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Israel’s 12-day war with Iran upended years of assumptions and may have rewritten the rules of deterrence — but the aftermath could prove more dangerous than the war itself.

As Tehran absorbs the shock of defeat, it now faces a stark choice: regroup, retaliate, or retreat. The regime’s next move will determine whether this war was a turning point — or merely an intermission.

Retired Maj. Gen. Tal Kelman is one of Israel’s most accomplished fighter pilots and one of its top Iran strategists. He didn’t just help plan Operation Rising Lion — he flew missions in it.

Now a colleague at FDD, he joins host Mark Dubowitz to unpack Israel’s air campaign — including a damage assessment of the Islamic Republic's nuclear program — and discern what comes next as Tehran faces hard choices related to its missile forces, proxy network, and nuclear ambitions amidst growing ties with China and Russia and no clear “day after” in sight.