The Chuck ToddCast

Dr. Ayanna Howard — the former NASA JPL roboticist who became Spelman College’s 12th president in August — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue America needs a dedicated federal agency to oversee AI, regulated by specialty rather than treated as one monolithic technology. Her warning is pragmatic: without guardrails, the backlash after an inevitable bad event will be enormous. She explains why there is no such thing as general AI, why the technology is simultaneously oversold and improving fast, and why models trained on history risk writing marginalized groups out of it. On education, Howard argues critical thinking and basic learning skills matter more than ever, that COVID lockdowns damaged study and social skills in ways schools still haven’t addressed, and that the demographic cliff will force some universities to close. Plus: why America still hasn’t built a moon base.

Timeline:

00:00 Dr. Ayanna Howard joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:30 From NASA to academia

05:15 The case for a new federal AI agency

08:45 Guardrails, backlash, and regulating by specialty

11:45 What people fundamentally misunderstand about AI

17:45 The risk of AI training on an incomplete history

21:00 Teaching math and critical thinking in the AI era

29:30 The demographic cliff and universities that won’t survive

32:00 Spelman’s focus, trade schools, and classical education

36:45 Reforming K-12 and the lingering damage from lockdowns

44:00 Equity in AI development and the case for diverse models

50:15 Why we haven’t gone back to the moon 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd maps a map that keeps getting worse for Republicans: they’re not defending Trump, and they’re trying to convince voters they aren’t Trump Republicans. Ohio is the firewall and the money is pouring in, while the GOP plays triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina and pulls funding from House incumbents. Chuck sees no sign of a blue mirage — consumer confidence is lower than at any point under Biden, a majority say they’re cutting back on spending, and no amount of Trump talking changes lived experience. He also hits Kimberly Guilfoyle’s forced resignation as ambassador to Greece, Katie Zacharia’s debut as press secretary, the federal search of Ilhan Omar’s home, and Elon Musk’s additional $276 million in political spending since July. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list… expanded to ten with the expanding map, of Governorships most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:45 Republicans running from the Trump label

10:00 Trump’s disappearing filter

13:00 Ohio as the firewall and whether rallies actually help

15:45 Triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina

18:15 How big can the House wave get?

21:15 The Latino vote shifts back and the districts in play

26:45 No signs of a blue mirage, and the consumer confidence problem

33:30 Guilfoyle out, and the consequences Trump never faces

37:15 Katie Zacharia’s debut and the sycophancy requirement

41:00 The search of Ilhan Omar’s home and the DOJ’s credibility

47:00 Musk’s $276 million and the problem of concentrated power 

55:00 ToddCast Top 10 Most Likely Governor’s Seat Flips

58:30 #1 Iowa

59:45 #2 Kansas

1:01:15 #3 Ohio

1:02:00 #4 Alaska

1:02:45 #5 Texas

1:03:30 #6 Georgia

1:04:30 #7 Nevada

1:05:30 #8 Oregon

1:06:30 #9 Wisconsin

1:07:00 #10 Florida

1:09:30 Ask Chuck

1:09:45 Predictions for Missouri house race

1:12:00 If Trump doesn’t fire Hegseth, could impeachment succeed?

1:16:00 Why is US an outlier on third party success?

1:17:30 If election is a repudiation, reform on emergency presidential powers?

1:21:00 Can Annie Andrews overcome straight ticket voting in SC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd maps a map that keeps getting worse for Republicans: they’re not defending Trump, and they’re trying to convince voters they aren’t Trump Republicans. Ohio is the firewall and the money is pouring in, while the GOP plays triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina and pulls funding from House incumbents. Chuck sees no sign of a blue mirage — consumer confidence is lower than at any point under Biden, a majority say they’re cutting back on spending, and no amount of Trump talking changes lived experience. He also hits Kimberly Guilfoyle’s forced resignation as ambassador to Greece, Katie Zacharia’s debut as press secretary, the federal search of Ilhan Omar’s home, and Elon Musk’s additional $276 million in political spending since July. 

Then, Washington Monthly editor-in-chief Paul Glastris joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that the entire college rankings industry is measuring the wrong thing. U.S. News rewards wealth, prestige, and exclusivity — guaranteeing the same 20 or 30 schools top the list every year, institutions 95% of students can’t get into anyway. The Monthly ranks on what colleges actually do for the country, and this year debuted the first-ever Best Colleges for Rural America list. Number one is the University of West Alabama in Livingston, population 3,436, where students earn a median $64,122 four years out — roughly $26,500 more than a typical college would have produced. Glastris warns that rural nonprofit closures are creating genuine education deserts, that restrictions on foreign students have gutted school finances, and that fixing higher ed would fix a great deal of what ails the country.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list… expanded to ten with the expanding map, of Governorships most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:45 Republicans running from the Trump label

10:00 Trump’s disappearing filter

13:00 Ohio as the firewall and whether rallies actually help

15:45 Triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina

18:15 How big can the House wave get?

