The Federal Open Market Committee, led by Jerome Powell, is indicating a pause in interest rate hikes, highlighting a need for caution and careful consideration of "highly elevated" geopolitical risks and other uncertainties.

There's potential for a move in December or later, but conditions need to be met based on comprehensive incoming data, the evolving outlook, and risk assessment.

Despite the higher long-term yields, Powell suggests less need for the Fed to hike rates. Reasons for the rise in yields include government budget deficits on an unsustainable trajectory.

Bond Markets:

Bond markets are currently leading to tighter financial conditions, partly due to positive views on the U.S. economy's strength, not just expectations regarding the Federal Reserve.

Powell emphasizes the importance of understanding the reasons behind bond yield fluctuations; this understanding affects the central bank's actions.

Rising borrowing costs may be influenced by U.S. growth expectations and concerns over significant federal deficits.

Debt and Deficit Concerns:

Current federal deficits, particularly during a period of full employment, are unprecedented. While the unsustainable nature is agreed upon, there's debate over when it becomes problematic.

The term premium, which represents the extra yield investors require for investing in longer-term assets, might be increasing.

Foreign economic growth, especially China's, is slowing down, impacting the bond market.

Aging populations in developed countries suggest more debt issuance in the future.

Historical Perspective:

This could be a new normal

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