In 2024, we’re set to break a major climate threshold for the first time: this will be the first calendar year in which global average temperatures breach the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold enshrined in the Paris Agreement. Importantly, while one year at this temperature doesn’t mean all is lost, it does fire a profound warning shot over our faltering progress on mitigating and adapting to the climate crisis.

While every fraction of a degree matters when it comes to the climate, the consensus is clear that above 1.5C the severity of impacts and risk of tipping points like mass coral reef die off or the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet become substantially higher. You might therefore expect this to be front page news. Yet compared with its gravity, it has barely made headlines. If, like us, you’re wondering why — as it turns out, this was always part of the plan.

In this episode, Adrienne and Andreas Malm break down the concept of “overshoot”, how it’s tied up with the power of fossil fuels, and the future of climate politics, from ecofascism to geoengineering.

Andreas Malm is an associate professor at Lund University, an activist and the author of several books, most recently Overshoot: How The World Surrendered to Climate Breakdown, co-written with Wim Carton.