21:15 The Latino vote shifts back and the districts in play

26:45 No signs of a blue mirage, and the consumer confidence problem

33:30 Guilfoyle out, and the consequences Trump never faces

37:15 Katie Zacharia’s debut and the sycophancy requirement

41:00 The search of Ilhan Omar’s home and the DOJ’s credibility

47:00 Musk’s $276 million and the problem of concentrated power 

57:30 Paul Glastris joins The Chuck ToddCast

59:30 Why the rankings always crown the same elite schools

1:03:00 What taxpayers spend, and what the rankings should measure

1:08:00 Endowments, foreign students, and schools in financial trouble

1:13:00 Education deserts and the first rural college ranking

1:18:00 The University of West Alabama and the returns nobody talks about

1:22:45 Higher ed as a political wedge issue

1:27:30 Advice for policymakers and the biggest obstacles to reform

1:33:30 What AI actually does to the value of a degree

1:38:45 How UT Rio Grande Valley outranks Yale

1:44:00 The standout state systems and what makes them work

1:52:00 ToddCast Top 10 Most Likely Governor’s Seat Flips

1:55:30 #1 Iowa

1:56:45 #2 Kansas

1:58:15 #3 Ohio

1:59:00 #4 Alaska

1:59:45 #5 Texas

2:00:30 #6 Georgia

2:01:30 #7 Nevada

2:02:30 #8 Oregon

2:03:30 #9 Wisconsin

2:04:00 #10 Florida

2:06:30 Ask Chuck

2:06:45 Predictions for Missouri house race

2:09:00 If Trump doesn’t fire Hegseth, could impeachment succeed?

2:13:00 Why is US an outlier on third party success?

2:14:30 If election is a repudiation, reform on emergency presidential powers?

2:18:00 Can Annie Andrews overcome straight ticket voting in SC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Washington Monthly editor-in-chief Paul Glastris joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that the entire college rankings industry is measuring the wrong thing. U.S. News rewards wealth, prestige, and exclusivity — guaranteeing the same 20 or 30 schools top the list every year, institutions 95% of students can’t get into anyway. The Monthly ranks on what colleges actually do for the country, and this year debuted the first-ever Best Colleges for Rural America list. Number one is the University of West Alabama in Livingston, population 3,436, where students earn a median $64,122 four years out — roughly $26,500 more than a typical college would have produced. Glastris warns that rural nonprofit closures are creating genuine education deserts, that restrictions on foreign students have gutted school finances, and that fixing higher ed would fix a great deal of what ails the country. 

Timeline:

00:00 Paul Glastris joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Why the rankings always crown the same elite schools

05:30 What taxpayers spend, and what the rankings should measure

10:30 Endowments, foreign students, and schools in financial trouble

15:30 Education deserts and the first rural college ranking

20:30 The University of West Alabama and the returns nobody talks about

25:15 Higher ed as a political wedge issue

30:00 Advice for policymakers and the biggest obstacles to reform

36:00 What AI actually does to the value of a degree

41:15 How UT Rio Grande Valley outranks Yale

46:30 The standout state systems and what makes them work

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three weeks out from the midterms, the richest man on earth spent a weekend laundering a fabricated story about a Senate candidate’s mental health into the mainstream — and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza argue the desperation of it is the tell. They open on the smear campaign against James Talarico in Texas (PolitiFact rated it Pants on Fire; the Ohio facility at the center of it publicly stated he was never a patient), then widen out to what it means that Elon Musk owns both the megaphone and the checkbook — $276 million into the midterms since July. From there: whether Republicans are underestimating the size of this wave, the four-to-seven-point scandal penalty and how it prices Kansas, and a Kalshi-driven walk down the Senate ladder — why 52 seats is the bull probability case, 54 the bull possibility case, and Annie Andrews the most mispriced bet on the board. Plus three stories of an administration behaving like it expects to lose: Kimberly Guilfoyle on the brink in Athens, Hegseth’s plan to livestream a firing-squad execution with eight articles of impeachment waiting for a House that isn’t back until November 9, and DHS agents at Ilhan Omar’s door 22 days before an election. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS

http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS

Timeline:

00:00 The Talarico smear and how Musk mainstreamed it

06:00 Why Texas is the whole ballgame — and the GOP’s stages of grief

12:00  Musk’s $276 million, the Soros projection, and who should control a megaphone

18:00 Kalshi: Are we underestimating the size of this wave?

