President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August 2025, claiming without evidence that the agency's data were "rigged." One consequence of the firing was an erosion of trust in data that businesses, investors, and policymakers depend on. A recent paper (https://www.nber.org/papers/w35135) quantifies the cost of this erosion of trust, estimating that Commissioner McEntarfer's firing shrunk GDP by almost $20 billion, and reduced payroll employment by over 30,000 jobs. Two of the paper's co-authors, Erica Groshen and Michael Strain, join EconoFact Chats to discuss their findings, and more broadly, to highlight why it's extremely difficult for agencies to "rig" statistics, as well as what happens when elected officials undermine public trust in data.

Erica served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2013 to 2017 and is currently Senior Economics Advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Michael is Director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute.