Is the Federal Reserve Chair the most powerful person in the free world? In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller is joined by Lydia Newman (Director of Monetary Policy, AIER) and William Luther (Director of AIER's Sound Money Project) to analyze the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.

Together, they unpack Warsh's views on inflation, the Fed's nearly $7 trillion balance sheet, and the role of forward guidance—along with what "reform" might actually look like in practice. Along the way, they examine the Fed's evolving footprint in financial markets, the tension between independence and accountability, and whether current policy is contributing to today's affordability challenges.

From interest rates and stock markets to grocery bills and housing costs, this episode breaks down how decisions made in Washington ripple through everyday life—and what a different approach to monetary policy could mean for the economy going forward.

Shownotes (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s)

0:00 – Is the Fed Chair the most powerful person in finance? 1:24 – Who is Kevin Warsh? 7:17 – Warsh's views on inflation and the balance sheet 12:53 – The problem with forward guidance and dot plots 25:57 – Can one person really change the FOMC? 37:59 – AI, shocks, and the future of the US economy 44:51 – Why the Fed needs to get out of the MBS business 52:35 – Making the Fed boring again

In this episode, Paul and his guests discuss the following: The All-Star Nominee: Kevin Warsh's journey from the youngest-ever Fed Governor at 35 to the potential next Chair Monetary Policy Reform: Why Warsh is skeptical of dot plots and favors a laser focus on price stability Shrinking the Footprint: The plan to get the Fed out of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) business and reduce its outsized role in credit allocation Independence vs. Accountability: Balancing the Fed's need for insulation from politics with the public's right to transparency The K-Shaped Economy: How past Fed policy decisions contributed to the current affordability crisis in housing, healthcare, and education Political Theater: How ongoing criminal investigations and Supreme Court cases are impacting the current transition of power Stay Connected:

Follow Paul Mueller: Senior Research Fellow at AIER. Follow The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) Subscribe: to The Economist Next Door for more deep dives into policy and economics. #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #Economics #Inflation #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #Finance #AIER #Podcast

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In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller is joined by AIER colleagues Lydia Mashburn Newman and Pete Earle to discuss the 2008 financial crisis, from the collapse of Bear Stearns to the failure of Lehman Brothers and the emergency response to AIG.

They examine how shifting government actions created uncertainty during the crisis, and how the Federal Reserve's response—near-zero interest rates, liquidity facilities, and large-scale asset purchases—transformed monetary policy and reshaped financial markets for the next decade.

How do these monetary decisions and decimal points affect the everyday lives of Americans? Listen and find out!

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In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller speaks with Jeff Degner and Aidan Grogan about the global fertility crisis and the sharp decline in family formation across advanced economies. Are falling birth rates primarily an affordability problem—or the result of deeper cultural changes?

The conversation connects inflation, housing costs, and economic uncertainty with delayed marriage, shifting fertility preferences, and the emergence of dating apps as large-scale matching platforms that alter incentives, selection, and relationship formation. The discussion also introduces the concept of an "inflation culture" and its potential effects on time preference, planning horizons, and family decisions.

The episode closes by examining what population decline means for economic growth, social cohesion, and the future of government.

In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller sits down with Nobel Prize–winning economist Vernon Smith to explore how markets actually work—and how people really behave within them.

Smith, who received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002 for pioneering experimental economics, explains how simple market experiments reveal powerful truths: prices emerge from decentralized interactions, markets converge toward equilibrium even with limited information, and people learn quickly through exchange and experience.

The conversation goes beyond economics into philosophy, drawing on Adam Smith's The Theory of Moral Sentiments and The Wealth of Nations. Smith argues that economic order is rooted in moral psychology, social norms, and bottom-up rules formed through everyday human interaction.

From asset bubbles to spontaneous order, this episode offers a deeper look at markets not just as engines of wealth, but as systems of discovery, learning, and human cooperation.

SHOW NOTES

WN - ​An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations [Cannan Edition (Vol. 1 & 2)](https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/smith-an-inquiry-into-the-nature-and-causes-of-the-wealth-of-nations-cannan-ed-in-2-vols TMS - https://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smMS.html Nobel lecture - https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1061&context=esi_pubs Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets - https://www.academia.edu/17750757/Bubbles_Crashes_and_Endogenous_Expectations_in_Experimental_Spot_Asset_Markets Asset Bubbles, Learning and Information - https://www.academia.edu/17767320/Stock_market_bubbles_in_the_laboratory

In this episode of The Economist Next Door, Paul Mueller is joined by AIER colleagues Julia Cartwright and Ryan Yonk for a wide-ranging conversation on the past, present, and future of American energy.

They explore how energy is produced in the United States, why the diversity of U.S. energy sources makes the system unusually robust, and how regulation and subsidies can undermine that strength.

The trio compares US and Chinese energy systems, unpacks the politics of "green" mandates and subsidies, and explains why nuclear power—especially advanced and small modular reactors—may be essential for both reliability and decarbonization. Along the way, they discuss the Trump administration's recent energy moves, the backlog of projects waiting to connect to the grid, and why letting markets—not politicians—pick winners is crucial for innovation and affordability.

Key Topics

• Why energy is central to prosperity, productivity, and everyday life
• How the US generates its electricity today (natural gas, nuclear, coal, wind, solar, hydro)
• What makes the US energy system unusually robust compared with other countries
• How global shocks (like conflict near Iran and the Strait of Hormuz) affect US prices
• US vs. China: production numbers, reliability, central planning, and data skepticism
• Why regulatory layering, permitting delays, and interconnection bottlenecks stall new projects
• The mixed legacy of subsidies and mandates for wind, solar, and other favored technologies
• The role of utilities, "natural monopolies," and why customers often lack real choice
• How deregulation and competition in some gas and power markets have benefited consumers
• Nuclear power's promise, the rise of advanced and small modular reactors, and why the US risks falling behind
• The Trump administration's recent actions on drilling permits, nuclear, and renewable subsidies
• Why technology-neutral, market-driven policy is better than "energy favoritism"

Key Takeaways

• The United States has a broad, diverse mix of energy sources, which provides resilience even when global markets are disrupted.
• Heavy regulatory layering, slow permitting, and grid interconnection hurdles have created a large backlog of viable projects that could otherwise expand capacity and lower prices.
• Subsidies and mandates—whether for fossil fuels, wind, solar, or nuclear—distort markets, pick winners and losers, and often raise costs for consumers while reducing innovation.
• Comparisons to China's headline energy statistics can be misleading; central planning, unreliable rural grids, and questionable data all complicate the picture.
• Nuclear energy, especially advanced and small modular designs, is a promising path for abundant, low-carbon power, but US policy on fuel, safety rules, and subsidies heavily shapes what gets built.
• Long-run energy reliability and affordability are best served by open markets, clear and limited safety regulation, and allowing entrepreneurs and consumers—not bureaucrats—to decide the energy mix.

Featured Guests Julia Cartwright – Senior Fellow at AIER, specializing in energy policy and technology-neutral regulation. She has recently written on ending "energy favoritism" and the risks of US policy falling behind China in advanced nuclear.

• Ryan Yonk – Senior Fellow at AIER and director of student programs, working in the public-choice tradition with a focus on energy and environmental regulation. He is coauthor of The Reality of American Energy: The Hidden Costs of Electricity Policy.

Resources & Links Mentioned

• Ryan Yonk, The Reality of American Energy: The Hidden Costs of Electricity Policy
• Julia R. Cartwright, "Ending the Era of Energy Favoritism: How Technology-Neutral Policy Can Unlock the US Power Grid," American Institute for Economic Research
• Julia R. Cartwright, "America Risks Losing the Advanced Nuclear Race to China," AZ Free News • Ryan Yonk, The Reality of American Energy: The Hidden Costs of Electricity Policy https://www.leslibraires.ca/livres/the-reality-of-american-energy-the-hidden-costs-of-electricity-policy-9781440853913
• Julia R. Cartwright, "Ending the Era of Energy Favoritism: How Technology-Neutral Policy Can Unlock the US Power Grid," American Institute for Economic Research, 2026.https://aier.org/article/ending-the-era-of-energy-favoritism-how-technology-neutral-policy-can-unlock-the-us-power-grid/
• Julia R. Cartwright, "America Risks Losing the Advanced Nuclear Race to China," AZ Free News, January 19, 2026. https://azfreenews.com/2026/01/julia-cartwright-america-risks-losing-the-advanced-nuclear-race-to-china/

