“The PLA expected Russia to run the same playbook it did with Crimea on a larger scale.  And it didn’t work.”

[Editor’s Note:  Today’s post welcomes back proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Howard Wang, who recently served as a subject matter expert on our Ukraine, the Middle East, and Proxy Wars around the Globe:  Emergent Trends and Associated Implications for the Joint Force panel discussion during the T2COM G-2’s Mad Scientist / William and Mary Great Power Competition & Conflict in the Age of Authoritarian Collusion virtual event on 27 January 2026 — check out the top ten take-aways from this informative event here.

In this episode of The Convergence podcast, Dr. Wang explores how China’s observations of Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine have transformed their approach to contemporary conflict, challenging their long-held precept of “winning without fighting” and forcing the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) re-calibration of its hybrid warfare concept — with cognitive warfare now being harnessed to complement kinetic operations to achieve battlefield success.  Dr. Wang also describes how the U.S. can harden itself against the PLA's "systems destruction warfare" -- Enjoy!]

Dr. Howard Wang is a political scientist at RAND.  From 2024-2025, he was detailed to the Office of the Secretary of Defense as a China Policy Advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. Prior to RAND, he was a policy analyst for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, where he researched U.S.-China military competition and deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.

Dr. Wang’s primary research interests include Chinese Communist Party (CCP)  political decision-making and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) strategy and doctrine. He completed his Doctorate in International Affairs (DIA) at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he was awarded distinction for his thesis research on the CCP’s sea power strategy. Dr. Wang completed his Master’s in Public Policy at Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy and his bachelor’s degree at Boston University.  Dr. Wang co-authored China’s Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War: Perceived New Strategic Opportunities and an Emerging Model of Hybrid Warfare, RAND Report, 22 May 2025.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sat down with Dr. Wang to discuss China’s approach to hybrid warfare, the implications of their “win without fighting” strategy, and what this means for the U.S. Army and Joint Force. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation with him:

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for future insightful episodes of The Convergence podcast!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the T2COM G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1.0, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-1, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-1.1, How China Fights Against a U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team, 10 Things You Didn’t Know About the PLA, and BiteSize China weekly topics.

Our Russia Landing Zone, including T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-2, How Russia Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations and the BiteSize Russia weekly topics.  If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023 and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.

Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE (including Russia’s war in Ukraine war since 2024 and other ongoing competitions and conflicts around the globe).  Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment Intelligence Posts.

… as well as previous Mad Scientist Laboratory content, exploring this aspect of the Operational Environment:

Challenging Reality: Chinese Cognitive Warfare and the Fight to Hack Your Brain, by Dr. John Ringquist 

A Katechon for the Cognitive Domain, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Kevin Williamson

In the Cognitive War – The Weapon is You! by Dr. Zac Rogers

An Intelligentized PLA: A FICINT Scenario for INDO-PACOM, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano

AI as a Propaganda Accelerant, by Aldrin Yashko

Influence at Machine Speed: The Coming of AI-Powered Propaganda by MAJ Chris Telley

The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology, by Raechel Melling

Damnatio Memoriae through AI and What is the Threshold? Assessing Kinetic Responses to Cyber-Attacks, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Marie Murphy

China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage, by Ian Sullivan

Information Advantage Contribution to Operational Success, by CW4 Charles Davis

Gaming Information Dominance and Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1) by Kate Kilgore

Sub-threshold Maneuver and the Flanking of U.S. National Security and Is Ours a Nation at War? U.S. National Security in an Evolved — and Evolving — Operational Environment, by Dr. Russell Glenn

The Erosion of National Will – Implications for the Future Strategist, by Dr. Nick Marsella

A House Divided: Microtargeting and the next Great American Threat, by 1LT Carlin Keally

Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far…, Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events, and all of this series’ associated videos 

Weaponized Information: One Possible Vignette and Three Best Information Warfare Vignettes

LikeWar — The Weaponization of Social Media

The Death of Authenticity: New Era Information Warfare

Active Defense: Shaping the Threat Environment and The Information Disruption Industry and the Operational Environment of the Future, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Vincent H. O’Neil , as well as his associated video presentation from 20 May 2020, part of the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events.

Non-Kinetic War, Global Entanglement and Multi-Reality Warfare and associated podcast, with COL Stefan Banach (USA-Ret.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of War, Department of the Army, or the U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command (T2COM).

