The Education of a Value Investor

In this gripping segment, Eric Schaanning and Guy Spier delve into the complex world of interest rate risk, revealing how seemingly straightforward banking practices can quickly turn into high-stakes dilemmas. Schaanning breaks down how banks forecast deposit behaviours, merging historical trends with expert judgment. He explains that as interest rates fluctuate, customer preferences shift dramatically—rising rates lure them into term deposits for better returns, while declining rates send them back to the safety of site deposits.

But the intrigue doesn’t stop there. The duo uncovers the hidden layers of behavioural modelling in assessing credit risk, identifying subtle signals that may indicate a customer’s financial distress. Changes in spending habits and payment timing can serve as critical warning signs, shedding light on the delicate balance banks must maintain to safeguard their portfolios. Spier interjects with essential advice for individuals grappling with financial strain, emphasizing the power of communication and proactive payment management.

As the conversation reaches its climax, Schaanning reveals a shocking twist: a seemingly lucrative fixed-rate loan could morph into a devastating loss due to unexpected interest rate spikes. With banks grappling to adapt in an ever-shifting economic landscape, the stakes are higher than ever. This tantalizing cliffhanger sets the stage for their next discussion, where risk management strategies and survival tactics will be put to the test in the face of looming financial uncertainties.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/jtbtn9zjhaebq9eh

Here's a link to the presentation: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5007032

Contents:

(00:00:00) Why banking Regulations Matter: A Dinner Table Explanation

(00:08:50) Calculating Net Interest Income with a Simple Example

(00:14:22) Fixed vs. Floating Rate Loans: Cash Flow Dynamics

(00:22:19) Balance Sheet Management: Shifting Between Income and Capital

(00:29:47) Interest Rate Swaps and Market Liquidity 

(00:37:57) Exploring Risk Measurement and Gap Profiles in Banking 

(00:40:52) Navigating Liquidity Risk and Redemption Dynamics in Investment Funds 

(00:48:24) Understanding Interest Rate Risk and Behavioural Modelling in Banking

In this episode, we continue our exploration of financial risk management with Eric Schaanning, a thought leader in the field. Following his dynamic insights from the previous discussion, Eric delves into the intricacies of treasury functions within major banks and their critical role in risk management. Together with Guy Spier, they unravel how a small treasury team, despite its size, manages significant financial risks compared to the larger pool of relationship managers.  

Listeners will gain a clear understanding of complex concepts like yield curves and risk spreads, as Eric adeptly explains their implications in today's banking landscape. The duo examines the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) scenarios for interest rate shocks, pondering whether current banking models can adequately address extreme interest rate fluctuations.  

As they venture into discussions on net interest income (NII) and the economic value of equity (EVE), Eric shares his expertise on how these concepts can be applied to personal finance, making the conversation relevant for individuals navigating their own financial landscapes. With an engaging blend of practical knowledge and theoretical insight, this episode offers valuable perspectives that push the boundaries of traditional risk management. Tune in for another captivating dialogue that not only expands your understanding of financial systems but also equips you with practical tools for managing your financial future!

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/dyu45ikdqvarwf5p

Here's a link to the presentation: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5007032

Contents: 

(00:00:00) Navigating Interest Rate Risks: A Deep Dive into Bank Balance Sheets

(00:08:57) Measuring Interest Rate Risk: Insights into NII, EVE, and Bank Profitability

(00:17:09) Banking on Transparency: The Impact of Regulatory Frameworks opn Financial Institutions  

(00:31:18) Gap Risk in Banking: Insights from the Delta EVE Measure and Silicon Valley Bank

(00:39:56) From Crisis to Regulation: The Evolution of Interest Rate Risk Management

(00:53:52) Balancing Act: Large Banks, Regulation, and Operational Challenges  

(00:59:21) Bridging Capital and Growth: Perspectives on Modern Banking  

(01:23:55) Treasury Functions Unveiled: The Backbone of Risk Management in Banking  

(01:29:02) Understanding Interest Rate Shocks: A Comprehensive Look at the BCBC Scenarios

