In 1860, the United States had no national currency, no national bank, and no income tax. Lincoln had a vision of advancing the economic fortunes of the country and fostering greater economic equality through, for example, incentivizing railroads and creating land-grant universities. He and his Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase also faced the challenge of financing the hugely expensive Civil War.  This week on EconoFact Chats, Roger Lowenstein describes how Lincoln and Chase revolutionized the role of the federal government, played a crucial part in the Union Army’s victory, and helped forge a national identity – a story that offers a mirror to the current debates over the role of government in building infrastructure and financing higher education as well as the burden of the national debt.

Roger reported for The Wall Street Journal for more than a decade. This interview draws from his just-published book Ways and Means: Lincoln and His Cabinet and the Financing of the Civil War.

Note: This podcast was first posted on 13th March 2022.

When does a fiscal challenge become a fiscal problem? And at what point can that problem turn into a full blown crisis? As the federal debt held by the public reaches 100% of GDP, a level the US has seen only once before, at the end of World War II, these questions take on greater importance. Drawing on a new EconoFact Explainer (https://econofact.org/explainer/federal-debt-and-the-risk-of-a-fiscal-crisis), Doug Elmendorf, former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how U.S. government finances became a problem, what this means for the broader economy, and what prospects there are for reducing government debt.

Doug is a Distinguished Service Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Oil prices have eased since the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, but remain above pre-war levels. At 4.2%, inflation is at its highest level since 2023. The federal debt has now grown larger than national income, while Social Security's trustees warn of insolvency within seven years. At the same time, the S&P has risen 17% since March. Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Larry Edelman of The Boston Globe, Scott Horsley of NPR, and Claire Jones of the Financial Times join EconoFact Chats to make sense of these crosscurrents, discussing whether the affordability squeeze will ease, how the new Fed chair could steer interest rates, whether 'bond market vigilantes' could check fiscal and monetary indiscipline, and what it would take to rein in housing costs.

While the best trade war strategy is to not have a trade war, this seems to no longer be an option. In their new book 'How to Win a Trade War' the goal of Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown is to “… arm you with the knowledge to fight [because] these battles are going to last for a very long time.” Soumaya and Chad join EconoFact Chats to discuss the effects of the rise of China in the world trading system, the policy approaches taken by the United States, the European Union, and other countries, the role of multinational corporations, the intersection of trade and national security, and the efficacy of defensive policies (like limiting dependence on foreign goods) and offensive strategies (like tariffs).

Soumaya Keynes is an economics columnist at the Financial Times and host of The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes. Chad Bown is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and served as Chief Economist at the State Department in the Biden administration.

Close to one in five Americans are over 65, double the ratio two decades ago. This is a consequence of both people living longer, and of declining fertility rates. Melissa Kearney joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the fall in fertility rates and to explain the challenges from these demographic shifts, including financial strains on Social Security and Medicare, shrinking local tax bases, and reduced business dynamism. She also highlights why immigration is only a partial fix, and why pro-natal policies like child tax credits are unlikely to meaningfully raise birth rates.

Melissa is the Gilbert F. Schaefer Professor of Economics at the University of Notre Dame, where she recently launched the Strengthening Families Research Initiative. She is also the Director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.

This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything Webinar with Binyamin Appelbaum. The discussion touched on a range of issues, including whether AI will prove labor-enhancing or labor-replacing, how a shrinking immigrant workforce will affect a labor market already facing a crunch, why oil markets are seemingly underpricing supply shocks, and whether the central bank can maintain its independence in the face of mounting political pressure to lower interest rates.

Binyamin is the lead writer on economics and business for the New York Times editorial board, and the author of The Economists' Hour.

EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to Premium Subscribers. The $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber helps EconoFact bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription here: https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157

Billy Pizer discusses how energy security goes beyond the price of oil or liquified natural gas since these prices do not fully capture all the costs of using fossil fuels. One well-known externality, a cost beyond the price at the pump, is global warming and the corresponding climate-related disasters like the 2025 Palisades fire in California or the devastation in North Carolina from Hurricane Helene in 2024. Billy points out that there are other costs as well, including macroeconomic vulnerability from spiking oil prices and the risks associated with the tilting of political and military decisions due to energy needs. He also explains that climate change poses threats to those banks and parts of the financial system that have assets concentrated in places vulnerable to extreme weather events.

Billy is the President and CEO of Resources for the Future, a think tank focused on energy and the environment. He previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environment and Energy at the US Treasury.

President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August 2025, claiming without evidence that the agency's data were "rigged." One consequence of the firing was an erosion of trust in data that businesses, investors, and policymakers depend on. A recent paper (https://www.nber.org/papers/w35135) quantifies the cost of this erosion of trust, estimating that Commissioner McEntarfer's firing shrunk GDP by almost $20 billion, and reduced payroll employment by over 30,000 jobs. Two of the paper's co-authors, Erica Groshen and Michael Strain, join EconoFact Chats to discuss their findings, and more broadly, to highlight why it's extremely difficult for agencies to "rig" statistics, as well as what happens when elected officials undermine public trust in data.

Erica served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2013 to 2017 and is currently Senior Economics Advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Michael is Director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute.

With the delinking of the dollar from gold in 1971 -- the so called 'Nixon shock' -- there were widespread doubts about how long the dollar could retain its international dominance. More than half a century later, the dollar remains the world's dominant currency. But for how long will it continue to reign supreme? Barry Eichengreen draws on his new book, 'Money Beyond Borders: From Croesus to Crypto,' to discuss what history reveals about the preconditions for global currency status, why dominant currencies can lose that status, and whether the forces that have sustained the dollar's role -- inertia, network effects, and the absence of a clear alternative -- are weakening in an era of digital payment systems, blockchain, and central bank digital currencies.

Barry is Distinguished Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. His previous book, 'Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar,' was shortlisted for the Financial Times Book of the Year Award.

As the use of AI in finance becomes more pervasive -- in trading algorithms and credit underwriting, to insurance claims processing -- what benefits and risks do these systems pose? Gary Gensler joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how AI is lowering costs and broadening access to financial services, but also creating new challenges around explainability, bias, and accuracy.

Gary is Professor of the Practice of Global Economics and Management as well as of Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He served as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Along with Simon Johnson, he hosts the podcast Power and Consequences.