The Big Conversation

This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent rally in the dollar, what’s behind it and whether it’s getting to levels which start to hurt risk assets. Emerging Market equity, one of the consensus trades for 2021, has failed to perform this year. Will the pain spread out to other assets?

 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the ongoing divergence between inflation and risk assets, especially bond yields and the impact that this has had on the stock market. Will we finally see yields rise and value stocks outperform, or is the dollar starting one of those runs higher that can undermine risk assets?

 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at positive seasonality for stocks into year end and the emerging risks that might make this a bumpy ride. Retail investors have changed the nature of equity markets over the last year and this could fuel big moves in both directions.

 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the data behind the inflation headlines that looks robust but is starting to head in the wrong direction. Wages are rising at a slower pace than prices, whilst many goods are no longer affordable. Demand could become severely restricted if policy makers tighten too early.

 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Max Wiethe breaks down the data pointing to a global energy crisis. The prices of energy commodiites like oil, natural gas and coal are skyrocketing, but it isn’t because the global economy and demand have returned to prepandemic levels, in fact, it is supply shortages and lack of production that are driving these price increases. Wiethe examines these dynamics, breaking down the markets for each of the energy commodities, and highlights what this means for their equities, consumers, inflation, and potential Fed policy outcomes. In “The Chatter” section Jim Mitchel, head of Refinitiv’s Americas oil analysts, discusses why this global energy crisis is arguably an “ideology crisis” and why this means we could see all-time record prices for oil in 2022.

 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the repricing of interest rate risk that is taking place at the front end of yield curves. Investors are throwing in the towel on the transient inflation narrative and yields have shot up. Yield curves should flatten, but there is also risk of a VAR shock at the back end of the curve that is not currently being factored in.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the implications of higher energy prices on the prospects for growth. Costs are rising and margins are under pressure, whilst demand remains weak. If bond yields continue to rise, will financial assets also come under pressure?

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the stagflation that many people feel is stalking the economy, from fuel price surges to empty shelves at supermarkets. Is this a rerun of the 1970’s? There is a quantum of solace in that the similarities stop with the surge in prices.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent surge in bond yields and wobbles in the stock market. Concerns about inflation are now turning to stagflation, especially in Europe where energy prices are soaring. Cyclical growth stocks are suffering, but can yields really reach levels that undermine the market?

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at issues surrounding China Evergrande, a leveraged conglomerate that includes property development and banking amongst its operations. Expectations of a default have been running high, but its issues……… and the policy response…… go deep into the transition that China is undertaking.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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