The Big Conversation

This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the likelihood of inflation data taking off from here as we start to see the impact of base effects from last year’s pandemic bust. Economists are upping the ante with bolder and bolder forecasts for growth, but these impacts may be very short lived. The dollar and yields may be self-correcting, and China’s restocking may now be complete. LSEG’s Head of Investment Research EMEA, Marlies Van Boven discusses the rise of smart beta strategies, which are becoming an increasingly important part of the investment landscape.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the risks that excess leverage can pose for the financial system. Was the recent demise of a family office an isolated incident or the tip of the iceberg and are there any market parallels in recent history? In this week's Chatter, Refinitiv’s Head of Banking and Capital Markets, Cornelia Andersson, reviews the surge in M&A volumes at the end of last year that has spilled over into the first quarter of 2021.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the cracks that have been appearing across the financial landscape after only a small bounce in the US dollar. Many of these issues will be dismissed as one-off events, unconnected by geography or asset. But they could all stem from cheap and abundant dollar liquidity that is showing increasing signs of sensitivity to a small reversal in the fortunes of the dollar. Turkey and Brazil have recently shown their vulnerabilities and the problems of leverage within a family office all represent risks that are lurking under the bonnet.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the potential repercussions from the Fed’s dovish turn at the March FOMC. Inflation is one of the primary concerns of the market at this moment, but will an aggressively loose stance again divert capital from more productive means? Distortions of capital have led to price distortions in the market. In this week’s Chatter we talk to Refinitiv economist Oliver Dancel-Fiszer about the impact that the Fed’s dovish turn could have on yields, inflation, and growth.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at China’s key role within the reflation narrative and how it’s been driving some commodity prices higher. Is this a sustainable move or was this a stop gap effort to stimulate supply in response to the pandemic? What now happens to all those finished goods and will China rotate back to domestic consumption? This could wrong foot the reflation trade.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the success of the reflation trade and how higher equity prices are diverting capital from the real economy, higher commodities are a threat to margins and higher real yields could be a headwind for risk assets. The higher equities go, the worse it is for economic growth. Perhaps the Fed put on stocks is lower down than most people expect?

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the underperformance of traditional energy sectors which are lagging the reflation trade. Miners and banks have all outperformed. Is it the turn for energy stocks to take-off? Even taking into account the structural headwinds from regulation and the diversion of capital to renewable energy sources, this underperformance looks extreme. Or perhaps it is the miners that are due a pullback?

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the impact of inflation and higher yields on risk assets such as tech stocks and to ask if inflation can take hold in the US if the rest of the world is experiencing deflation. Europe and China have economic models that don’t easily fit the reflation narrative. If inflation appears, could the US be going it alone? In the Chatter, Refinitiv’s Jharonne Martis discusses a key element for future demand – the health of the US consumer sector.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the surge in single stock equity volumes which is breaking records again in early 2021. There was a distinct pattern of volatility into three of last year’s four major expiries and we should be prepared for similar activity into March. Retail investors are dominating the landscape, with volumes exploding on short dated, small sized and out of the money call options. Investors should be prepared for an equity market dynamic that can create air pockets in both directions. Recorded on Jan 26, 2021.

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Introduction to The Big Conversation 

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