The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd argues you don't need a poll to read the midterms — Republican behavior tells you everything. JD Vance is conceding things aren't going well, nobody's buying that it's Biden's economy anymore, and Tim Scott told the NRSC they're in "the fight for their lives," though his 2022 comparison misses that Democrats had Dobbs and Republicans have no equivalent in 2026. Todd's larger argument runs through Trump's UN speech, where the president justified seizing Venezuelan oil with "to the victor go the spoils" — a permission slip Todd says the rest of the world will happily accept. Between unilaterally inviting Putin to the G20, rolling out the red carpet for Xi, and a military stretched thin by Iran, America is now seen as an unreliable partner: one Trump presidency was an aberration, two changes the equation, and it'll take multiple presidents from both parties to win that trust back. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 You don't need a poll — Republican behavior tells the story

11:00 Tim Scott's "fight for our lives" and the missing Dobbs equivalent

17:45 The diesel export ban and Trump's scramble for an Iran deal

23:15 Where Democrats are short on money — and which races are slipping

29:00 "To the victor go the spoils": Trump's UN speech on Venezuela

32:45 A stretched military and allies who no longer trust us

38:30 Xi's red carpet, Putin at the G20, and unilateralism's costs

44:00 Dismantling the system that made America richer and safer 

50:30 Ask Chuck

50:45 Any parallels from Nixon’s career that Harris could take in future run?

54:15 What are the five issues a Dem majority should tackle in 2027?

59:15 Why should fans believe this version of college football is sustainable?

1:05:15 Could congress turn AI concerns into meaningful legislation?

1:08:30 If Dems retake congress, can they force WH to change course?

1:13:15 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues you don't need a poll to read the midterms — Republican behavior tells you everything. JD Vance is conceding things aren't going well, nobody's buying that it's Biden's economy anymore, and Tim Scott told the NRSC they're in "the fight for their lives," though his 2022 comparison misses that Democrats had Dobbs and Republicans have no equivalent in 2026. Todd's larger argument runs through Trump's UN speech, where the president justified seizing Venezuelan oil with "to the victor go the spoils" — a permission slip Todd says the rest of the world will happily accept. Between unilaterally inviting Putin to the G20, rolling out the red carpet for Xi, and a military stretched thin by Iran, America is now seen as an unreliable partner: one Trump presidency was an aberration, two changes the equation, and it'll take multiple presidents from both parties to win that trust back. 

Then, Adam Brandon — who ran FreedomWorks for over a decade and now co-founded the Independent Leadership Council alongside Joe Manchin — joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that a handful of independents could break Washington's logjam. His argument: the parties have shrunk their tents, the blue dogs and moderate Republicans of the 1990s are gone, and in an era of slim majorities, ten independents in Congress could rewrite the rules when a new Congress is seated, install an apolitical speaker, and change every incentive overnight. He points to Montana — where the ILC-affiliated Independent PAC is now airing ads for Seth Bodnar, who needs roughly 210,000 votes to win — as proof the value of money in politics is starting to collapse. Plus: why Libertarians never break through, what younger voters actually want, and why burning the system down just leaves you living in ash.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 You don't need a poll — Republican behavior tells the story

11:00 Tim Scott's "fight for our lives" and the missing Dobbs equivalent

17:45 The diesel export ban and Trump's scramble for an Iran deal

23:15 Where Democrats are short on money — and which races are slipping

29:00 "To the victor go the spoils": Trump's UN speech on Venezuela

32:45 A stretched military and allies who no longer trust us

38:30 Xi's red carpet, Putin at the G20, and unilateralism's costs

44:00 Dismantling the system that made America richer and safer 

53:00 Adam Brandon joins the Chuck ToddCast

54:00 Debt, deficits, and why independents lost faith in both parties

59:30 The vanishing middle: blue dogs, shrunken tents, and the 1990s

1:08:00 How ten independents could break the logjam in Congress

1:16:30 The collapsing value of money in politics — and the Montana test

1:23:00 Why Libertarians can't break through, and politics as entertainment

1:32:15 AI, job displacement, and where independents have the best shot

1:39:00 Rethinking the Partisan Voter Index and where to focus

1:43:45 What younger voters actually want from the system

1:50:15 The candidates ILC is backing — and why 2026 could change everything

1:56:00 Washington's warning, Lincoln's unity ticket, and a fragile democracy

2:02:00 Ask Chuck

2:02:15 Any parallels from Nixon’s career that Harris could take in future run?

2:05:45 What are the five issues a Dem majority should tackle in 2027?

2:10:45 Why should fans believe this version of college football is sustainable?

2:16:45 Could congress turn AI concerns into meaningful legislation?

2:20:00 If Dems retake congress, can they force WH to change course?