22:00 The scandal penalty, candidate quality, and pricing Kansas

30:00 Walking down the Senate ladder: 52, 54, and the most mispriced race

36:00 Kimberly Guilfoyle, Scott Bessent, and monkey see, monkey do

41:00 Hegseth: the man crush, the 2006 rerun, and eight articles waiting

46:00 The televised execution, and whose information ecosystem produces it

50:00 DHS at Ilhan Omar’s door, and a DOJ that changed the protocol

54:00 Brewers-Dodgers, a top-heavy West, and why Milwaukee keeps doing this

1:02:00 Commanders’ tie, Dan Quinn’s hot seat, and hire a clock guy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three weeks out, Chuck Todd reads a Pew survey that gives Republicans nothing: Trump at 30% approval — his lowest of the second term and on par with where he sat after January 6th — Democrats up 44-36 on the generic ballot, and 44% of voters describing their vote as a vote against Trump. The enthusiasm gap is the number Todd keeps returning to, and his argument is that we may still be underestimating the size of this wave. He walks through why the close Senate races map almost perfectly onto the states Trump lost in the 2016 primaries, why Roger Marshall’s campaign reportedly has no paid staff, and why bad environments expose bad candidates. Plus Hegseth’s execution livestream, Trump’s Truth Social meltdown over the Nobel, and what a genuine blue wave would mean for both. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of the Bull Moose Party and its impact on both major parties, answers questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:15 How bad a night are Republicans actually looking at?

10:15 Inside the Pew numbers: 30% approval, D+8 generic

12:15 The enthusiasm gap and why the wave may be bigger than we think

19:00 Trump has lost the voters he added in 2024

23:00 Republicans can’t separate themselves from Trump’s decisions

25:30 GOP money promoting left-wing third party candidates

28:00 Kansas as a toss-up, and the 2016 primary map

34:15 Roger Marshall, no paid staff, and how bad environments expose bad candidates

39:30 Hegseth, the execution livestream, and a low opinion of their own voters

47:00 Rubio in Greece, power vs. accomplishment, and the DOJ memo

56:15 Trump’s Nobel meltdown and selling out Lindsey Graham’s legacy 

1:04:15 ToddCast Time Machine - October 14th, 1912

1:04:45 Teddy Roosevelt shot, insists on giving speech anyway

1:08:15 Roosevelt wants more government power to oppose corporate power

1:11:15 Taft & Roosevelt’s falling out

1:15:00 The Bull Moose Party is born 

1:15:45 The differences between Roosevelt and Trump

1:17:45 Roosevelt’s proposals became future progressivism & the New Deal

1:21:15 Republicans moved away from Roosevelt’s philosophy, Dems embraced it

1:23:45 Parts of Bull Moose live on in both modern parties

1:25:45 Ask Chuck

1:26:00 If Dems take house, who becomes speaker and who SHOULD get the job?

1:30:45 How would a better than expected showing for Republicans materialize?

1:33:45 Constitutional amendment to remove presidential immunity?

1:36:15 Who picks up the tab for all of Trump’s campaigning travel?

1:38:15 Could Annie Andrews' increased visibility cause Graham to make missteps?

1:43:15 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three weeks out, Chuck Todd reads a Pew survey that gives Republicans nothing: Trump at 30% approval — his lowest of the second term and on par with where he sat after January 6th — Democrats up 44-36 on the generic ballot, and 44% of voters describing their vote as a vote against Trump. The enthusiasm gap is the number Todd keeps returning to, and his argument is that we may still be underestimating the size of this wave. He walks through why the close Senate races map almost perfectly onto the states Trump lost in the 2016 primaries, why Roger Marshall’s campaign reportedly has no paid staff, and why bad environments expose bad candidates. Plus Hegseth’s execution livestream, Trump’s Truth Social meltdown over the Nobel, and what a genuine blue wave would mean for both. 

Then, AEI senior fellow James Pethokoukis — author of the Faster, Please! newsletter — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue that America’s AI anxiety is the predictable product of two decades of shocks landing on an economy that’s been weak by historical standards. His central political point cuts against his own side of the argument: telling voters their fear is irrational is the worst possible strategy, and Silicon Valley is terrible at communicating with the public. He’s no more comfortable with Trump’s self-regulation approach, noting Congress has failed to pass even a privacy bill of rights and won’t touch AI in the next two years. His cautionary tale is nuclear power, where public aversion cost the country clean energy at scale while far more people died from fossil fuel pollution — and his warning is that AI companies shouldn’t be treated as weapons against China.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of the Bull Moose Party and it’s impact on both major parties, answers questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:15 How bad a night are Republicans actually looking at?

