EconoFact Chats

The price of oil has risen by over 40% since the start of the war with Iran, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz -- which sees roughly 20 million barrels of oil transit daily -- has come to a virtual halt. Past oil price spikes have driven inflation higher, and weakened economies worldwide. What do the current disruptions portend for oil markets, and global economic growth? How might these disruptions reshape energy production in the short run and the long run? David Victor joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.

David is a Distinguished Professor of innovation and public policy at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UC San Diego. He is also co-director of UCSD's Deep Decarbonization Initiative.

Note: This podcast was first posted on 15th March 2026.

In the face of tariffs, spiking oil prices, and heightened uncertainty, the US economy has shown surprising resilience. Part of the reason for this is continued consumption spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of national spending. But in this K-shaped economy, consumption spending has differed across the income distribution – the top 20% has had consumption growth of 4% while consumption by the rest of the population has been flat. Mark Zandi argues that this shows a fragility in the economy, especially since one source of upper-income spending is the rise in the stock market which itself is narrowly concentrated among AI stocks. He warns of potential risks facing the economy and why consumption, while resilient to this point, is tenuous.

Mark is the Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics.

Artificial Intelligence is widely seen as a transformative technology, and its effects are already being seen in stock prices, investment expenditures, and the need for electricity but, strikingly, not very much in labor markets - at least not yet. Jed Kolko joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why we haven't seen extensive labor market changes from AI, the prospects for worker displacement and the creation of new types of jobs, as well as changes in the supply of workers, as AI evolves and its adoption spreads.

Jed is a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Head of Macro Data Strategy at Rokos Capital Management. He served as Under Secretary for Economic Affairs at the U.S. Department of Commerce from 2022 to 2024.

Household wealth in the United States rose from about 270% of GDP in 1997 to roughly 465% by 2021. Some 96% of that increase accrued to households where the respondents were 55 or older. And within that group, nearly three quarters of the wealth increase went to the wealthiest 10% of households. As this wealth passes to heirs, much of it will likely never be taxed. John Sabelhaus joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how the erosion of the estate tax and provisions like the "step-up in basis" have created what he and co-author Bill Gale call "never-taxed income," and how reforming the taxation of wealth transfers could address both widening inequality and rising government debt.

John is a Senior Fellow in the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution. He previously served at the Federal Reserve Board and the Congressional Budget Office.

In 1860, the United States had no national currency, no national bank, and no income tax. Lincoln had a vision of advancing the economic fortunes of the country and fostering greater economic equality through, for example, incentivizing railroads and creating land-grant universities. He and his Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase also faced the challenge of financing the hugely expensive Civil War.  This week on EconoFact Chats, Roger Lowenstein describes how Lincoln and Chase revolutionized the role of the federal government, played a crucial part in the Union Army’s victory, and helped forge a national identity – a story that offers a mirror to the current debates over the role of government in building infrastructure and financing higher education as well as the burden of the national debt.

Roger reported for The Wall Street Journal for more than a decade. This interview draws from his just-published book Ways and Means: Lincoln and His Cabinet and the Financing of the Civil War.

Note: This podcast was first posted on 13th March 2022.

When does a fiscal challenge become a fiscal problem? And at what point can that problem turn into a full blown crisis? As the federal debt held by the public reaches 100% of GDP, a level the US has seen only once before, at the end of World War II, these questions take on greater importance. Drawing on a new EconoFact Explainer (https://econofact.org/explainer/federal-debt-and-the-risk-of-a-fiscal-crisis), Doug Elmendorf, former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how U.S. government finances became a problem, what this means for the broader economy, and what prospects there are for reducing government debt.

Doug is a Distinguished Service Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Oil prices have eased since the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, but remain above pre-war levels. At 4.2%, inflation is at its highest level since 2023. The federal debt has now grown larger than national income, while Social Security's trustees warn of insolvency within seven years. At the same time, the S&P has risen 17% since March. Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Larry Edelman of The Boston Globe, Scott Horsley of NPR, and Claire Jones of the Financial Times join EconoFact Chats to make sense of these crosscurrents, discussing whether the affordability squeeze will ease, how the new Fed chair could steer interest rates, whether 'bond market vigilantes' could check fiscal and monetary indiscipline, and what it would take to rein in housing costs.

Close to one in five Americans are over 65, double the ratio two decades ago. This is a consequence of both people living longer, and of declining fertility rates. Melissa Kearney joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the fall in fertility rates and to explain the challenges from these demographic shifts, including financial strains on Social Security and Medicare, shrinking local tax bases, and reduced business dynamism. She also highlights why immigration is only a partial fix, and why pro-natal policies like child tax credits are unlikely to meaningfully raise birth rates.

Melissa is the Gilbert F. Schaefer Professor of Economics at the University of Notre Dame, where she recently launched the Strengthening Families Research Initiative. She is also the Director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.

This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything Webinar with Binyamin Appelbaum. The discussion touched on a range of issues, including whether AI will prove labor-enhancing or labor-replacing, how a shrinking immigrant workforce will affect a labor market already facing a crunch, why oil markets are seemingly underpricing supply shocks, and whether the central bank can maintain its independence in the face of mounting political pressure to lower interest rates.

Binyamin is the lead writer on economics and business for the New York Times editorial board, and the author of The Economists' Hour.

EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to Premium Subscribers. The $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber helps EconoFact bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription here: https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157

President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August 2025, claiming without evidence that the agency's data were "rigged." One consequence of the firing was an erosion of trust in data that businesses, investors, and policymakers depend on. A recent paper (https://www.nber.org/papers/w35135) quantifies the cost of this erosion of trust, estimating that Commissioner McEntarfer's firing shrunk GDP by almost $20 billion, and reduced payroll employment by over 30,000 jobs. Two of the paper's co-authors, Erica Groshen and Michael Strain, join EconoFact Chats to discuss their findings, and more broadly, to highlight why it's extremely difficult for agencies to "rig" statistics, as well as what happens when elected officials undermine public trust in data.

Erica served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2013 to 2017 and is currently Senior Economics Advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Michael is Director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute.