The economy, stupid? Or maybe not? As Americans cast their votes for President they will be in part both passing judgment on the economic record of the last four years and signaling the type of policies they want for the next four. Donald Trump is promising solutions through tariffs and a range of tax cuts, while Kamala Harris says she will offer handouts for first-time homebuyers, middle-class tax cuts and what she calls “the opportunity economy.” More importantly Republicans point to inflation and interest rates higher than they were four years ago and say Bidenomics has failed while Democrats claim continuing growth and low unemployment vindicate their policies.

On this episode of the Free Expression podcast, economist and head of global research at the Carlyle Group Jason Thomas tells Wall Street Journal editor at large Gerry Baker about how it would take “an outside shock” for the economy to fall into recession, where interest rates might move next and why Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China could be a successful strategy.

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