10:15 Inside the Pew numbers: 30% approval, D+8 generic

12:15 The enthusiasm gap and why the wave may be bigger than we think

19:00 Trump has lost the voters he added in 2024

23:00 Republicans can’t separate themselves from Trump’s decisions

25:30 GOP money promoting left-wing third party candidates

28:00 Kansas as a toss-up, and the 2016 primary map

34:15 Roger Marshall, no paid staff, and how bad environments expose bad candidates

39:30 Hegseth, the execution livestream, and a low opinion of their own voters

47:00 Rubio in Greece, power vs. accomplishment, and the DOJ memo

56:15 Trump’s Nobel meltdown and selling out Lindsey Graham’s legacy 

1:06:30 James Pethokoukis joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:08:30 Why an economic growth guy got interested in AI

1:11:30 Shock after shock, and whether the information diet amplifies despair

1:14:00 Why focusing only on AI’s downside is destructive

1:18:30 Self-regulation, congressional failure, and the next two years

1:25:30 What risk level should we demand from AI companies?

1:26:45 The nuclear power cautionary tale

1:31:45 Rapid adoption, delayed productivity, and absurd forecasts

1:38:30 Silicon Valley’s communication problem

1:43:00 Accountability, visibility, and young companies

1:50:30 Where does a free-market conservative go now?

1:56:30 Competition, monopolies, and the China race narrative

2:06:00 ToddCast Time Machine - October 14th, 1912

2:06:30 Teddy Roosevelt shot, insists on giving speech anyway

2:10:00 Roosevelt wants more government power to oppose corporate power

2:13:00 Taft & Roosevelt’s falling out

2:16:45 The Bull Moose Party is born 

2:17:30 The differences between Roosevelt and Trump

2:19:30 Roosevelt’s proposals became future progressivism & the New Deal

2:23:00 Republicans moved away from Roosevelt’s philosophy, Dems embraced it

2:25:30 Parts of Bull Moose live on in both modern parties

2:27:30 Ask Chuck

2:27:45 If Dems take house, who becomes speaker and who SHOULD get the job?

2:32:30 How would a better than expected showing for Republicans materialize?

2:35:30 Constitutional amendment to remove presidential immunity?

2:38:00 Who picks up the tab for all of Trump’s campaigning travel?

2:40:00 Could Annie Andrews' increased visibility cause Graham to make missteps?

2:45:00 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AEI senior fellow James Pethokoukis — author of the Faster, Please! newsletter — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue that America’s AI anxiety is the predictable product of two decades of shocks landing on an economy that’s been weak by historical standards. His central political point cuts against his own side of the argument: telling voters their fear is irrational is the worst possible strategy, and Silicon Valley is terrible at communicating with the public. He’s no more comfortable with Trump’s self-regulation approach, noting Congress has failed to pass even a privacy bill of rights and won’t touch AI in the next two years. His cautionary tale is nuclear power, where public aversion cost the country clean energy at scale while far more people died from fossil fuel pollution — and his warning is that AI companies shouldn’t be treated as weapons against China.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide.

Timeline:

00:00 James Pethokoukis joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Why an economic growth guy got interested in AI

05:00 Shock after shock, and whether the information diet amplifies despair

07:30 Why focusing only on AI’s downside is destructive

12:00 Self-regulation, congressional failure, and the next two years

19:00 What risk level should we demand from AI companies?

20:15 The nuclear power cautionary tale

25:15 Rapid adoption, delayed productivity, and absurd forecasts

32:00 Silicon Valley’s communication problem

36:30 Accountability, visibility, and young companies

44:00 Where does a free-market conservative go now?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Wall Street Journal's brutal profile of Scott Bessent — built on 30-plus interviews describing outbursts, a thrown briefing book he denies, and seven Senate-confirmed officials out the door when previous administrations lost zero to two. The 3-3-3 plan never materialized, the debt cleared $40 trillion, and Trump keeps giving him more. Chuck's read: the whole Cabinet has become mini-Trumps. He then gets into whoever's drip-releasing the Paxton tapes, Pritzker's $1 million check to Gina Hinojosa, and Mike Rogers breaking with Trump on Canada far too late. Finally, Chuck runs the historical numbers on whether Democrats can actually win six-plus Senate seats — with Iowa and Kansas as the real test of the wave theory and whether we’re not seeing a political realignment occurring in real time that could result in Democrats winning 270+ house seats. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:15 The WSJ profile of Scott Bessent and the Treasury exodus