[Editor’s Note:  Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory blog site know that wargaming is a vital cognitive tool for understanding the complexities of the evolving Operational Environment (OE). Wargaming helps facilitate “cognitive warfighting proficiencies” among its practitioners.  Unlike passive classroom lectures, wargames provide an immersive environment where Soldiers and Leaders can follow their ideas to their logical conclusions, test new concepts, and—crucially—experience failure in a safe, consequence-free setting. This “safe failure” is seen as essential for developing the creativity and agility required to avoid operational surprise on the actual battlefield.

Today’s episode of The Convergence podcast features COL Mike Barnett and returning proclaimed Mad Scientist Joe Chretien, both from the Sustainment Exercise and Simulation Directorate, Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM), Fort Lee, Virginia.  We discussed how they incorporated their Sinews of War: Theater Sustainment Operations wargame into Practical Exercises in the Sustainment Center of Excellence’s Programs of Instruction (POIs).  Read on to learn how wargaming is providing our Sustainment Soldiers and Leaders with fail-safe experiences to learn critical warfighting skills — enabling them to reflect on experiential, shared events with their peers during Professional Military Education (PME)].

[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]

Following 15 years in various Armor enlisted and officer assignments, COL Mike Barnett became a Functional Area 57, Models and Simulations (M&S) Officer in 2011.  He served as the Chief of Knowledge Management at the First Infantry Division and 8th Army, in both deployed and garrison operating environments.  COL Barnett is a graduate of the Command and General Staff College and the U. S. Army War College at Carlisle, Pennsylvania.  In his current assignment, COL Barnett leads the Sustainment Exercise and Simulation Directorate at Ft. Lee, Virginia, where he and his team support Army-wide sustainment simulations for Division, Corps, and Army Service Component Command collective command post training events.

Joe Chretien is a retired M&S Army Lieutenant Colonel who has served in multiple roles — including wargame developer and facilitator for the U.S. Army War College, where he incorporated experiential educational methodologies into the curriculum.  Of note, Mr. Chretien is the co-author of several Matrix Wargames such as Kaliningrad, One-Belt-One-Road, Crisis in the South China Sea, First Contact, and  Sinews of War: Theater Sustainment Operations.  He currently serves as a Department of the Army Civilian assigned as the Deputy Director, Logistics Exercise and Simulation Directorate (LESD) for the National Simulation Center.  He is responsible for managing, planning, organizing, and directing an authorized workforce of military and Department of the Army Civilians.  He additionally oversees contractor deliverables in support of the LESD mission.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sat down with COL Barnett and Mr. Chretien to talk about Sinews of War — a new game they designed to help teach and train Army Sustainers, their experience play testing it, and what they see as the future of wargaming in the Army.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation with them:

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for future insightful episodes of The Convergence podcast!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the T2COM G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1.0, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-1, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, 10 Things You Didn’t Know About the PLA,  and BiteSize China weekly topics.

Our Russia Landing Zone, including T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-2, How Russia Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations and the BiteSize Russia weekly topics.  If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023 and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.

Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE (including Russia’s war in Ukraine war since 2024 and other ongoing competitions and conflicts around the globe).  Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment Intelligence Posts.

Then review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content:

Seven Reflections of a “Red Commander” — Lessons Learned Playing the Adversary in DoD Wargames, Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check, and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

From Campus to Command: The William & Mary Wargaming Lab and associated podcast, with Luke Miller.

“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2)

Whipping Wargaming into NATO SHAPE and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist COL Arnel David

Wargaming: A Company-Grade Perspective, by CPT Spencer D. H. Bates

Taking the Golf Out of Gaming and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Sebastian Bae

Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associated podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Andrew Olson

Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat

Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox

Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)

Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges

Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast

>>>Announcement:  Annotate your calendars now — the Army Mad Scientist / William & Mary Great Power Competition & Conflict in an Age of Authoritarian Collusion Virtual Event, on Tuesday, 27JAN26:

Who:  The Army Mad Scientist Initiative and William & Mary’s Whole of Government Center of Excellence

What:  A virtual event exploring the Operational Environment implications of emerging trends gleaned from contemporary conflicts and proxy wars, as well as the expanding adversarial influence and presence in the Global South and polar regions, through the lens of authoritarian collusion

When:  Tuesday, 27 January 2026

Where:  Virtual via Zoom.gov; in-person on campus for local T2COM G-2 and FCC participants

Why:  To learn from subject matter experts within academia and the Department of War about the implications of authoritarian collusion, ultimately expanding our understanding of the Operational Environment

Register to attend this informative event virtually at our EventBrite site.

