024?
(15:00) Biden's cabinet and the identity politics trap
(25:00) Bidenomics: how Elizabeth Warren's staffers took over
(35:14) Biden's border crisis: why the White House ignored it
(45:00) Israel-Gaza: the war splitting the Democratic Party
(55:00) Why Israel dominates every political conversation
(01:05:00) How grievance against Obama shaped Biden's White House
(01:10:25) Peer review: why marriage rates are collapsing in America

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Is online dating advice actually making it harder to find love? 

This week, Jerusalem Demsas and Matthew Yglesias wade into the world of online dating advice, from the manosphere influencers coaching men to treat women as opponents to the female-coded content teaching women to read every date as a minefield. Jerusalem and Matt find themselves split on what it's actually doing to us. Is this tactical advice a useful nudge for people who'd otherwise never take a risk, or a trap of stereotypes that flattens individuals and increases neuroticism? And in a world where the old tracks to marriage have disappeared, what's left to help people actually connect?

Plus: research on the economics of fracking and what the shale revolution did for the Obama era.

(00:00) The problem with modern dating advice
(06:27) Judging Andrew Tate and Dan Bilzerian
(10:16) Psychological dating games and the Neil Strauss era
(18:53) Female-coded dating advice
(30:10) Risk vs. reward in dating
(36:47) Gender stereotypes in modern romance
(46:52) What's the point of a relationship?
(51:07) Peer Review: The economics of frackin

Peer review: “How Much Has Shale Gas Saved U.S. Consumers?" paper by Lucas W. Davis calculating how much natural gas customers have saved annually, between 2007 and 2025, as a result of the fracking boom: https://www.nber.org/papers/w35245

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Is modern environmentalism anti-progress?

This week, Jerusalem Demsas and Matthew Yglesias read Rachel Carson's Silent Spring – the book that launched the modern environmental movement. Jerusalem and Matt find themselves surprised by what's actually in it. Is it a visionary scientific critique or a romantic backlash against modernity? And did Carson's legacy help or hurt the cause she championed?

Plus: new research on whether leaving the workforce accelerates cognitive decline and what that means for an AI-driven future.

(0:00) Why Silent Spring Still Matters Today 
(10:13) The Myth of the "Natural Balance" 
(15:12) The genius of the screwworm program
(20:10) Rachel Carson vs. Big Chemical Industry 
(29:13) Environmentalism and Global Economic Growth 
(40:15) Ecomodernism: Can Science Save Nature? 
(49:31) The Rise of the "Vetocracy" in Policy 
(59:43) Peer review: Does Working Keep Your Brain Sharp? 

Peer review: "Does Employment Slow Cognitive Decline? Evidence from Labor Market Shocks" — Kouchekinia, Neumark & Bruckner (NBER): https://www.nber.org/papers/w35117

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

AI companies keep promising it will cure cancer. But what does that actually mean — and would an AI capable of doing it be one we'd want to live alongside? Jerusalem Demsas and Kelsey Piper debated the question live in San Francisco, in front of a crowd of researchers, investors, and skeptics who had plenty to say about it. One of them is going to be very wrong. Listen and judge for yourself.

(0:00) Is the AI trade-off worth it? 
(3:54) Are small wins good enough? 
(10:27) What would it mean for AI to cure cancer? 
(15:22) AlphaFold: Speeding up the chemistry of life 
(16:40) Did ChatGPT cure a dog's cancer? 
(31:10) Anthropic and the "Build God" strategy 
(34:38) Audience Q&A
(43:50) Jerusalem and Kelsey respond

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

America is on track for its lowest homicide year since 1900, but nobody seems to be celebrating. Matt Yglesias and Jerusalem Demsas debate why crime has dropped so dramatically and what caused the pandemic-era highs in the first place. Were the George Floyd and BLM protests to blame for the increase in crime? Were cops holding back because they felt disrespected? Or was it pandemic-era disruptions that caused the chaos?

Together, they explore what it means for democratic accountability when officers can retreat from their duties, why police union reform remains the third rail of criminal justice policy, and why crime is falling across the country regardless of conservative or progressive leadership.

(0:00) The shocking 2025 crime drop
(5:24) Criminal justice reform & the "Ferguson effect"
(10:02) The George Floyd protests as an authentic democratic reaction
(13:04) Debating the root causes of crime during COVID-19
(23:49) The dire need for police union reform
(29:52) Why nobody wants to be a police officer anymore
(34:26) How much power do progressives actually have?
(42:51) Peer review: Do violent movies prevent crime?

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

This week on The Argument, Jerusalem Demsas and Matthew Yglesias debate the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Jerusalem argues that Americans should have access to cheaper, climate-friendly cars, while Matt says industrial policy requires a more cautious approach.

They dive into the failure of Trump’s tariffs, what serious industrial policy looks like, and how the climate activists are once again missing the mark.

(0:00) The BYD car that can jump over potholes
(4:07) Climate activists miss the mark
(11:46) Setting the stage for war with China
(20:13) Protecting nonunion electric vehicles
(27:50) Let Jerusalem buy a cheap Chinese EV
(35:13) Matt Yglesias’s trade solutions
(41:20) Comparing today to 1980s Japan auto policy
(46:10) Peer review: The effects of school phone bans

Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.com 

New episodes every Thursday—subscribe so you never miss a debate!

The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.