Eric Schaanning is a dynamic figure in financial risk management, known for his innovative approach to navigating the complexities of market and valuation risk. Leading these critical functions for Nordea Group, Eric blends a wealth of experience with a forward-thinking mindset. His career spans impressive roles, including overseeing risk management for UBS and Credit Suisse in Zurich, where he dealt with the high-stakes world of managing risk across massive deposit and loan portfolios.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/bxtu77b955d6grcy  

Here's a link to the presentation: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5007032

Contents:

(00:00:00) Asset Liability Management & Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book  

(00:06:03) A Case Study in Interest Rate Risk and Asset-Liability Mismatches

(00:14:24) Liquidity, Insolvency, and Interest Rate Risk  

(00:20:15) The Mechanics of Bank Balance Sheets

(00:32:24) Bank Balance Sheets, Loan Reporting, and Equity Capital  

(00:49:28) Exploring the Dynamics of Fractional Reserve Banking, Interest Rate Risk, and Regulatory Frameworks

(01:03:30) From Pillar One to Pillar Three: Regulatory Safeguards and Banking Risk

Simon Kold is a Danish entrepreneur and investor who’s making waves in the financial world with his firm, Kold Investments. Before founding Kold Investments, Simon spent over a decadeatNovo Holdings, a powerhouse investment firm managing around €150billionin assets. His approach to investing is anything but ordinary. Simon runs a single-strategy, concentrated public equityfirm that focuses on companies with network effectsandscale advantages, a strategy that sets him apart from the crowd. He’s all about finding businesses that have the power to grow and dominate in their sectors.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/akcftczb463rhcam

Contents:

(00:00:01) Stand-Up, Fall Down, Get Back Up: Lessons from Comedy and Life

(00:13:47) From Stand-Up to Stocks: The Unlikely Path

(00:30:30) Falsification, Not Verification: Rethinking Investment Strategies

(00:53:30) Tattooed in Business: The Long-Term Rewards of Relentless Commitment

(01:02:57) The Evolving Landscape of Business: Insights on Leadership and Network Effects

(01:20:47) Demutualization: Unlocking Hidden Value in Financial Infrastructure

(01:26:07) Network Effects, Brand Identity, and the Global Shifts Reshaping Investments

(01:37:33) Investing in Relationships: Timing, Goodwill, and Business Success

Tobias Carlisle, an Australian investor and founder of Acquirers Funds, LLC, also shares his personal journey—from his beginnings as a corporate advisory lawyer in Australia to his transition into investing inspired by Warren Buffett. His career spans roles as an activist hedge fund analyst and general counsel, leading up to his authorship of Deep Value, Quantitative Value, and Concentrated Investing.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/ziv6die4mhrta2ud

Contents:

(00:00:01) The Journey from Australia to the States 

(00:03:20) A Career Start in Law

(00:07:01) The Transition to Investing

(00:14:46) Exchange traded Funds vs. Mutual Funds

(00:27:31) The Important of Risk of Ruin

(00:31:12) On Tobias’s Books

(00:36:33) The Disciple of Writing

(00:45:26) Tobias on His Portfolio Construction

(00:58:17) Historical Fictions

Jo Boaler is a British author and Professor of Mathematics Education at Stanford University. Jo is involved in promoting reform mathematics and equitable mathematics classrooms, and thereby fulfils a role of communicating to broader society outside of academics. Beside her new book Math-ish, she is also the author of the books Limitless Mind, The Elephant in the Classroom and other books on learning and education. 

Jo talks to Guy about visual approaches to teaching maths, covering the role of a growth mindset in learning maths, which can be developed from early on. They also touch on the importance of talent and genes versus the mindset we approach things with and on some barriers in teaching.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/g7uc3eypdnvhz7fr

Contents:

(00:00) Introduction of Jo Boaler 

(01:52) Teaching Mathematics: A Visual Approach 

(10:16) The Illusion of Knowledge 

(20:33) Developing a Growth Mindset 

(26:02) Lessons Outside of Mathematics 

(30:51) Genes vs. Mentality 

(38:40) Differences Between the UK and the US 

(43:45) Gender Barriers 

(48:10) Further Resources 

Morgan Housel is the New York Times Bestselling author of The Psychology of Money and Same as Ever and a popular finance blogger. His books have sold over 4.5 million copies and have been translated into more than 50 languages. He is also a partner at The Collaborative Fund and serves on the board of directors at Markel. 