>>>Reminder:  Army Mad Scientist is CALLING ALL CREATORS with our Multi-Media Contest for imaginative thinkers who seek to showcase their ideas about Army Transformation in novel, alternative ways. Check out the contest’s guidelines here, consult your inner muse, unleash your creative talent, get cracking developing your entry, and submit it to [email protected] — Deadline for submission is 14 February 2026!

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or the Transformation and Training Command (T2COM).

[Editor’s Note:  Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society co-hosted our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference at Georgetown University, Washington, DC, last November, exploring:

Attended by approximately 150 participants, with an additional 20-odd virtual participants live streaming it remotely, the conference facilitated an open dialogue with wargamers from both inside and outside the military (e.g., professional, commercial, and hobbyist gamers).

At that conference, we hosted a Gen Z & Wargaming Round Table for the sizeable contingent of students attending the conference from Georgetown University, the University of Nebraska Omaha, and the College of William & Mary. 

Today’s episode of The Convergence podcast features Luke Miller, who attended our conference last year, is a wargame designer, and is this academic year’s Director of the William & Mary Wargaming Lab.  Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Miller to discuss the role of wargaming and the university’s on-going wargaming projects with the War Department, his thoughts on wargame design and education in the military, and the future of wargaming — Read on!]

[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]

Luke Miller is an undergraduate student at the College of William and Mary, studying International Relations and Economics.  During the Summer of 2024, he was an e-Intern with the TRADOC G-2, where he researched national security threats to the U.S. and proposed solutions for Army adaptation to emerging challenges.  Specifically, Mr. Miller conducted focused research on U.S. Army preparedness for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan.  Mr. Miller is also a member of The Alexander Hamilton Society, a Global Scholar with the William & Mary Global Research Institute, and game designer and now Director of the William and Mary Wargaming Lab.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sat down with Luke Miller to discuss the value of wargaming as part of higher education, designing games for both students and defense partners, and emulating an accurate and realistic red team.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next insightful episode of The Convergence on 02 October 2025!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.

Our Russia Landing Zone, including How Russia Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations and the BiteSize Russia weekly topics.  If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.

Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE.  Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Then review the following related Mad Scientist content:

From Data to Dominance: AI & Gaming to Create Decision Advantage and associated podcast, with Jonathan Pan

“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2)

The agenda, presenter and panelist biographies, their respective presentations, and associated videos from Army Mad Scientist’s  Game On! Wargaming & the OE Conference at Georgetown University, 06-07 November 2024, as well as the Report from Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, 06-07 November 2024

Battle Tested: Revolutionizing Wargaming with AI and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

“I think there’s a moral question that one has to ask in general about whether it’s appropriate for a machine to make a decision as to whether or not a human ought to live or die”

[Editor’s Note:  As observed in TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations:

“The increase in the production, employment, and success of uncrewed systems means the Army can expect to encounter these systems across the breadth and depth of LSCO.”

Contemporary conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East have witnessed the burgeoning use of autonomous weapons — empowering lesser states (i.e., Ukraine) and non-state actors (i.e., the Houthi Movement in Yemen) to conduct asymmetric strikes against nations with more robust military capabilities (i.e., Russia and Israel, respectively).  These capabilities are transforming warfighting in both the air/land and land/sea littoral, eroding and possibly negating traditional concepts of air and naval superiority.  The battlefield successes achieved using these autonomous technologies has led to them being rapidly proliferated around the globe, with Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCO) like the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) effectively employing armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) against both their criminal competitors and the Mexican authorities alike.

In the ongoing race to develop more effective (read lethal) combat systems capable of overcoming kinetic and electromagnetic countermeasures, some nations are integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Vision (MV) with Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) — in essence removing human operators from within or on the OODA loop.  U.S. policy on LAWS is documented in DoD Directive 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, which includes the following statement:

“Autonomous and semi-autonomous weapon systems will be designed to allow commanders and operators to exercise appropriate levels of human judgment over the use of force.”

Per the U.S. Congress’s Defense Primer: U.S. Policy on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems:

“U.S. policy does not prohibit the development or employment of LAWS. Although the United States is not known to currently have LAWS in its inventory, some senior military and defense leaders have stated that the United States may be compelled to develop LAWS if U.S. competitors choose to do so. At the same time, a growing number of states and nongovernmental organizations are appealing to the international community for regulation of or a ban on LAWS due to ethical concerns.”