2:24:45 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam Brandon — who ran FreedomWorks for over a decade and now co-founded the Independent Leadership Council alongside Joe Manchin — joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that a handful of independents could break Washington's logjam. His argument: the parties have shrunk their tents, the blue dogs and moderate Republicans of the 1990s are gone, and in an era of slim majorities, ten independents in Congress could rewrite the rules when a new Congress is seated, install an apolitical speaker, and change every incentive overnight. He points to Montana — where the ILC-affiliated Independent PAC is now airing ads for Seth Bodnar, who needs roughly 210,000 votes to win — as proof the value of money in politics is starting to collapse. Plus: why Libertarians never break through, what younger voters actually want, and why burning the system down just leaves you living in ash. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Debt, deficits, and why independents lost faith in both parties

06:30 The vanishing middle: blue dogs, shrunken tents, and the 1990s

15:00 How ten independents could break the logjam in Congress

23:30 The collapsing value of money in politics — and the Montana test

30:00 Why Libertarians can't break through, and politics as entertainment

39:15 AI, job displacement, and where independents have the best shot

46:00 Rethinking the Partisan Voter Index and where to focus

50:45 What younger voters actually want from the system

57:15 The candidates ILC is backing — and why 2026 could change everything

1:03:00 Washington's warning, Lincoln's unity ticket, and a fragile democracy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into ProPublica's bombshell on Susan Collins, which details how her office steered millions in federal contracts to defense firm Navatek while her campaign operation pumped CEO Martin Kao's network for donations — sometimes cut within 24 hours of the defense spending bill clearing a Senate hurdle — and how the FBI's pay-to-play investigation died after Trump's purge of the bureau. Chuck’s argument is that the legality is precisely the point: Washington in 2026 is a legalized influence marketplace, Collins is no outlier, and what's needed is a post-Watergate-style transparency revolution — if money is speech, it shouldn't be allowed to hide. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of the worst issues a candidate can campaign on for the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The ProPublica story and what it says about Susan Collins

07:00 The FBI investigation Trump's bureau shut down

08:15 The bigger story: how normal this kind of corruption has become

18:00 Crypto's $30 million play in Ohio and the threat of outside money

21:30 The transparency revolution we actually need

34:45 Iran waiting out the midterms, Mamdani, and Xi's visit

38:45 New Pew data on data centers — and where the money is going

44:30 AOC hints at 2028, and the GOP's Senate spending advantage

51:30 The Paramount settlement with California 

58:00 ToddCast Top 5 most unpopular campaign issues

58:45 #5 A candidate endorsed by Donald Trump

59:00 #4 Wanting to abolish ICE

59:30 #3 Supporting weapons and funding for Israel

59:45 #2 Supporting the war in Iran

1:00:15 #1 Supporting for building data centers

1:02:00 Ask Chuck

1:02:15 What prevents a journalist from pivoting during a TV interview?

1:06:15 Advice for helping with kidney stones

1:07:30 What factors are behind Kansas suddenly becoming competitive?

1:14:15 If you could ask Trump one question, what would it be?

1:16:30 Could a future congress pursue financial penalties for pardoned officials?

1:19:00 Shout out to the Nats

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into ProPublica's bombshell on Susan Collins, which details how her office steered millions in federal contracts to defense firm Navatek while her campaign operation pumped CEO Martin Kao's network for donations — sometimes cut within 24 hours of the defense spending bill clearing a Senate hurdle — and how the FBI's pay-to-play investigation died after Trump's purge of the bureau. Chuck’s argument is that the legality is precisely the point: Washington in 2026 is a legalized influence marketplace, Collins is no outlier, and what's needed is a post-Watergate-style transparency revolution — if money is speech, it shouldn't be allowed to hide. 

Then, Anthony Scaramucci returns to the Chuck ToddCast with All the Wrong Moves, out September 22nd, which argues Trump is a symptom rather than the disease — the product of three decades of bipartisan mistakes: Clinton's China trade deal, Bush waging war while cutting taxes, and Obama's bailout that rescued Wall Street while leaving ordinary families behind. He and Chuck also revisit the private credit questions raised in the ToddCast's Lakers special report, with Scaramucci arguing risky lending simply migrated from banks to private markets and that Mark Walter is likely not an outlier. His predictions are blunt: Trump is effectively conviction-proof, and in Scaramucci's view will try to make tens of billions before pardoning himself and his family — which is why, he warns, if the country doesn't take care of its people, the pitchforks will come out. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of the worst issues a candidate can campaign on for the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

You can order All The Wrong Moves here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250437563

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The ProPublica story and what it says about Susan Collins

07:00 The FBI investigation Trump's bureau shut down

08:15 The bigger story: how normal this kind of corruption has become

18:00 Crypto's $30 million play in Ohio and the threat of outside money

21:30 The transparency revolution we actually need

34:45 Iran waiting out the midterms, Mamdani, and Xi's visit

38:45 New Pew data on data centers — and where the money is going

44:30 AOC hints at 2028, and the GOP's Senate spending advantage

51:30 The Paramount settlement with California 

59:45 "All the Wrong Moves" and the three decades that produced Trump

1:01:45 China, the wars, and a bailout that skipped the citizens

1:05:30 Is Mark Walter an outlier? Private credit and where the risk went

1:09:45 A looming financial crisis — and Trump facing a Democratic Congress

1:12:30 Conviction-proof: corruption, pardons, and the GOP's breaking point

1:14:30 No rule of law, desperate workers, and the pitchforks

1:16:00 How we made the wrong moves — and how he came back after January 6th

1:17:00 ToddCast Top 5 most unpopular campaign issues

1:17:45 #5 A candidate endorsed by Donald Trump

1:18:00 #4 Wanting to abolish ICE

1:18:30 #3 Supporting weapons and funding for Israel

1:18:45 #2 Supporting the war in Iran

1:19:15 #1 Supporting for building data centers

1:21:00 Ask Chuck

1:21:15 What prevents a journalist from pivoting during a TV interview?