13:00 The 3-3-3 plan that never happened — and a Cabinet of mini-Trumps

17:45 The Paxton tapes and a Texas GOP turning purple

25:30 Pritzker's million-dollar check and the DGA finally spending

28:00 Mike Rogers breaks with Trump — too late

31:30 Voting to check Trump, and a base that blames the candidates

34:15 Getting bullish on the Senate, and what D+16 would mean

42:00 Three possibilities for what we're actually seeing

46:30 The history of winning six or more Senate seats

54:00 Texas, Nebraska, South Carolina — and Iowa and Kansas as the real test

1:02:00 What a Texas-Iowa-Kansas sweep would mean 

1:11:00 Ask Chuck

1:11:15 Top 3 no guts, no glory races this election cycle

1:13:15 Loved the interview with Marcia Chatelain

1:14:00 Would allowing blind votes in congress be a good idea?

1:15:30 Is there ever a line of Trump’s that Stephen Miller could cross?

1:18:45 What’s your read on McMaster appointing Darline Graham?

1:23:15 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Wall Street Journal's brutal profile of Scott Bessent — built on 30-plus interviews describing outbursts, a thrown briefing book he denies, and seven Senate-confirmed officials out the door when previous administrations lost zero to two. The 3-3-3 plan never materialized, the debt cleared $40 trillion, and Trump keeps giving him more. Chuck's read: the whole Cabinet has become mini-Trumps. He then gets into whoever's drip-releasing the Paxton tapes, Pritzker's $1 million check to Gina Hinojosa, and Mike Rogers breaking with Trump on Canada far too late. Finally, Chuck runs the historical numbers on whether Democrats can actually win six-plus Senate seats — with Iowa and Kansas as the real test of the wave theory and whether we’re not seeing a political realignment occurring in real time that could result in Democrats winning 270+ house seats. 

Then, Dmitri Mehlhorn — Democratic strategist, Atoll Society co-founder, and author of the new novel Archipelago of Light — joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through the war games he runs simulating a contested 2028 election. Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists. The Nationalists win a lot of them, and the mechanics are grimly instructive — they pump up progressives to generate backlash, offer carrots and sticks to capital, and find that every norm broken makes the next break easier. Mehlhorn argues the midterms are the rehearsal: get voters accustomed to challenging results now, delegitimize the process before 2028, and exploit a speaker's latitude not to seat delegations if things are close. His core warning is that our biggest failure has been a failure of imagination — and that taking power back has to be the singular issue in 2028. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:15 The WSJ profile of Scott Bessent and the Treasury exodus

13:00 The 3-3-3 plan that never happened — and a Cabinet of mini-Trumps

17:45 The Paxton tapes and a Texas GOP turning purple

25:30 Pritzker's million-dollar check and the DGA finally spending

28:00 Mike Rogers breaks with Trump — too late

31:30 Voting to check Trump, and a base that blames the candidates

34:15 Getting bullish on the Senate, and what D+16 would mean

42:00 Three possibilities for what we're actually seeing

46:30 The history of winning six or more Senate seats

54:00 Texas, Nebraska, South Carolina — and Iowa and Kansas as the real test

1:02:00 What a Texas-Iowa-Kansas sweep would mean 

1:13:15 Dmitri Mehlhorn joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:14:15 The simulation, the three factions, and how it works

1:17:15 Why the Nationalists keep winning

1:22:00 The predictable playbook of authoritarians

1:25:30 What happens if 2028 is disputed

1:33:45 Building the game with AI and historical autocrats

1:36:30 The midterms as practice for 2028

1:42:30 The next 75 days and seating the winners

1:45:15 Texas, Hungary, and what actually deters authoritarians

1:55:30 The urban/rural divide and echoes of pre-WWI

2:00:00 Is the constitutional period already over?

2:07:45 Alarmism vs. vigilance — and what gives him hope

2:18:00 Ask Chuck

2:18:15 Top 3 no guts, no glory races this election cycle

2:20:15 Loved the interview with Marcia Chatelain

2:21:00 Would allowing blind votes in congress be a good idea?

2:22:30 Is there ever a line of Trump’s that Stephen Miller could cross?

2:24:45 What’s your read on McMaster appointing Darline Graham?

2:30:15 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.