Today’s episode of The Convergence podcast features Dr. Mark Bailey, Department Chair, Cyber Intelligence and Data Science, National Intelligence University, exploring the tension that exists between the rapid convergence of AI and battlefield autonomy and our national values requiring transparency and oversight in our use of lethal force.  With this tension, there is also an associated asymmetry in ethics — our adversaries are racing ahead with their plans to harness the power of AI on the battlefield.  Military thinkers within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) embrace its prospects as a leapfrog technology that could allow China to skip technological development stages and rapidly overmatch U.S. capabilities.  Russia’s Vladimir Putin proclaimed “Artificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia but of all of mankind… Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.”  Read on to learn more about the implications of LAWS in the Operational Environment!]  

Dr. Mark Bailey writes about the intersection between artificial intelligence, complexity, and national security.  He is an associate professor at the National Intelligence University, where he is the Department Chair for Cyber Intelligence and Data Science, as well as the Director of the Biological and Computational Intelligence Center.  His work has appeared in publications such as the journal Futures, Nautilus, and Homeland Security Today, and he was named to Homeland’s 50 Trailblazers of 2023.  Previously, he worked as a data scientist on several AI programs in the U.S. Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community.  He is also an Officer in the U.S. Army Reserve. 

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Dr. Bailey to discuss his thoughts on AI and autonomous weapons, how their rise is impacting the U.S. Army, and how our adversaries may be poised to use them against us.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next insightful episode of The Convergence on 11 September 2025, when we sit down with Luke Miller, Director of the College of William and Mary’s Wargaming Lab, to discuss the university’s on-going wargaming projects with the DoD, his thoughts on wargame design and education in the military, and the future of wargaming.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.

Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE.  Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Then review the following related TRADOC G-2 and Mad Scientist Laboratory content:

Adaptation… Ukraine Conflict’s UAV Evolution, by Colin Christopher

Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps, by Dr. Nathan White

On the Ground and In the Air in Ukraine, and associated podcast with Wolfgang Hagarty

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Learning from LSCO: Applying Lessons to Irregular Conflict, by Ian Sullivan and Kate Kilgore

Asymmetric Warfare across Multiple Domains, by Ethan Sah

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night,” as well as Former Deputy Secretary of Defense and proclaimed Mad Scientist Mr. Bob Work‘s presentation from the Disruption and the Future Operational Environment Conference on AI and Future Warfare: The Rise of the Robots (and Army Futures Command), and his Modern War Institute podcast assessing the future battlefield.

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS

Death From Above! The Evolution of sUAS Technology and associated podcast, with COL Bill Edwards (USA-Ret.)

The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist COL John Antal (USA-Ret.)

Jomini’s Revenge: Mass Strikes Back! by proclaimed Mad Scientist Zachery Tyson Brown

Insights from the Robotics and Autonomy Series of Virtual Events, as well as all of the associated webinar content (presenter biographies, slide decks, and notes) and associated videos

Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat and its associated podcast

“Intelligentization” and a Chinese Vision of Future War

The PLA and UAVs – Automating the Battlefield and Enhancing Training

A Chinese Perspective on Future Urban Unmanned Operations

China: “New Concepts” in Unmanned Combat and Cyber and Electronic Warfare

The PLA: Close Combat in the Information Age and the “Blade of Victory”

“Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel, by Ian Sullivan.

Rapid Adaptation

Turkey and the TB-2: A Rising Drone Superpower and its associated podcast, with Karen Kaya

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  As observed in TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations:

“LSCO will be marked by the democratization and proliferation of advanced technologies and hyperconnected global communications, creating an increasingly transparent battlefield that makes it difficult to hide from the enemy.”

Today’s The Convergence podcast features Jason Feser from the U.S. Army Geospatial Center exploring just how transparent the contemporary battlefield has become.  With the convergence of sensing technologies, democratized space, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML), this capability is empowering our Soldiers with a granular situational awareness of the Operational Environment, down to an eight-digit (plus!) grid reference.  Modern LSCO is now a competition between the hiders and the finders — if a target can be seen, it can be killed!  Our adversaries have similar sensing capabilities — but in the contemporary Operational Environment, warfare favors those who can innovate tactically.  The tactical advantage offered by this granular level of battlefield transparency is lost if it can’t be shared with and used by Warfighters at the bleeding edge of the fight — Read on!]