He talks to Guy Spier about the concept of writing for oneself, the slow way to approach reading and how to help the process of connecting ideas. Other topics discussed include skiing, beauties of the United States and the importance of sample size.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/4u4kmcmsm3k8rccq

Contents:

(00:00:00) The Beauty and the Dangers of Skiing

(00:04:58) Insights from Same as Ever

(00:09:55) Selfish Writing

(00:18:53) Ways to Approach the Writing Process

(00:23:17) Inner Scorecard

(00:30:45) Connecting Ideas

(00:38:18) The Art of Reading Slowly

(00:41:31) Fiction vs. Nonfiction

(00:52:11) The Importance of Sample Size

(00:54:19) Everyone is on their Own Path

(00:59:43) Poetry

(01:07:15) The United States and New York City

Luca Dellanna is a management advisor and an author from Turin, Italy. His books cover topics ranging across management, human behavior, and economics. He talks to Guy Spier about his early career, his research on ergodicity and some topics from his other books, including autism and the difference of decision making and action taking in our brains.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/r5q6w9tq7e2b8aqb

Contents:

(00:00:00) Introduction 

(00:07:38) The Concept of Ergodicity 

(00:14:31) Extrapolation Over Time Horizons 

(00:21:22) Luck or Skill? 

(00:24:50) Maximizing the Worst Outcome 

(00:31:32) Uncertainty and Risk Management 

(00:39:09) Diversification as a Practical Tool 

(00:43:09) Personal Knowledge Management Tools 

(00:48:56) Decision Making vs. Action Taking 

(00:58:09) Autism and the Idea of the Magnifying Glass 

(01:02:54) Luca’s Professional Career 

(01:08:38) The History of Turin

Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris are professors of psychology, both experts in the fields of cognitive science and experimental psychology. They are also known as the co-authors of the famous book The Invisible Gorilla, and the inventors of the homonymous psychological experiment. 12 years from the release of their first book they have partnered again, co-writing Nobody's Fool: Why We Get Taken In and What We Can Do about It. This book illustrates through a series of stories why we fall victim to deception and provides practical tools to help the reader know when to question their beliefs.

In this conversation, Simons and Chabris give the listener a taste of their new book. They provide insights on how we can arm ourselves against stories that do not reflect reality and how to improve our ability to realize when we are in front of a critical decision. Topics discussed also include social pressure, manifesting, self-help books, and chess. 

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/58jfj8tt73uqqajy

Contents:

(00:00:01) From “The Invisible Gorilla” to “Nobody’s Fool”

(00:04:30) When Should We Question Our Intuition?

(00:20:29) The Power of a Good Partnership

(00:23:54) The Time-Reversal Heuristic 

(00:31:48) When the Story is Nicer Than Reality 

(00:49:13) Social Pressure: A Potent Tool 

(00:55:57) Luxury Goods and the Concept of Familiarity 

(01:01:00) Manifesting: Is it Harmless? 

(01:06:53) How to Approach Self-Help Books 

(01:11:01) The Fields of Psychology 

(01:19:35) On Chess, Bridge, and Poker 

Ben Feder is an investor and games executive, currently managing partner at TIRTA Ventures. He is also the author of the book Take Off Your Shoes: One Man's Journey from the Boardroom to Bali and Back. Ben formerly served as the CEO of Take-Two Interactive and was President of International Partnerships for North America at Tencent Games.

Ben talks to Guy about his early career in the media industry, the time he was part of the successful takeover of Take-Two Interactive, and his newly launched venture capital firm TIRTA. Some other topics include video games, artificial intelligence, and the world of streaming.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/vst3ch75vk2n2sdv

Contents:

(00:00:00) Introduction 

(00:02:19) The Start of a Successful Career 

(00:08:13) Choosing Between Business School and a Ph.D. 

(00:11:36) How to Be a Good Leader 

(00:18:36) The Takeover of Take-Two Interactive 

(00:26:23) Streamers vs. Owners of Content 

(00:29:41) Should Authors Self-Publish? 

(00:38:00) The World of Video Games 

(00:47:13) Artificial Intelligence as a Productivity Tool 

(00:55:02) TIRTA’s Place in the Venture Capital Space 

(00:59:59) Some Thoughts on Psychotherapy 

(01:03:47) Jewish Identity and Interconnectedness