1:25:15 Advice for helping with kidney stones

1:26:30 What factors are behind Kansas suddenly becoming competitive?

1:33:15 If you could ask Trump one question, what would it be?

1:35:30 Could a future congress pursue financial penalties for pardoned officials?

1:38:00 Shout out to the Nats

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anthony Scaramucci returns to the Chuck ToddCast with All the Wrong Moves, out September 22nd, which argues Trump is a symptom rather than the disease — the product of three decades of bipartisan mistakes: Clinton's China trade deal, Bush waging war while cutting taxes, and Obama's bailout that rescued Wall Street while leaving ordinary families behind. He and Chuck also revisit the private credit questions raised in the ToddCast's Lakers special report, with Scaramucci arguing risky lending simply migrated from banks to private markets and that Mark Walter is likely not an outlier. His predictions are blunt: Trump is effectively conviction-proof, and in Scaramucci's view will try to make tens of billions before pardoning himself and his family — which is why, he warns, if the country doesn't take care of its people, the pitchforks will come out.

Timeline:

00:00 "All the Wrong Moves" and the three decades that produced Trump

02:00 China, the wars, and a bailout that skipped the citizens

05:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier? Private credit and where the risk went

10:00 A looming financial crisis — and Trump facing a Democratic Congress

12:45 Conviction-proof: corruption, pardons, and the GOP's breaking point

14:45 No rule of law, desperate workers, and the pitchforks

16:15 How we made the wrong moves — and how he came back after January 6th

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Six weeks out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Trump's ban of CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House — escalated Monday when the rest of the TV pool refused to cover him without CNN. Chuck, who fought the Obama White House's attempt to cut Fox out of a pool, explains why the real story is why now: a president lashing out as he loses control everywhere else. NBC has Trump at 41%, his second-term low; the Fed just raised rates for the first time since 2023; and the three most toxic positions in NBC's message testing are the three things Trump spent the last ten days amplifying. Chuck argues everyone is probably underestimating Democrats, then turns to the party's own problems: a DNC in debt, a brand that polls worse than the GOP's, and Axios reporting that most former Harris aides don't expect her to run in 2028. Plus JB Pritzker's 80-pound GLP-1 disclosure and Jayden Daniels' devastating elbow injury. 

Timeline:

00:00 Trump bans CNN, MS NOW & Politico — and how the TV pool works

06:00 Why now? A president grabbing what he can control

16:00 Toxic message tests, Iowa defections & a party running from Trump

24:00 Are we underestimating Democrats? Wave, tsunami or mirage

34:00 The Democrats' money problem — the DNC, donors & turnout groups

40:00 Is Kamala Harris running? The Malibu tell and a cycle off

48:00 Pritzker's weight loss, the Democratic brand & the rise of independents

1:00:00 Jayden Daniels, injuries & the college sports bill

1:08:00 NFL chaos, NBA predictability & the case for relegation

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out

11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump

15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low

18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is

24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues

29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa

35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system

39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage 

48:00 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act

49:15 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports

50:45 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983

51:30 Soviet soldier, Petrov,  was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke

55:15 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong

57:45 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events

1:01:00 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere

1:04:30 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain

1:06:45 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain

1:07:30 Ask Chuck

1:07:45 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness?

1:14:30 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”?

1:18:30 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats?

1:21:00 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context?

1:22:45 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media?

1:31:30 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney?

1:35:00 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling.

Then, Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out

11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump

15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low

18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is

24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues

29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa

35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system

39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage 

51:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast

52:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along

57:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver

1:03:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them

1:09:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if

1:13:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority

1:17:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both

1:26:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition

1:30:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list

1:36:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight

1:45:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out

1:48:45 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act

1:50:00 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports

1:51:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983

1:52:15 Soviet soldier, Petrov,  was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke

1:56:00 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong

1:58:30 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events

2:01:45 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere

2:05:15 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain

2:07:30 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain

2:08:15 Ask Chuck

2:08:30 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness?

2:15:15 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”?

2:19:15 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats?

2:21:45 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context?

2:23:30 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media?

2:32:15 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney?

2:35:45 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along

06:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver

12:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them

18:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if

22:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority

26:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both

35:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition

39:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list

45:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight

54:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.