EconoFact Chats

How much of one's income is it fair for the state to tax? And what should the state spend that money on? In his new book, 'The State and Your Hard-Earned Money,' Paolo Mauro argues that policy choices regarding public expenditure and taxation, implicitly or explicitly, reflect moral points of view. He joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his book, highlighting how the role of the state has evolved in response to economic transformations and changing notions of good government, how “universalist” and “communitarian” moral outlooks shape current fiscal debates — and where the two perspectives might find common ground.

Paolo is Director of the Development Impact Measurement Department at the International Finance Corporation.

The US ran a budget deficit of $1.9 trillion in 2026 -- nearly 6% of GDP. Ongoing deficits have led to publicly-held federal debt rising to almost 100% of GDP, with Congressional Budget Office projections showing it rising to 120% by 2036. 

Recent policy changes have affected some of the more vulnerable people in the United States, including those who rely on Medicaid for their health insurance, people who are retired or disabled and get by month-to-month with their Social Security benefits, and workers whose income includes tips or overtime pay. What are the effects of Medicaid and Social Security on people’s economic security and well-being and what is the long-run prospect for these programs? Who benefits from tax breaks on tips and overtime and what are the fiscal costs? This week’s EconoFact Chats episode is an abridged version of a webinar, co-hosted with The Journalist’s Resource, that featured Gopi Shah Goda of the Brookings Institution, Mark Shepard of the Harvard Kennedy School, and Bill Gentry of Williams College.

In 1958, Eastman Kodak advertised openings for chemical engineers, accountants, and lawyers, but only for men, while women were asked to apply for jobs as secretaries or stenographers. The 1964 Civil Rights Act outlawed such ads. Yet, firms that expressed a stronger preference for hiring men before the law still had significantly higher shares of male workers in 1995. Lisa Kahn joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how the labor market for women has evolved since the civil rights era, what her recent research reveals about the remarkably persistent effects of employers’ pre-civil rights gender preferences, and what policies could help close the remaining gender wage gaps.

Lisa is the Helen F. and Fred H. Gowen Professor in the Social Sciences and Professor of Economics at the University of Rochester. She previously served as a senior economist on President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Do online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket provide a service beyond the entertainment of gambling? Prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the same agency that oversees futures contracts. Is this agency well-positioned to serve this role and guard against insider trading and market manipulation? And what should policy be towards online prediction markets? Futures contracts help companies and people hedge against risks. What is the social value of guessing the designer of Taylor Swift’s wedding dress, or of guessing which countries the President will mention in a given month? Gary Gensler joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.

Gary is Professor of the Practice of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He previously served as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

In July, the US Treasury joined Japanese authorities in a joint intervention to prop up the yen -- the first US action in support of the yen since 1998. Maurice Obstfeld joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why the intervention reflects the pursuit of conflicting goals -- strengthening the yen, even as US tariffs weaken it, claiming a strong-dollar policy while pursuing currency interventions that weaken the dollar, and championing the dollar's reserve role while treating foreign sales of Treasuries as a problem. He also contrasts the openly political support for Argentina's peso with the strictly non-political criteria that have governed Fed swap lines -- and why a request from the UAE puts that distinction to the test.

Maury is a Professor of Economics at UC Berkeley and a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He served as Chief Economist at the IMF from 2015 to 2018.

Since EconoFact Chats last hosted a panel of economic journalists in June, oil supply disruptions due to the war in Iran have kept gasoline prices high. Inflation reached 3.4% in August. In response, the Fed raised its policy interest rate for the first time in over three years. There have also been renewed trade tensions, especially with Canada, while fears about the economic impact of artificial intelligence persist.

Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Larry Edelman of The Boston Globe, Scott Horsley of NPR, and Claire Jones of the Financial Times join EconoFact Chats once again to discuss these and other developments, and analyze how they might play out heading into the midterms.

Kenneth Kuttner joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how and why central banks are set up to be insulated from political pressure, and the economic consequences of a failure of central bank independence.

Ken is the Robert F. White Class of 1952 Professor of Economics at Williams College. He has also served as Assistant Vice President in the Research Departments of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Note: This podcast was first posted on 18th January 2026.

Artificial Intelligence has the potential to bring major economic changes, including raising productivity, widening inequality, and causing widespread job displacement. There are associated consequences for federal debt which is now historically high relative to national income. Could policy responses such as support for displaced workers, raising taxes on AI profits, or even government ownership of companies help reduce the projected rise in government debt and ameliorate the disruptions from this new technology? Louise Sheiner joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions, drawing on a recent paper she wrote with Karen Dynan and Douglas Elmendorf.

Louise is the Robert S. Kerr Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution and policy director for the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. She previously served at the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, and the Council of Economic Advisers.

Billy Pizer discusses how energy security goes beyond the price of oil or liquified natural gas since these prices do not fully capture all the costs of using fossil fuels. One well-known externality, a cost beyond the price at the pump, is global warming and the corresponding climate-related disasters like the 2025 Palisades fire in California or the devastation in North Carolina from Hurricane Helene in 2024. Billy points out that there are other costs as well, including macroeconomic vulnerability from spiking oil prices and the risks associated with the tilting of political and military decisions due to energy needs. He also explains that climate change poses threats to those banks and parts of the financial system that have assets concentrated in places vulnerable to extreme weather events.

Billy is the President and CEO of Resources for the Future, a think tank focused on energy and the environment. He previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environment and Energy at the US Treasury.

Note: This podcast was first posted on 24th May 2026.