This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the consensus amongst equity strategists for a 10% to 20% correction in the US stock market. Most market professionals expect a 5% to 10% correction. But is this now too much of a consensus to actually come true?

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent big miss from the Non-Farm Payrolls and compare this to some of the other jobs data which suggest there is a massive shortfall in available workers. But are these bottlenecks obscuring the bigger picture in which the outlook for jobs continues to deteriorate? The participation rate continues to subside, and this has been pulling down bond yields. Did the economy ever recover from the previous shock in 2008?

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst has a conversation with Andrea Zazzarelli, Chief Investment Strategist at Fathom Consulting, about whether the economy and market have entered a new cycler after the COVID recession, or whether policy makers have supercharged the previous one. Using Refinitiv’s best-in-class data, they look at the before and after growth trajectory and the impact of fiscal policy, as they answer a question from one of last week’s viewers. The direction of inflation is probably key to understanding if this is a new cycle, or the old one on steroids.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the signs that a mid-cycle slowdown is already underway. Small caps continue to underperform and there are more signs that the reflation trade is under pressure. Emerging markets look particularly vulnerable on a relative basis because they didn’t reap the usual rewards of the cyclical upturn. The German DAX may also underwhelm versus the US equity market, where rotations may see significant price action at the sector level, but this should balance out for the broader market.

The Chatter

Cornelia Andersson, Head of M&A and Capital Raising at Refinitiv, discusses the record volumes in the M&A space, the key role that private equity has played in this process and the potential for these firms to be priced out as corporate activity starts to pick up. The outlook for the rest of the year is for the strong start to continue, with the tech sector leading the way.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the soft macro data coming out of China that could be a prelude to a decline in world growth. With many investors still positioned for reflation, the impact from China could wrong foot many investors. Bond yields have been flagging weaker growth for a few months and a break higher by the dollar could create a significant headwind for reflation assets.

 

The Chatter

The carbon emission markets continue to grow. China is about to launch its trading facility that will eventually grow into the world’s largest carbon market. Refinitiv’s Power and Carbon Senior Analyst, Yuan Li, outlines how this is expected to develop over the next decade.

 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

 

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the unusual activity taking place under the hood of the equity market. Some of this has never been seen before, but should we care, if central banks have our backs? Recent history highlights the risk of air pockets, but are put options now too expensive? 

The Big Questions

In this new section, Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to answer some of the recent questions from viewers about how central bank balance sheets are impacting the Euro and what are the implications for EM bonds resulting from a stronger US dollar or higher US yields.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to review the recent strength in the US dollar and the flattening of the US yield curve. Could this be an inflection point for the reflation trade or has the market overreacted to a few slightly hawkish comments at the recent FOMC? If the dollar breaks some key levels, then the rally could turn into an unexpected rout. 

The Chatter

In this week’s Chatter, Jeoff Hall, Managing Economist at Refinitiv, discusses the outlook for US employment and the recent data conundrum, where there are signs of both extreme slack and extreme tightness. Perhaps the biggest concern from the FOMC is that one of the historically dovish members has turned far more hawkish and this could help sway other members. 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to review the two conundrums at the heart of the inflation debate: lower yields and low levels of employment despite huge demand for jobs. CPI data made a new multi decade high and yet bond yields rolled over. Is the demand for jobs reflecting a lack of suitable employees or is it an opportunistic attempt to hire labor at a low cost? Both the transient and persistent inflation camps have valid arguments, it may just be another case of timing.

 

The Chatter

In this week’s Chatter, Catherine Yoshimoto - Director, Product Management – FTSE Russell

(an LSEG business) runs through one of the major liquidity events for the market, the reconstitution of the FTSE Russell indices such as the Russell 1000 and 2000. This event impacts a large number of stocks via additions and deletions from the various indices and every investor should be aware of which stocks are impacted.

 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the ongoing surge in commodity prices and the massive miss in the employment data. Are these both going to have an impact on earnings and increase the risks for the stock market? Some investors have been looking for cheap hedges to protect against any sudden air-pockets. Inflation metrics are picking up and that’s putting pressure on real yields, helping to boost the prospects for gold.

The Chatter

In this week’s Chatter, Saida Litosh outlines the demand for gold from retail, who are investing in physical gold such as jewelry, whilst institutions have been liquidating ETF positions as they flip into reflation trades. Central banks have reduced their purchases because they have had to increase their fiscal expenditure. These trends are likely to persist, though the backdrop remains very supportive for precious metals.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the two themes which are dominating market talk: the surge in commodity prices and the rise in the use of margin debt to fuel the US equity rally. Should we be concerned about these developments?

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

The Chatter

Bruce Alway, Refinitiv’s Director of Metals Research, looks at the supply and demand factors that have been driving the rise in copper prices. There is a confluence of factors that are creating a structural shift in this sector which suggests that higher copper prices could outlast the broad-based rise in commodities.

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