CW4 Jason Feser (USA-Ret.) currently serves as Branch Chief for Data Generation and Production, Warfighter Support Division, within the U.S. Army Geospatial Center (AGC).  In this role, Mr. Feser oversees a staff of civilians and contractors that enable geospatial data collection, processing, and dissemination to the U.S. Army’s generating and operating force.  Mr. Feser is responsible for three critical product lines to meet the Army’s requirements for digital mapping and geospatial analysis for customers at all echelons — the AGC’s Engineer Route Study, Regional Terrain Planner, and Urban Tactical Planner.  This includes updating the production pipelines, managing Army Geospatial Engineer Teams, and leveraging capabilities and tools found within the broader U.S. Army Corps of Engineer Research Development Centers and Joint Communities.

Prior to joining the AGC as a civilian, Mr. Feser spent 27 years in the Army as a Geospatial Engineer and Geospatial Engineering Technician, before retiring in 2019.  Mr. Feser spent over fifteen years at the tactical level before moving on to Joint and Strategic assignments.  His assignments included serving in multiple Engineer Brigade Headquarters in Heavy Divisions; a Branch Chief in the IDG at JAC Molesworth; NATO Special Operations Intel Branch at the NATO Intel Fusion Center; Senior Geospatial Officer and Commander at the 512th Geospatial Planning Cell; and Military Advisor to the AGC Director.  Mr. Feser’s career included deployments to Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, and Jordan.  He holds an Undergraduate degree in Applied Science, with an Emphasis in Geospatial Information Systems, and he has completed professional military technical training throughout his career.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Feser to explore the AGC, the role advanced technologies play in battlefield transparency, and our adversaries’ capabilities to observe and sense the Operational Environment.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next insightful episode of The Convergence on 28 August 2025, when we sit down with Dr. Mark Bailey, Department Chair, Cyber Intelligence and Data Science, National Intelligence University, and author of Unknowable Minds: Philosophical Insights on AI and Autonomous Weapons. We’ll talk with Dr. Bailey about the “black box” implications of AI, the legality and ethics of autonomous weapons, and how our adversaries are approaching and responding to these same issues.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.

Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE.  Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Then check out the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory blog post content:

Nowhere to Hide: Information Exploitation and Sanitization and War Laid Bare, by Matthew Ader

Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target, by Team Sullivan’s Travels

Integrated Sensors: The Critical Element in Future Complex Environment Warfare, by Dr. Richard Nabors

The Future of Ground Warfare, and associated podcast

Timeless Competitions

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC)

“Agentic warfare is here, whether we welcome it or not. The era of military planners manually gathering limited data and compiling static crisis response options on briefing slides is over.  In the next few years, the defense community will see the emergence of AI agents representing military planners, logisticians, intelligence officers, and operators that harness centuries of stored experience in real-time digital collaboration, generating uniquely effective crisis solutions for human decision-makers in seconds….  First-mover advantage in leveraging this capability will not merely ensure battlefield dominance — it will be overwhelmingly decisive at every level of warfare.  It could herald the dawn of a new defense paradigm, supplanting the outdated defense-industrial complex with an agile, AI-driven agentic base.  The stakes could not be higher….” —  Agentic Warfare Is Here. Will America Be the First Mover? War on the Rocks, 23 April 2025.

[Editor’s Note:  The article cited above predicts that agentic capabilities — i.e., those Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems that can operate independently, making decisions and executing actions without constant human supervision — when “employed by [our] adversaries… will dramatically outperform traditional Western paradigms of 24- to 72-hour decision cycles and wartime initiative.”  While not specifically using the term “agentic warfare,” today’s The Convergence podcast features Jonathan Pan describing how this capability could accelerate the Army’s Military Decision Making Process (MDMP), enabling us to achieve decision advantage and fight at machine speed — Enjoy!]

Jonathan Pan is the co-founder and CEO of Exia Labs, a defense technology startup.  Exia’s products include Blue, an Army brigade decision support tool, and Recon, an Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment Artificial Intelligence (AI) agent.  Prior to founding Exia, Mr. Pan was Senior Director of Product Management at the innovation unit of Walmart, where he led AI projects focused on shopping search and immersive shopping.  He also led product and content teams at Amazon, Meta, and Riot Games, and served as an advisor for the SXSW Conference Internet and Gaming tracks between 2017 – 2022.

Prior to joining industry, Mr. Pan served in the U.S. Army, beginning his career as a platoon leader in the 2nd Infantry Division in the Republic of Korea.  He deployed to Afghanistan as part of 5th Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division.  After leaving active duty, he briefly served in the New York Army National Guard’s 1st Battalion, 69th Infantry Regiment.  His awards and decorations include the Bronze Star Medal, the Combat Infantryman Badge, the Expert Infantryman Badge, and the Parachutist Badge.  He continues his service in the Army as a civilian Army Reserve Ambassador for the state of Washington, where he focuses on increasing awareness of the United States Army Reserve among local communities, civic leaders, and state legislators, with the goal of enhancing support for the Army Reserve, its personnel, and their families.  