In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller is joined by AIER research fellows Thomas Savidge and Julia Cartwright to examine the push for wealth taxes in the United States and around the world.

They explain how wealth taxes differ from traditional taxes on income and consumption, and what history reveals about their real-world effects. Drawing on examples from California, New York, and Europe, the discussion highlights capital flight, revenue volatility, and the unintended consequences of taxing accumulated wealth.

The episode also tackles common claims about billionaires "not paying their fair share," unpacks the complexity of the tax code, and explains why taxes aimed at the ultra-wealthy rarely stay confined to their original targets.

From the Smaug fallacy to the Tiebout Effect, the conversation introduces listeners to the economic ideas behind the debate—and shows how a seemingly "common sense" policy can carry serious consequences for growth, investment, and living standards.

How did a once-small federal government come to control a third of state budgets and shape everyday life across the country? Host Paul Mueller talks with AIER scholars Tom Savidge and Dave Hebert about the history of federal funding to states—from the Founding through the Great Society—and how Washington gradually became the dominant force in American governance.

As the saying goes, he who pays the piper calls the tune. Listen in to discover the real impact of federal dollars on state decision-making.

Key Themes: * **The Piper Principle:** Why "voluntary" federal money is never actually free. * **The Identity Crisis:** How mobility and federal expansion have shifted our loyalty from state to nation. * **Legalized Money Laundering:** A deep dive into the $10,000-for-$1,000 Medicaid matching game that is bankrupting the federal treasury while subsidizing state-level expansion. Recommended Reading:

• A Brief History of Federal Transfers to the States by Thomas Savidge
• Understanding Medicaid by Thomas Savidge
• The Return of Quantitative Easing by Paul Mueller
• Defusing the Social Security Time Bomb by Thomas Savidge
• Fusionism: Past, Present, and a Conservative Liberal Future by Paul Mueller

On the 250th anniversary of The Wealth of Nations, host Paul Mueller sits down with economists Dan Klein, professor at George Mason University and chief editor of Econ Journal Watch, and Eric Matson, senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center and lecturer at Catholic University, to explore Adam Smith's enduring impact.

They discuss Smith as both an academic and a moral authority, the lessons of The Wealth of Nations for modern economics and public policy, the invisible hand, the limits of government intervention, and why Smith's insights on markets, human behavior, and social coordination still matter today.

Along the way, the thinkers break down the real Adam Smith—not the caricature or "free-market fundamentalist" often invoked in modern debates, but a nuanced and deeply thoughtful observer of human nature and human action.

Host Paul Mueller interviews AIER President Dr. Sam Gregg and AIER scholar Dr. Dave Hebert on a landmark Supreme Court decision that reshapes presidential tariff authority.

In Learning Resources v. Trump, the Court ruled 6–3 that the president cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a blank check to impose tariffs. Paul and his guests break down why the ruling is a win for the rule of law, explore whether tariffs are better seen as foreign policy or taxation, and explain what the "major questions doctrine" really means. They also discuss trade deficits and possible legal workarounds.

Will the Supreme Court's ruling prove to be a constitutional reset or just a minor hurdle to the president's trade agenda? Listen and find out!

Paul Mueller breaks down the Supreme Court's ruling limiting presidential tariff power with Tom Savidge and Julia Cartwright, and what it means for executive authority.

Then, Tom, Pete Earle, and Jason Sorens dive into America's housing shortages, rising insurance costs, and exploding public pension obligations—exploring how political promises today can saddle taxpayers across generations.

Debt, policy activism, and uncertainty collide—who really pays the price?