Mr. Pan is also a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, where he conducts research on the intersection of artificial intelligence and wargames.  He has a Master of Business Administration from New York University and received a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Baruch College, City University of New York.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Pan to discuss the impact of AI on achieving decision advantage and explore how our adversaries are innovating in this space.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next insightful episode of The Convergence on 14 August 2025, when we sit down with Jason Feser, Data Generation and Production Branch Chief at the Army Geospatial Center, to discuss the importance of Geospatial Analysis, how emerging technologies are being integrated into this field, and how our adversaries are incorporating this capability into how they fight.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.

Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE.  Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Then check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory blog post related content addressing the transformative power of AI:

Winning the Future: The U.S. Military’s Need for Technological Dominance and Defined Strategic Vision, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano and Elise Annett

Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox

Beyond Venture Capital: How the Government is Investing in Innovation, and associated podcast, with Murali Kannan and Coley Lewis

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Report from Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, 06-07 November 2024

“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2)

Battle Tested: Revolutionizing Wargaming with AI and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry

Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges and Generative AI: The New Ammunition in the Data Arms Race and associated podcast, with Ben Van Roo

Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Biological-Chemical Warfare, by Jared Kite

Training Transformed: AI and the Future Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Kyle J. Kramer

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with  Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC

Rise of Artificial Intelligence: Implications to the Fielded Force, by John W. Mabes III

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps

Gen Z is Likely to Build Trusting Relationships with AI, by COL Derek Baird

Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast, with LTC Robert Solano

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas

The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi

Bias and Machine Learning

An Appropriate Level of Trust…

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory understand the transformative potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have on the character of warfare — for a comprehensive list of previously published blog posts and podcasts exploring the potential application of these technologies across the Operational Environment, scroll to the bottom of this post and explore the content associated with each of the associated links.

Today’s The Convergence podcast features two senior leaders from In-Q-Tel (IQT) discussing how their not-for-profit company is accelerating the introduction of groundbreaking technologies to facilitate innovation within the Department of Defense (DoD) and the Intelligence Community (IC), enhancing the national security and prosperity of the United States and its Allies — Enjoy!]

Murali Kannan leads Enterprise Technologies at In-Q-Tel (IQT) as Vice President and Practice Lead, where he directs investment strategy for enterprise data infrastructure, generative AI applications, and AI-enabled vertical solutions. Working closely with venture partners and government stakeholders, he identifies and invests in innovative startups addressing critical national security challenges for the U.S. and allied intelligence and national security communities.

Prior to joining IQT, Murali built his expertise at Accenture, Mythics, and GDIT, where he spearheaded teams delivering transformative data analytics initiatives across commercial and government sectors. His educational background combines business acumen with technical expertise, including an MBA from MIT Sloan, a Master’s from Northeastern, specialized certifications from Georgetown and Columbia, and leadership training from Harvard Business School.

Coley Lewis’ career at IQT spans over 10 years and he has served in various capacities over his tenure. He currently serves as Vice President of Growth Partnerships, where he leads a team responsible for the identification, development, and execution of new partnerships within the national security community. Coley sets the growth strategy for IQT and works across IQT teams to successfully onboard new partners and maximize impact to mission.

Prior to joining IQT, Coley was the Senior Policy & Management Analyst for the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri (USDC-MOED), where he led data analytics for the Clerk’s Office, particularly the collection, analysis, and reporting of judicial business.  Lewis holds a bachelor’s degree in history from Truman State University and a master’s degree in public administration from Saint Louis University.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with Messrs. Kannan and Lewis to discuss IQT’s mission and history, explore how it is helping the Government foster innovation, and obtain their insights regarding the boom of LLMs permeating the Federal Government.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for future insightful episodes of The Convergence.

  If you enjoyed this post, review the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.

Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE.  Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Then read the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content addressing the transformative power of AI — spanning the gamut of potential applications:

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Battle Tested: Revolutionizing Wargaming with AI and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry

Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges and Generative AI: The New Ammunition in the Data Arms Race and associated podcast, with Ben Van Roo

Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Biological-Chemical Warfare, by Jared Kite

Training Transformed: AI and the Future Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Kyle J. Kramer

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with  Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC

Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox

Rise of Artificial Intelligence: Implications to the Fielded Force, by John W. Mabes III

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps

Gen Z is Likely to Build Trusting Relationships with AI, by COL Derek Baird

Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast, with LTC Robert Solano

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas

The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi

Bias and Machine Learning

An Appropriate Level of Trust…

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes back proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry, Professor of Emerging Technology at the U.S. Army War College, to discuss his latest innovation — an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled digital war game.  We tested this capability with two of the TRADOC G-2’s most experienced wargamers to get their thoughts on how it performed and its potential to democratize access to wargaming and potentially revolutionize Army training and strategic planning — Read on!]

Dr. Billy Barry is a Professor of Emerging Technology and Principal Strategist of the Artificial Intelligence/Intelligence Augmentation (AI/IA) Program for the Center for Strategic Leadership at the United States Army War College.  Before working at the Army War College, Dr. Barry was a visiting professor of Philosophy and Just War Theory at the United States Military Academy at West Point.  A pioneer in Human-AI/Intelligent Augmentation (IA) teams, he is the first to introduce AI-powered IA androids, robots, digital virtual beings, and strategic advisors as teaching and learning partners in civilian university and Professional Military Education classrooms.  A sought-after TEDx and international keynote speaker, Dr. Barry’s influence extends to Fortune 500 companies and global leadership symposiums and conferences.  His current research interest centers on non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, driving the conversation on ethical technology interactions.  His contributions to academia and industry establish him as a leading authority on the future of human relationships with emerging technology.   

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Dr. Billy Barry visited TRADOC to demonstrate his custom-made digital war game using his new Deterministic Constraint Processing (DCP) idea.  Seasoned TRADOC G-2 wargamers Kate Kilgore and Dorsel “Flip” Boyer II tested several scenarios of Dr. Barry’s wargame and provide their insightful feedback regarding how this tool could be used by the Army.  The following bullet points highlight the key insights from this conversation.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 10 April 2025. 

If you enjoyed this post, review the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE.  Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, 4QFY24, and 1QFY25 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Then check out the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content exploring wargaming…

Report from Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, 06-07 November 2024

Seven Reflections of a “Red Commander” — Lessons Learned Playing the Adversary in DoD Wargames, by Ian Sullivan

Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox

“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2)

Whipping Wargaming into NATO SHAPE and associated podcast, with COL Arnel David

Wargaming: A Company-Grade Perspective, by CPT Spencer D. H. Bates

Taking the Golf Out of Gaming and associated podcast, with Sebastian Bae

Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associated podcast with Andrew Olson

Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat

Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)

Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges

The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY

Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast

… and the transformative power of AI — spanning the gamut of potential applications:

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges and Generative AI: The New Ammunition in the Data Arms Race and associated podcast, with Ben Van Roo

Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Biological-Chemical Warfare, by Jared Kite

Training Transformed: AI and the Future Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Kyle J. Kramer

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with  Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC

Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox

Rise of Artificial Intelligence: Implications to the Fielded Force, by John W. Mabes III

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps

Gen Z is Likely to Build Trusting Relationships with AI, by COL Derek Baird

Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast, with LTC Robert Solano

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast

The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas

The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi

Bias and Machine Learning

An Appropriate Level of Trust…

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

“The hope is that we can begin to profile what the capabilities of the jammer are that we’re seeing out in the field with enough measurements from enough devices”

[Editor’s Note:  In last week’s post, Sherman L. Barto posited a fictional intelligence (FICINT) scenario detailing China’s swift victory over Taiwan and the United States — achieved in part by the People’s Liberation Army’s use of

“… jam-resistant swarms utiliz[ing] permissioned blockchain encryption and … onboard AI adjust[ing] Software Defined Radio (SDR) receivers in real time to ignore interference that does not transmit with proper encryption and authentication.  The loss of GNSS satellite navigation was assumed by PLA military planners and is replaced with a ship-based Long Range Navigation (LORAN) system providing the location of the three PLAN aircraft carriers to UAVs which is then paired with UAV computer vision trained on detailed maps of Taiwan to recognize where they are.  Each UAV transmits a location tag every second to each adjacent node in the swarm, enabling precision location within 20 meters.  The one pulse per second geolocation tags perform double duty as a network timing protocol, ensuring all PLA networks remain in synch despite the loss of GNSS timing.”

A U.S. Army maneuver Brigade Combat Team (BCT) has over 2,500 pieces of equipment dependent on space-based assets for Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) — precision strikes and the convergence of massed fires depend on accurate and resilient PNT data.  However, as we’ve seen in Russia’s on-going war in Ukraine, access to this PNT data is increasingly being disrupted or spoofed by Electronic Warfare (EW) jammers.

Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes Dr. Sean Gorman, CEO and co-founder of Zephr.xyz, to discuss how his company is “crowdsourcing [GPS] measurements across a bunch of phones to get a better version of reality by looking at more satellites and getting more measurements.”  Zephr is also harnessing this capability as a counter-EW jamming capability, turning everyone with a cellphone into a sensor to detect, identify, catalog, and locate these emitters.  These capabilities, conceptually proven in Ukraine, may soon be tested in Taiwan against our most capable adversary — the People’s Liberation Army — Enjoy!]

Sean Gorman is the CEO and co-founder of Zephr.xyz, a developer of next-gen networked positioning technologies.  Gorman has a more than 20-year background as a researcher, entrepreneur, academic, and subject matter expert in the field of geospatial data science and its national security implications.  He is the former engineering manager for Snap’s Map team, former Chief Strategist for ESRI’s DC Development Center, founder of Pixel8earth, GeoIQ, and Timbr.io, and held other senior positions at Maxar and iXOL.  Gorman served as a subject matter expert for the Department of Homeland Security’s Critical Infrastructure Task Force and Homeland Security Advisory Council, and he’s been awarded eight patents.  He is also a former research professor at George Mason University.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with Dr. Sean Gorman to discuss countering Russian Electronic Warfare (EW) jammers, how he came to work with the Ukrainian military, and commercial solutions in a Global Positioning System (GPS)-denied environment.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.

 Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 27 Mar 2025, when Army Mad Scientist sits down with returning guest Dr. Billy Barry to discuss his latest invention — an AI-enabled digital wargame!  We tested this capability with two of the most experienced TRADOC G-2 wargamers and get their thoughts on how it performed.

If you enjoyed this post, check out TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations, laying out the 12 LSCO Conditions and 5 LSCO Implications of the Operational Environment, several of which expand on aspects of this podcast and blog post (e.g., Transparent Battlefield and Mass vs. Precision).

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, 4QFY24, and 1QFY25 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Then review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content addressing PNT, EW, and the transparent battlefield:

LSCO, PNT, and the Space Domain, by CPT Matthew R. Bigelow

Space: Challenges and Opportunities

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1), by Kate Kilgore

Operation Northeast Monsoon: The Reunification of Taiwan

China: “New Concepts” in Unmanned Combat and Cyber and Electronic Warfare

Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target

Warfare in the Parallel Cambrian Age, by Chris O’Connor

Disclaimer:  The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes back Ben Van Roo, recent author of our Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges blog post, to continue our exploration of the transformative potential of Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI) — specifically its ability to democratize access across the U.S. Army to the vast reservoirs of Operational Environment information.  In ingesting all of the OE Data Integration Network’s (ODIN) content — including the Worldwide Equipment Guide (WEG), Decisive Action Training Environment (DATE) and accompanying Force Structures, the Army Techniques Publication (ATP) 7-100 series, and the Training Circular (TC) 7-100 series — Gen AI offers the potential to respond to conversational queries from individual Soldiers with the TRADOC G-2’s aggregated and authoritative OE knowledge.  Operationally, Gen AI could also help accelerate the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act) loop, the intelligence cycle, and even kill chains — powerful stuff, indeed…. Read on!]

Ben Van Roo is the Co-Founder and CEO of Yurts, a generative AI company partnering with the U.S. Department of Defense to advance mission-critical systems.  He holds a PhD in Operations Research and has significant experience developing AI solutions for defense and national security applications.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with Ben Van Roo to discuss Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI) models, how they can be  integrated into secure networks, and how TRADOC can use them to enhance Army training.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.

If you enjoyed this post, check out Ben Van Roo‘s previous Mad Scientist Laboratory post — Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges

Read TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, 4QFY24, and 1QFY25 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Then review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content exploring the transformative power of AI — spanning the gamut of potential applications:

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Biological-Chemical Warfare, by Jared Kite

Training Transformed: AI and the Future Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Kyle J. Kramer

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC

Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox

Rise of Artificial Intelligence: Implications to the Fielded Force, by John W. Mabes III

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with  Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC

Gen Z is Likely to Build Trusting Relationships with AI, by COL Derek Baird

Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast, with LTC Robert Solano

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast

The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas

The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi

Bias and Machine Learning

An Appropriate Level of Trust…

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

Disclaimer:  The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).